Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[stevea171] 05/3/2019 11:31

Chip, Tightfist, WBecki, everyone. Thanks for reading and approval.

Chip. Thanks for use of your stats I purloined from above!

Tightfist. Imo Teo is attempting to make Dave McG into a paid poodle who owes his CEO role to him and has to toe the Teo party line. If he steps out of line he will not be given a place on the Board and can be disposed of. No independent voice is to be allowed.
BT was a departure from that but he left probably because there was no Board support to take the Cambodia project seriously or to back it financially.

Re CEO presentations. When was the last time Medusa presented to the public at Proactive events in Auz? Perhaps when Geoff was CEO? I don't remember any since Teo took over. Why is that? Probably because the company is running scared of Australian shareholders and the Australian public.

For the share price to rise they have to target the Australian public and institutions because of the ASX listing. London institutional investments are historic and probably will not increase or widen. Same with UK based private investors. So London presentations are of no consequence because as you say the listing is gone and not coming back unless they need to raise capital for a project. They have no projects.

If they announced a Proactive event in Sydney or London what are they going to say? They have no credible record and no credible plans for company development. They are operating as a quasi private company, which is all Teo knows, with complete contempt for shareholders. They have reason to be afraid.

The Q'ld projects will likely come to nothing. Imo this is just papering over the bankruptcy of ideas and ambition of the company.

Imo unless the major shareholders step in at the next AGM and vote down the directors remuneration resolution (for 2nd successive year) then call an EGM to sack the directors, as they would be legally entitled to, Teo will continue like this indefinitely.

[wbecki] 05/3/2019 09:27

Superb summary, thanks for sharing from moi aussi :)

[tightfist] 05/3/2019 07:31

Thanks from me too. You have hit most of the key points for me; the only thing I would add is the shrinking global perspective, exemplified by the cancelled London listing. But the reference to secrecy/opacity as if it was a private company and retrenchment whereby Cambodia has been substituted by Queensland is maybe sufficient!

FYI, I will be writing my own letter next week. I will request DMcG to show his face at Proactive in London in September 2019 (and feel the heat/frustration of shareholders directly).

Cheers, tightfist

[chipperfrd] 04/3/2019 10:48

An excellent summary of Medusa. Well done Steve and thank you RT for posting it here.

[roguetreader] 04/3/2019 08:17

Hi All
Have copied Stevea171's post from Hotcopper below as it makes an interesting read.
RT

Open Letter to
Dave McGowan,
CEO Medusa Mining.

Dear Dave McGowan,
Congratulations on the announcement Friday of your appointment as CEO after 2 years with the company and 8 months as COO.
What is needed now is for you to make a statement with an honest assessment of where the company is now and where you want to take the company in the coming year/s. ie to go beyond your comment on appointment on 1/3/2019 below which is absent any detailed company development plans or targets, offering just more standing still and going nowhere that we have had since 2011 when production was 101k oz of gold. There is zero institutional or public interest in Medusa because it has been marking time for 7 or 8 years now and counting.

"An increased focus on planning and the recent completion of the E15 Service Shaft provides a stable operating base at our Co-O mine to build from. We will remain focused on safety, productivity and mine life extension at Co-O, while continuing exploration across our Philippines assets and assessing opportunities in the Asia Pacific region.”

Production. How has 3 months of operations of the new E15 shaft improved mine operations and production?
Is L8 shaft being used 100% for ore and waste (skip haulage) and is E15 shaft being used for ore haulage as well as men as envisaged by previous management?
Why is the guidance given of 90-100k oz no improvement on last year and less than eg the 108k oz in FY 2016 (without E15)?
What is a realistic target for FY production?
When is sub $1000 AISC ($850 by Boyd Timler) to be achieved and how? cf current high ball guidance of $1050-1150?
When can we see the benefits of 3.5 years of the building saga of E15 shaft and what improvement metrics eg FCF generation, production increase, AISC reduction etc
When will we see the ending of all FCF generated for the past 6 years ploughed into the mine and mill for nil improvement in production or profitability?
When can we expect to see increases in FCF quarter on quarter consistently?
When can shareholders expect to see a return of dividend payments?
When is the gold in the tailings dams to be recovered and put through the mill which is running just over 50% capacity?

Under the present political and social climate, is there no future in The Philippines for new open pit mines incl development of Medusa's Bhananghilig?
If so, what is the point of spending scarce resources on continuing regional exploration in The Philippines if the likelyhood is that monetization will not be allowed.
If the recent Royal Crowne Vein discovery is economic will development be allowed by the Mines Dept, DENR?
Why was the early stage gold project in Myanmar terminated a year ago?
This was replaced by the Q'ld exploration projects. How is country risk assessed? Is SE Asia now too risky given increasing nationalism?

