Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[rhuvaal2] 22/9/2019 16:25

I am heartened by Ruffer increasing its stake a short while ago

[deka1] 22/9/2019 07:41

CTR hi , the way I read it the 5000 price was expected in the nearer term -say 5 years
or so imo,and the 25000 was say 20/25 years in the future,i suppose if we look at the price of gold 20 years ago -it was around 200, now its over 1500- so a rise of a factor of 7-so if it rises at the same rate over the next 20 years it would be around 10,500/oz---- inflation ,less global reserves ---conflicts etc.
So imo its very possible, good talking to you .

As always timing is the KEY- at what price do we sell before the worst senareo happens , we must not be to greedy --lets ask a what price would Medusa share price be with gold at 3000- 4000/oz,anyone done the numbers please.

[deka1] 21/9/2019 07:18

CTR your 948, that would be the most likely outcome,imo

[crossing_the_rubicon] 20/9/2019 18:34

In the event of Gold at $25,000/oz would nation states just nationalise the gold miners???

ie Philippines - MEdusa
Egypt - CEY
Russia - HGM, Polymetal

African nations - Much of Barrick/Randgold?

[sparkey_two] 20/9/2019 18:19

And the world would be burning...

[noirua] 20/9/2019 15:23

#Gold could reach highs of $25,000 - Pierre Lassonde @KitcoNewsNOW


If this proves correct then MML could reach $100.00...

[stevea171] 19/9/2019 22:57

Miningnut comment.

Can't add much to your excellent summary except to highlight that the next Tailings storage facility(TSF) is due to start construction early 2020(bottom pg16 Annual report) and could be the project that sucks out the most cash from the expected operating cashflow surpluses this financial year.

And I can't help going over old ground - we were told in Note 9 to the Remuneration Report last year that Boyd Timler received a retirement benefit of $US277,457 which was equivalent to eight months salary - this amount was confirmed in this year's Remuneration Report. His original employment contract(ASX announcement dated 5Apr16) stated four months notice could be given by Medusa, so don't understand why double the amount was paid out for somebody that supposedly 'retired' after only two years employment.

Of course that pales into insignificance when they expense $US10mil+ in a VAT write-off this year without any explanation to shareholders.

[stevea171] 19/9/2019 22:35

Galeforce. As usual Teo is going about things by stealth. His communications are full of non-disclosure and secrecy with back sliding on everything. He has demonstrated he is not prepared to be straight with shareholders about the company's plans or thinking now or ever.

L8 shaft is now for ore and waste only.
The new Services Shaft was to be for men, equipment and part time for ore but is now said not to be used for ore.
Both these shafts are needed to be operational at all times to give the 100k oz of gold output that is all the company is targeting rather than the 130-140k oz minimum that was expected.
If you try to deepen the L8 shaft to L16 you take it out of operation for years and production falls to a fraction of current 100k oz. Also the above ground winder and structure are not designed to go below L8.
The winzes will lift ore/waste from L9, 10, 11, 12 to the L8 shaft for extraction.
For levels below L12 something else is needed.

L16 shaft was proposed about 5 years ago but never built. The plan was shelved and replaced by the building of a Services Shaft that was initially to be to L8 also but after a year or so was redesigned to go deeper to L10. It took 3 and a half years to build at an undisclosed cost.

[galeforce1] 19/9/2019 21:58

Steve - Your point 6, if correct, is depressing. Spending $50m on a new L16 shaft would consume our entire prospective annual profits and delay again that tantalising moment when patient MML shareholders might be able to expect a dividend.
I imagined that following completion of the recent E14 shaft we were essentially done with large capital investments for a few years at least.
Is there any alternative to sinking a hugely expensive new shaft to L16? Can the E14 shaft be deepened perhaps?

[stevea171] 19/9/2019 12:32

Annual Report - initial observations:

1. No dividend policy and no dividend as others have pointed out despite the transformation of the company's operations and finances with completion of the Services shaft and huge surge in the gold price to $1500.

2. Q'ld copper prospect is a dud after 4 drills and withholding the drill results from the market until now (in the hope this will be lost in the rest of the report?). I have predicted this outcome a number of times here. Medusa has no near term viable projects to develop going forward so company development prospects are nil with this management.

"The assays from the 4 drill holes returned low values for copper and gold. The Company is now reviewing its options on the way forward with respect to this Project."

3. Ql'd gold prospect was to be drilled in Sept quarter but now put back to 2020 which will be 18 months after acquisition of 'drill ready' targets. This is typical of the stalling and prevarication we see all the time with this company.

