Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[ilostthelot] 28/8/2019 15:54

I've bought back in at 80c. Here's hoping i bring luck.

[tightfist] 23/8/2019 08:25

Yes, I was taking a look at Active vs Passive managers the other day and it’s interesting to see Ruffer’s IMO great and agile performance and the way in which it appears to be re-shaping it’s portfolio.

Steve, thanks for your notes, will respond ASAP. I hope that Ruffer are gearing-up to interpret and respond to the year-end MML numbers that are due next week. I certainly intend to play my part.

Cheers, tightfist

[galeforce1] 23/8/2019 07:44

RT - thanks for that.

It's reassuring to see Ruffer adding over 2 million shares.

A definite vote of confidence in MML from a cautious asset manager with good knowledge on goldminers.

[roguetreader] 22/8/2019 15:53

I see Ruffer have upped their stake:



RT

[stevea171] 20/8/2019 19:17

Tightfist. Yes, they operate in secrecy in their own little world.

Miningnut's commentary suggests to me he was present at the AGM and was hoping to get rid of Teo with resolution 1 which was re-election of a director. In this case Teo who was both CEO and Chairman at the time. I always thought this was a long shot in the circumstances.

I can't confirm what Miningnut says about Teo drawing 2 salaries for 8 months whilst he was CEO and Chairman. I looked in the Interim A/c's and saw nothing there but he is a highly reliable source so he must have picked this up from elsewhere. Also this is the second time he has said this. The FY accounts in a week or so should shed some light on this matter.

Same with the $30 million of VAT refunds. In the Interim accounts there seems to be a low tax rate that may be in lieu of getting the VAT refunded. $2 million plus item. (The accounts are very poorly explained and there is no opportunity to question them except attending the AGM in Perth.) But if you have taken the VAT non refund by paying reduced tax, I don't know that you could effectively get it twice. Also I don't know how many years he would have gone back to calculate this figure.

Resolution 2 (Directors' remuneration) had 56.5 million voting against. With the top 2 shareholders, Arbiter and Ruffer holding 28% that is 58 million plus votes. Add in Miningnut's 4 million and you get to 62 million without anyone else. If just those 3 shareholders voted all their shares in the same way next time it seems there would be a good chance of a similar result unless the BoD can get a lot more support with shareholders voting and voting to support them. The main way they could do this is by enticement eg some kind of dividend statement - the lower the better from their point of view. Perhaps 1%. Would this be enough?

[tightfist] 20/8/2019 15:53

Many thanks Steve,
My immediate reaction is to the last paragraph with “stuff the public shareholders, the BoD will carry on regardless” but maybe some more productive thoughts will flow in a few hours time....
Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 14/8/2019 14:29

O/T – cheap miners!: MML currently has a MC of £96m and AISC of around $97 (H2) at 103kOz
Serabi Gold (SRB – quoted in London and Toronto) has a MC of £38m and AISC of $1,085 at 40kOz pa, before expansion). It is highly cash generative. It is focussed and about to RNS it’s expansion PEA for a third mine start-up which will take it a long way towards its strategic aim of 100kOz pa run-rate by end 2020 – timing seems optimistic?. Whether it can get there with absolutely no dilution remains to be seen – or just loans?

The BoD members have a strong mining background and are communicative too; see brr media – on a different planet to the MML BoD (which seems to have removed pre-2015 announcements from it’s website..….).

Cheers, tightfist

[andypar] 14/8/2019 11:41

Taking a POG of 1430 and a share price of AUD 0.83.

I'm forecasting:

Cash at quarter-end of $30m.

Cash at year-end $50m

Profit for the year $40m.

Market cap $117m.
PE ratio <3.
Enterprise value $67m (market cap less forecast cash at year end).
Enterprise value / cashflow = <3.

I cannot believe there are any cheaper miners out there ???????

Please lets have an RNS that mentions a divi in the next if the POG stays over $1400. We need some PR desperately.

The VAT balance of $30m is refundable, although the Phil tax authorities will try and wriggle out of paying as much as they can. Some of it is very old.

[atlantic57] 08/8/2019 17:05

Thanks folks

[tightfist] 08/8/2019 14:32

O/T: Yes, IMHO AIM and TSX listed (but stamp duty eligible!)Serabi Gold SRB is very well worth looking into; modest MC of £36m, operating very cash generative, reasonable AISC, Stockopedia score of 84, committed communicative BoD. The PEA to enable expansion to ~100kOz pa is now due at end August, potential beyond to be explored.
Lots of info on the thread (me, PPVN, 74tom, etc) (that frequently seems to get distracted by the PoG micro-movements!). Also very regular brr media updates.