Why does the Interim Report 2018/19 make no reference to measures being taken as a result of the Directors Remuneration Report being voted down at the last AGM.
What measures have been taken?
When will Medusa's Australian public profile be raised from zero and home based PR begin, incl presentations by MML to institutions and at public forums in Auz?
Why is there a need for these questions to be asked? Because the company is very secretive - acting as though it is a private company rather than a public company owned by its shareholders, as onerous as that may be for some directors, and does not communicate with its shareholders on an adequate or timely basis.

Averages for 67 producing PM miners based on latest results.
All statistics compiled by Chipperfrd:
PER ~ 27.8
PBV ~ 1.9
PSR ~ 3.0
PCF ~ 10.4
Ev/EBITDA ~ 8.9

Medusa:
PER ~ 2.1
PBV ~ 0.65
PSR ~ 0.44
PCF ~ 1.21
Ev/EBITDA ~ 0.93

PER (Price/Earnings Ratio), PBV (Price/Book Value), PSR (Price/Sales Ratio), PCF (Price/Cashflow),
Ev/EBITDA (Enterprise Value/Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation)

Why is Medusa the consistent most under-valued of all the producers across 67 producing PM miners?
How is Medusa addressing this and creating shareholder value?
Director shareholdings are negligible. Director emoluments have consistently been rewards for poor performance.
Are Director interests aligned with shareholders? No, not at all.

For the past many years Medusa has been benefiting directors, managers, staff and contractors through wages and payments but not share holders.
The Medusa share price has fallen 95% so most share.holders are sitting on large losses.
Why are failed Board members still in place after many years of failure?
There is zero institutional or public interest in Medusa because the company acts entirely in its own interests and has made no material progress for 7 or 8 years
It is unlikely that the next AGM will look kindly on more of the same we have been treated to..
Fundamental changes are overdue.
When and how will this be addressed?

best wishes,
MML Price at posting: 37.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

[tightfist] 01/3/2019 19:52

Thanks from me too. I particularly agree with speedsgh’s take on things.
Let’s see DMcG buying in the market, AT replaced by a seasoned mining player with global perspective and a return to the dividend list. Am I dreaming again?

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 01/3/2019 16:21

Thanks guys,your opinions very welcome

[speedsgh] 01/3/2019 09:47

DMcG seems like a very safe appointment from AT's perspective. A known quantity who is already on a leash. Forgive the cynicism. I am firmly of the opinion that, barring an explosion in the price of gold, shareholders will fail to feel the benefits of their holding in the company until AT is shown the exit door. AFAICS AT has done nothing during his tenure at MML to suggest that he is capable of leading the company & its share price to higher ground.

[roguetreader] 01/3/2019 09:44

Hi TF / Deka
Hopefully McGowan will be a successful and long-term appointment compared to the Gregory and BT reigns. To date I see it as a positive appointment, where hopefully Teo takes a back seat or retires at some point. MML results do appear to be improving slowly. share price looks to be way under valued, but confidence will take some time to build IMO, which means it could languish for some time yet. I'm still holding and believe the share price will eventually come back, but not holding my breath as to timeline.
RT

[tightfist] 01/3/2019 09:12

Hi deka,

Reading between the lines in a conversation with a BoD member a while back, Rob Gregory did not get on well with the Fillipinos - the inference was that this was a substantive part of why he did not get the CEO job. It is a fact that RG and AT did not enjoy mutual respect.

IIRC Rob Gregory instigated the reduction of the workforce and the change in the mining contract payment methodology..... so I thought he was never going to be popular!

My very brief experience 40 years ago was that Filipinos needed a lot of pretty direct leadership - IIRC there was a lurker on this thread that lives in the Phillipines who broadly held the same opinion.

Other perspectives out there? tightfist

[deka1] 01/3/2019 06:45

Hi TF, good news ,the new CEO app, I wish I knew what this actually meant lol

"most importantly, his demonstrated ability to work with our team in the Philippines. We are confident that Dave has all the key attributes required to lead Medusa and create value for our shareholders.”

Does this mean that the past CEOs didn't make the cut with the locals

does it take something Special to work with the flips ?

[tightfist] 01/3/2019 04:08

(Repeat post)

[tightfist] 01/3/2019 04:08

Hi Glavey,

Thanks for the CEO appointment link. Good to see AR’s emphasis on creating shareholder value and, most importantly, DMcG’s ability to work with the Philippines team (where it is rumoured that RG fell short in his failed journey to becoming CEO).

Hopefully we can now lobby DMcG to visit London and hear his pitch first-hand around September this year.

Cheers, tightfist

[glavey] 01/3/2019 03:26

Appointment of David McGowan as CEO

[wbecki] 28/2/2019 09:29

Barrick-Newmont merger would leave up to $7B of assets up for grabs
This article by Cecilia Jamasmie for Mining.com may be of interest to subscribers.



Canada’s Barrick Gold's (TSX:ABX)(NYSE:GOLD) hostile $17.8 billion bid for rival Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) could free up a group of assets the combined company would no longer consider key, such as their Kalgoorlie super pit 50/50 joint-venture in Western Australia.