4. Tailings project TSF#1. Recovery of the $40 million gold from here is no further forward after 4 years. No concrete plans have yet been made, just more wasted time and prevarication.

"A more detailed study is underway into the feasibility of mining and processing this material."

5. Royal Crowne Vein project. This project has gone into deep slumber like all the rest of them. No date for more drilling to prove up more resource to determine if this is a commercial project. It can be assumed follow on drilling will be at least a year after the last campaign.

"A follow-up (Phase 3) resource infill drilling program is proposed to increase and upgrade the current mineral resource."

6. L16 shaft. It seems this may be back in planning. It was estimated to cost $50 million years ago so will not be less today. With the botched planning and implementation of the Services Shaft to L8 then finally L10 it looks like we could have a rerun starting as soon as next year. At this stage they are reluctant to mention 'L16' but with the winzes all terminating at L12 or above how else could they be expecting to get the ore below this level to surface? It is a fair bet that all free cash will yet again be thrown at the mine whilst shareholders get nothing.

As we have seen with the services shaft, a L16 shaft will not result in an increase in production just more standing still of mine output and with the directors, managers, workers and contractors all benefiting at the expense of shareholders who are the owners of the company but have had their income terminated years ago and huge capital losses under these directors.

"Commenced a study to determine the best option for accessing and extracting the resources below Level 12. This study is expected to be completed in the first half of FY2020."

7. Recovery of $32 million VAT. No mention.

There has been a catalogue of slow and non delivery of projects and incompetence that these directors have presided over for many years. How much longer can this be allowed to continue?

[galeforce1] 19/9/2019 09:33

Pity to see no dividend here at MML, but this was predicted by well-informed contributors on HotCopper. Maybe next year, when we might see cash levels of $50-60m.

What does anyone think is a sensible Enterprise value for MML? Currently we are at MCap c. USD115m, Enterprise Value c USD90m.

That still looks very cheap despite the rapid rise in the last 12 months. If the POG holds at $1500 I can see this going to c. Mcap USD 200m, EV USD 140m.

That would be a share price of around AUD 1.4

[swallowsflysouth] 18/9/2019 11:50

They are really happy with their performance, somewhat enhanced by pog.
Looks like another failed external project in Australia, funded by us.
More mining operations upgrades required, they might even have enough money to fund them.
6 pages of community projects.

Quote - 'The Board has approved a Shareholder Communications Policy to promote effective communications with its shareholders and encourage effective participation at general meetings.'

At the Company’s 2018 AGM, the Remuneration Report for FY2018 was voted down by Shareholders
or their proxies for the following reasons:
(i) payment of cash bonuses on a lagging basis appeared at odds with company performance
and position;
(ii) unacceptable vesting period and insufficiently demanding performance hurdles; and
(iii) full vesting of options upon a change in control

13 pages of report about salaries and fees of 6 directors/executives in Remuneration Report.

A couple of one liners regarding no dividends and thanking investors for their support.

Seem to have plenty of gold, given pog they should be able to make a handsome profit in the coming year.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 18/9/2019 11:01

Annual Report hits the decks....



Not too shabby to my untrained eye.

Still waiting for a resumption of the divi.

[stevea171] 13/9/2019 20:36

Tightfist. More grist for the mill.
I was wrong about Miningnut attending the last Medusa AGM. He was recently asked about this and his reply was along the lines of: No, I wouldn't waste my time. I take it he is east coast based, probably in Sydney, so would have thousands of miles to get there. For what?!

Further up the thread I reported his view of the rejection of the AGM resolution of the directors remuneration (19/8):
"I believe the two largest shareholders last year were really voting against the amount being paid to the filipino Director, Raul Villanueva($US425k/$A625k) rather than the performance or salary of AT. It'll be interesting to see if they have a change of heart this year."

If this is true their rejection was not performance based of the company or Teo but specific to Villanueva which would put a different light on the ii's thinking.
But for me, it's hard to imagine the ii's are satisfied with the running of the company or with this BoD's performance.

Georgegeorge's comment about the Japanese taking a stake may relate to this event and comment from Miningnut (8/8):

"Realindex Investments is part of Colonial First State which was sold by Commonwealth Bank two weeks ago to Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp.
Realindex obviously being run by the same people and they've continued to buy MML after the sale.
Unfortunately to me this is disappointing news as this lot are not going to shake up the BOD as they are purely passive investors."

[tightfist] 13/9/2019 07:30

Hi Steve,

Being invested in MML is an exercise in serial frustration! To me it seems to be the ultimate gravy-train for a seemingly hands-off, increasingly geriatric, BoD who have NO mining proficiency between them? Is there any signal of prompting action from the ii’s through Hot Copper?