Good luck! tightfist

[rogash] 08/8/2019 14:24

The best I think is highland gold.

[atlantic57] 08/8/2019 12:33

Does anyone have a liking for any particular London listed gold miners
Thanks

[stevea171] 08/8/2019 11:21

Yes, "Miningnut" is a very clued up professional investor who posts on HC. He has been a LT investor in MML with 4 million shares bought over a period at low prices. He says he is now starting to unload as he's in profit and with the price increase the holding is unbalancing his portfolio.

Medusa records:
5 Miningnut Pty Ltd 4,240,000 2.04%

"Thought: how about a limited tender offer at significantly more than today’s sp?"
How would this work?

Miningnut is 'on the ground' in Auz who knows about ASX regulations and it seems knows how to remove a BoD. This would presumably involve Ruffer and Arbiter (approx 25% combined) plus others to make up 50% to vote down the AGM remuneration resolution as happened last year, followed by an EGM to vote out AT and Co. and replace them with appointments of choice. You would need some heavy weight large holders to combine to bring this about. I don't know if we have the motivation or people on the shareholder register to take action.

[tightfist] 08/8/2019 10:43

Hi Steve,

Thanks for the info; great to hear of another ii ramping-up on the rise, shame about the passive behaviour interpretation! The total institutional holding must be ratcheting-up; hopefully AT foresees a disruptive power base forming!

Interesting thought about a forthcoming AGM challenge; after all this time and patience I, for one, am not prepared to see OUR cash squandered away. Thought: how about a limited tender offer at significantly more than today’s sp?

I am guessing “MiningnutR21; is an HC poster - correct?

Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 08/8/2019 08:20

Hi Steve, thanks from me too for the VAT info, another bit of MML opaqueness? Just imagine where we could be with a proper Chairperson! tightfist

[deka1] 08/8/2019 06:28

Steve thanks for that info.

[noirua] 08/8/2019 00:33

MML are miles behind most other gold stocks in Australia. Looking at RMS closing at $1.35 up from 4c a few years back. Even laggard Red5 is up from 4c to close at 30.5c.
Looking for a sharp move at Medusa to $1.50.

[stevea171] 07/8/2019 08:35

This is getting to be a habit!
Another 1.1 million traded over night for +3c rise to 90c in the closing auction.

It seems Teo is holding the company back in more ways than one. As well as the now $42 million of gold in tailings pond TSF#1 that he's made no plans for since the assessment in 2015 there is now the small matter of $30 million in VAT refunds that the company is staying stum about.

Yes, according to Miningnut, our top 5 shareholder, this is the position:

"I believe the TRAIN law that was passed by the Philippines Govt and took effect from 1Jan19 allows Companies to apply for refunds of VAT that had previously been held by Tax Compliance Certificates(TCC's). Medusa held over $US30mil($A45mil) in TCC's at 31Dec18 and could be about to turn this into cash.
Unfortunately Medusa has been silent on this matter, even though I believe it is price sensitive information that should be disclosed to the market."

TRAIN law.


To implement the amendments introduced by the TRAIN Law, the BIR issued Revenue Memorandum Circular (RMC) No. 47-2019, providing revised guidelines and requirements for VAT refund claims within a 90-day period. The introduction of the 90-day period for applications lodged after the TRAIN Law took effect on Jan. 1, 2019, effectively removing the “deemed denied” provision under RMC No. 54-2014, which clarified the issues on the application for VAT refund under Section 112 of the Tax Code.

[naughtynicky72] 07/8/2019 02:43

Gold On The Rise !

[deka1] 06/8/2019 12:28

Good luck to us all guys.

[stevea171] 06/8/2019 11:40

GG. lol! Yes, I'm one of them ....

TF. We certainly have learnt a lot about patience as you say.
The US on the other hand has been on a different planet. Multi bagging with many hyped but never made a profit, near worthless, IPO's, FAANG stocks, countless new record closures for all the main indices - Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, etc.

Very well done to be in profit at last.

[tightfist] 06/8/2019 10:30

Hi Steve,

Thanks for the summary of activity - we have learnt something about patience! Having averaged-down 14 times, I went into profit last night. IIRC I have been continuously underwater since the cancellation of the London listing was announced 6? years ago....(though I have completed a few small profitable trades along the way).

Now the next challenge is that it's become my largest holding within my portfolio... A different sort of problem!

Cheers, tightfist

[goodgrief] 06/8/2019 09:37

"It seems this is the beginning for many LT holders getting their money back?!"


... that's going to be a long road!!