Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[galeforce1] 07/7/2019 13:23

tightfist - interesting post. Thanks for it. I clearly know less about the detail on MML than you, but to put the positive side for the current board and management:

MML has no debt and cash in the bank of over $20m
MML shareholders have seen minimal dilution over the last few years
MML has managed to build impressive mine infrastructure during a long period of low gold prices.

Operationally I'm sure the company could have done better, but hopefully we will now see regular quarterly production around 27.5k.

You criticise the BoD for having minimal personal shareholdings. But this is the case with many other similar companies.

It was a pity that the company cancelled the London listing but turnover was minimal and I'm sure they were keen to reduce costs. I can see the logic of this move. When gold prices are low conserving cash has to be the top priority.

I haven't done a lot of research into the chairman Andrew Teo, and will now do so.

What's going to be interesting over the next year or two is what MML does with the cash that should start building quite materially on the balance sheet.

[stevea171] 07/7/2019 13:15

Galeforce.
>>>>"I'd like to see a dividend or the prospect of one, but posters on HotCopper seem to think that's unlikely. They think the company will initially put money back into further exploration to increase proven mineral reserves."

Only 1 poster has expressed that opinion and he has been moving in and out of Medusa over some years. ie he is not a long term investor here so could not care less if the company pays a dividend or not. If the share price goes up tomorrow to his target price he will likely be out again!

As Tightfist says the BoD is a disaster headed by a Chairman who is an accountant who understands numbers and very little else. He is totally unqualified to preside over policy decisions for any gold mining company. On one hand he is risk averse but has presided over a catalogue of lies and failed promises since he assumed his current role. On the other hand he has initiated an exploration program in the Australian State of Q'ld that has failed every target date set and got nowhere in the year since his announcement. This is an exact repeat of the established pattern of all Medusa's other projects that drift forever with no accountability or financial disclosure for cost over runs since he became chairman.

This project is green field and is very likely to find nothing of commercial value because that is the prospectivity of the area. Even if it does come up with a discovery of gold how long is it going to take to do the drilling to prove up the resources and reserves and build a mine? 10 years is the industry average from discovery and so far not 1 meter has been drilled anywhere on the licences. Can Medusa wait 10 years for a 2nd mine to go into production before the Co-o mine is running down and commercially unviable? Certainly not!

Of course there is the Bananghilig discovery on Mindanao. What are the chances of this becoming an open pit mine given the opposition to such projects in the Philippines? Zero.

So Chairman Teo is leading Medusa down a cul-de-sac which ends in extinction. He has no vision for the company that he is prepared to promote, a token shareholding, and runs Medusa as if it were a private company with no shareholders. This BoD, if not removed this year and replaced by qualified people with proven track records are on course to lead the company to the fate of the dodo .....

[deka1] 07/7/2019 07:02

Thanks for the knowledgeable posts guys appreciated.

[tightfist] 06/7/2019 11:00

Hi galeforce,

I have seen the correspondence between yourself and RT; unfortunately I have to support everything RT has already said. In particular I can only conclude that the ultra risk-averse chairman is incapable of working alongside a free-thinking CEO.

I am hesitant (because of possible negative bias) but I see the current BoD as a fundamental problem. You can see many posts over the years increasingly questioning the composition, priorities and objectives on the current BoD. I encourage you to take a look at on Bloomberg the CV of the Chairman - he recently retired from a private construction company FD background and seems to have no public shareholder empathy or global perspective - hence the delistings in London and Toronto? and the fact that, to my knowledge, he has only visited London once in the last few years and certainly before becoming interim CEO.

Other significant aspects I would immediately draw to your attention are:

That, contrary to your perspective, the Remuneration Report was voted-down at last Autumn's AGM - this outcome required the votes of either Ruffer or Arbiter, together with other ii's.

Looking at P62 of the Annual Report, the remuneration of the chairman (after serving as interim CEO for just two weeks) increased last year by 57%. Of the overall PDMR remuneration just 3% was performance related and 10% was in share options - the remainder was risk-free.

The BoD have minimal shareholdings of 0.5% total with no trades at all for at least two years.

Peter Hebden-Brown was re-appointed as an NED after previously instantly leaving his CEO position after a period of serial underperformance and opaqueness of (missed) targets. He was, however, awarded a termination bonus of A$0.5m upon leaving.

The use of OUR cash/generation is becoming ever-more questionable regarding delivering shareholders' value. IMHO something significant has to change to realise the value and potential of our investment.

If you come across any factual errors please let me know. Thanks, tightfist

[galeforce1] 05/7/2019 16:24

roguetrader - I'm a relative newcomer to MML, but having said that I've been following for a few years now. I first bought in not long before the cancellation of the listing on AIM.
What caught my attention at the time was the big holding here by Ruffer Asset Management. They are still in here with 14% approx. Ruffer is a very conservative operation and they know a lot about goldminers.
I can see why shareholders got fed up with the company re. the cost and time overruns on the E14 shaft. But this kind of thing happens with small miners. I see the negative impact on sentiment towards the company as an opportunity, because exiting investors push down the share price But the problem is temporary. Sentiment in the end turns and takes the share price much higher.
For me the key thing is that Ruffer and Arbiter are still here and still apparently have confidence in the BoD.
I'd like to see a dividend or the prospect of one, but posters on HotCopper seem to think that's unlikely. They think the company will initially put money back into further exploration to increase proven mineral reserves.