O/T: I’ll take a look at AAZ, seen good reports elsewhere.
I am also heavily invested in two (UK-listed!) goldies - SRB and increasingly ALTN. The SRB BoD is also the polar opposite of MML - hard-working, mining-competent, communicative, consistent, imaginative, expansive and utilising appropriate new technology - in a safer jurisdiction (Brasil). IMO a long way to go.
ALTN is a smaller ultra long-term holding; operated H1 at around break even; should IMO double production and break-out in H2. Is reportedly sat on ~11kOz at two adjacent deposits - all with a £18m MC and just announced a long-awaited £17m 6% loan to scale-up Phase 1 to 100kOz. Not so sure about the BoD competences to make it all happen? And majority family backing? Two CPR’s committed in next three weeks.

Plenty of fish in the micro-cap sea, leveraging PoG movement, even at this level. Cheers, tightfist

[stevea171] 12/9/2019 21:38

Tightfist. Yes, the silence coming from the company is deafening.

Since Michael Chang was appointed in the middle of last year there has been just 1 public presentation that we know of - the 121 Mining conference in Hong Kong last October. Nothing since, and importantly nothing in Auz. The other day I took a look at who is signed up for this year's 121 in Hong Kong. Medusa's name is not there. So what little public PR they did last year it seems they now intend to do zero this year.

Does this strike you that they are onto some significant finds in Q'ld? Or the complete opposite?

Imo the coming Annual Report is Teo's last chance to try to save himself if he is at all bothered. A dividend announcement may go down well with institutions and improve the investment environment going forward with the share price and volume. For me it would be too little, too late, but who knows about the votes that will count at the AGM?

A gold miner that is the polar opposite of Medusa is AAZ where I have a large holding. It is everything that MML is not and offers a lesson in how to be a successful company after going through difficult times, how the directors are large shareholders and intimately involved, and how to interact with and treat shareholders as valued partners. Again everything that MML is not.

There is plenty of value in Medusa that is not being realised. This BoD's has more than had their chance so the decent thing would be for them to resign, but if not removed could still be there in 10 years time with the company mining levels 20-25 at Co-O and nothing else going on .... !!

[tightfist] 11/9/2019 16:32

Hi Stevea,

There are many appropriate and reasonable questions to which we will likely NEVER get answers given MML’s multi-year track-record of lurching and opacity. Neither will we be provide with a joined-up and ambitious strategy - posters on this (and I anticipate Hot Copper) have more progressive and realistic ideas than this BoD.

So I am intrigued as to why you believe a meaningful dividend will be reinstated? In many respects I hope that AT continues to thumb-his-nose at the ii’s such that rapid and swift action is taken to remove AT and put some mature mining and global plc-seasoned management in his place with sufficient confidence to promote (or fire) the recent CEO appointee.

That’s my tuppenny worth! Cheers, tightfist

[stevea171] 07/9/2019 08:35

Thanks Deka. Thanks guys.

Countdown.
The next few months will be critical to see if this BoD's can survive intact.

Probably first up will be the Annual Report at the end of Sept. Here a dividend policy should be announced with a first dividend paid soon after. There should also be an announcement about extraction of the $40 million plus gold from TSF#1 and refund of $32 million VAT.

Then there is Q1 results in Oct.
AGM in mid November.

At what point is the exploration in Qld acknowledged to be yet another waste of time and money? Imo this project and the rejection of the one in Cambodia were central to Boyd leaving. ie the future development of the company. For me Phillipines + Cambodia does not sit well, risk wise. But at the same time Q'ld was signing up to a dead duck.

Third ways would include an advanced JV with a gold discovery that could quickly and cheaply be brought to production. The timing of this fiasco could not be worse. Last year the gold price was in the pits so projects were cheap. Today, the cost of projects will have risen. Going far higher .... What will this BoD's have cost the company if there has to be a changing of horses this year, next year?

Mt Clarke West Cu Porphyry Project (EPM 26008) A four-hole drilling program for 1,288 metres was completed during May.
Three months later, where are the drill results? Copper project? MML has no copper expertise. It is a gold miner. Low grade copper? Bulk tonnage copper projects are expensive to develop. This is not at all suitable for Medusa.

Hill 212 Epithermal Gold (EPM 26217) Future works are planned for preparation of the initial drilling program, which is expected to commence early in the September quarter.
So now, more than a year on still no drilling here let alone results. A gold project. So why was this project not fast tracked ahead of the other one?

[deka1] 06/9/2019 08:07

Stevea171, seen your latest post on hot copper, very good cheers

[roguetreader] 03/9/2019 16:59

Yes Noirua, your double chart just about says it all