[roguetreader] 05/7/2019 15:10

Galeforce
I like your numbers and would be happy if we get close to them this year. Re the BOD, I don't know if you've been around for the last 4-5 years on this board, but there have been many missed milestones, cost escalations / overruns under the current BOD, along with a lack of transparency (IMO and others)from the Chairman around the departure of the last two CEO's. Hence, a somewhat jaundiced view of their performance by many long-term holders.
RT

[galeforce1] 05/7/2019 12:58

Andypar - I think your assumptions are a bit conservative. Nothing wrong with that. But I reckon we can assume full year production for 2018-19 of more like 105k (we are at 76,897k at end of Q3)and AISC of more like $1050.
My 2018-19 assumptions are:
105k x $1265 (average gold price) = $132.82m turnover
105k x $1050 (av AISC) = $110.25
Profit = $22.5m approx. Current market cap = $93m = p/e of 4
My 2019-20 assumptions are:
115k x $1400 (average gold price) = $161m turnover
115k x $1000 (av AISC) = $115m
Profit = $46m (p/e of approx 2 on current market cap)

I have some sympathies with current BoD. This is a small gold miner in the Philippines and the stock is illiquid. It's never going to be easy to get new insti. investors, however many presentations you make.
Operationally they seem to be doing a good job and strong numbers will do the trick and we should see the stock at least double from here if the PoG holds.

[andypar] 04/7/2019 20:03

MML's PR is appalling.

The BOD is invisible. Other gold mining companies that I'm invested are regularly doing proactive investor videos, quarterly analyst calls etc etc. Part of the BOD's job is to promote the company.

Fundamentals will eventually out hopefully.

If POG continues higher and gold stocks become "in vogue", then my share price target will be surpassed very quickly. It is not a stretch to adjust my figures and for MML to be making a profit of $40m + a year.

A statement from the BOD that once net cash exceeds $25m they will reinstate the divi would be good. Net cash at the moment is approx $12m. So potentially a divi paid in approx 9 mths if everything proceeds smoothly.

[tightfist] 04/7/2019 11:03

Hi Andypar,

I guess we are all awaiting the Q4 results, (but this time with upbeat expectations?). I am hoping to see your target by late Autumn; it seems as though MML, it's production increases and depressed fundamentals have finally appeared on people's radar!

Whether the recent share price action is sufficient to placate shareholders is a different question. IMO a return of cash via a healthy dividend (and/or share buy-back) at the AGM may suffice, otherwise IMHO I still see a new engaged BoD taking over.


Best foot forward! tightfist

[andypar] 04/7/2019 10:30

Using some crude basic assumptions

POG 1400
Prod 100,000 oz
AISC 1150
Profit $25m

Market cap $150m on a pe of 6

Shares in issue 208m

My very conservative share price target based the above is 1.03A$.

If the POG is still over 1400 after the next set of results my price target should quickly be achieved

[chipperfrd] 25/6/2019 15:48

Hi H!

I am fine, just not spending much time on BBs lately.

Hope all is well with you. I cannot believe how long since the 'mad' times of CFD trading in 2005!! I am much more subdued these days.

All the best.

Chip

[noirua] 25/6/2019 11:58

Aussie Gold Chart:

[hector_p] 25/6/2019 11:01

Any sign of chip?

[deka1] 25/6/2019 07:30

Some are calling gold to new highs within weeks, on the gold thread, looks very ambitious to me , but we live in a virtual financial world where everything is in and out of the rabbit hole, so anything is possible lol

[noirua] 25/6/2019 01:34

With the Aussie gold price rocketing MML have suddenly gone from not much hope to a new market gold share to watch - target A$1.00.

[deka1] 20/6/2019 12:23

Yep CTR here's hoping

[crossing_the_rubicon] 20/6/2019 09:40

8 Reasons A Huge Gold-Mania Is About To Begin




Wonder if this time they're correct. Global Debt bubble must end at some point, just a question of when..

Here's hoping eh!

[deka1] 20/6/2019 07:00

Gold pushing toward 1400, end of year numbers going to look very good ,
Good luck everyone , our time has come, more than 1million trades last night , first time for a long time lol

[rhuvaal2] 13/6/2019 15:22

BOD is THE big issue, tightfist....

[tightfist] 13/6/2019 13:07

Hi Noirua,

Lovely comparisons, and in the long-term maybe - but I don't foresee us getting anywhere close with the incumbent BoD.....

[noirua] 13/6/2019 12:42

Frequent trader on ii has gone down to £9.99 from £16.00 for Aussie trades. MML will probably have a slow ride back up similar to Red5 ASX:RED, High $2.10, Low 4.5c and presently 16c. Not as quick as Ramelius ASX:RMS, High $1.65, Low 3.5c and presently 93c.
If MML do as well as RMS then $7.00 is on the cards.

FT Australia:

[tightfist] 13/6/2019 11:31

Hi HH,

I read a year-long Cup-and-Handle just complete at 44c and maybe afford us higher support; next step (hopefully in the Autumn) is completion of a larger CuH after 56c. I guess prevailing Gold sentiment is key to that move?

Cheers, tightfist

[haughtonhoney] 12/6/2019 21:22

Nice W on the 3 year chart.....if that's your thing!

[deka1] 11/6/2019 07:01

YES me too no problem with II

[stoph] 11/6/2019 04:51

Thanks to all. I have no desire to sell MML just thought that with the increase in ii charges I might try and move maybe even buy more as I think it is seriously undervalued even without BT