After launching the offer on Monday, Barrick chief executive officer Mark Bristow said he had already been contacted by parties that have expressed interest in the company’s Australian assets.

The divestment goals announced by the Newmont-Goldcorp tie-up and the recent Barrick-Randgold merger provide “a significant opportunity” for ASX-listed names to acquire assets, according to UBS analysts.

“Australian gold producers have stronger balance sheets than their North American peers. We think Evolution and Northern Star are best placed to make accretive acquisitions given their strong track records in this area,” said UBS in a note last month.

Market rumours indicate that one of the potential buyers could be Melbourne-based Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM), especially after Bristow said there was “a very good chance” of some Australian operators becoming involved.



"Holy moley - M&A in gold sector is good great guns....

When they going to buy

CEY. HGM, Poly, and MML....???"

[roguetreader] 28/2/2019 08:56

Half Year report:



RT

[atlantic57] 24/2/2019 10:30

Hi Chip
Thank you for taking the time to post
I really appreciate it.
It is interesting how some of the major
Producers have reacted to gold price rally.

[chipperfrd] 24/2/2019 10:24

To follow-up on above for MML, I get:

PER ~ 2.1
PBV ~ 0.65
PSR ~ 0.44
PCF ~ 1.21
Ev/EBITDA ~ 0.93

which make it the consistent most under-valued of all the producers in my table. Which is why I still hold my shares!!
Chip

[chipperfrd] 24/2/2019 09:29

I have been using the following for a while now, based on the investment strategy of James P. O'Shaughnessey:-

PER (Price/Earnings Ratio)
PBV (Price/Book Value)
PSR (Price/Sales Ratio)
PCF (Price/Cashflow)
Ev/EBITDA) (Enterprise Value/Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation))

Lowest figures indicate under-valuation. Should work in general across all equities - not just producing miners - although best to compare amongst peers in sectors.

Across 67 producing PM miners I get the following average figures per ratio:-

PER ~ 27.8
PBV ~ 1.9
PSR ~ 3.0
PCF ~ 10.4
Ev/EBITDA ~ 8.9

Price is latest closing price. Metrics (earnings, sales, cashflow, book value, EBITDA) are all calculated from the most recent financial reports. So these are 'actuals' rather than targets, broker estimates, et al.
Chip

[atlantic57] 24/2/2019 08:05

Hi there .
Has anyone any guidance on how you value a Gold miner.

Some suggest :

Price to book
Future cash flow
5 times gross margin

Any tips thanks

[tightfist] 24/2/2019 06:29

Hi rhuvaal, stevea;

I totally agree with you - but I think you are being very kind to Mr Teo. There are far too many discontinuities within the history of MML since he became Chairman, not confined to communication but his inability to work sustainably with anyone except his small Perth-based inner sanctum, which has become a recurring theme.

Hopefully the Remuneration Report rejection at the last AGM signals a change-point whereby the Chairman and BoD are totally overhauled and become shareholder-centric - or at least with a common purpose. People who can work with a progressive CEO to finally deliver results.

Arbiter and Ruffer hold the keys to the door, and are hopefully flexing their muscles behind closed doors.....

Here’s hoping, tightfist

[rhuvaal2] 19/2/2019 10:58

I trust that stevea on HOC won't mind this being posted here: in response to my query =

MML is lagging at the moment because the acting CEO, Teo, is standing in the way of proper communication with shareholders. He is an accountant with a private company background. He is ultra conservative and mindful of the events of the past 5 years.

If things continue this way I would expect him and the other Board members to be voted down for a second year running (director remuneration resolution) at the next AGM in November and out at an EGM called by the major shareholders soon after.

The last quarterly mentioned that there would be some announcement on filling the CEO position this quarter. Imo this is likely to be either a well experienced mining professional that is recruited from outside or the present COO who they had in mind all along but they wanted to give him reasonable time in the COO role before making him up to CEO.

Teo is on borrowed time and imo will not be allowed to continue the way he is, holding shareholders and the company to ransom.

[galeforce1] 28/1/2019 12:51

A disappointing quarterly update, I agree.
MML have to raise quarterly production to 25k and above, and they have to get the AISC down to $1,000 or below. That ought to be possible.
But Q2's 23,120oz at AISC of $1,156 is still quite a long way off target.
The gold price is rising and the E15 shaft is finally completed, so this should come right. But if they haven't got their act together by the financial year-end then I'm moving on.

[galeforce1] 28/1/2019 12:49

A disappointing quarterly update, I agree.
MML have to raise quarterly production to 25k and above, and they have to get the AISC down to $1,000 or below. That ought to be possible.
But Q2's 23,120oz at AISC of $1,156 is still quite a long way off target.
The gold price is rising and the E15 shaft is finally completed, so this should come right. But if they haven't got their act together by the financial year-end then I'm moving on.

[c9ajl] 25/1/2019 17:34

https://www.miningnews.net/gold-and-silver-news/news/1355032/medusa-snakes-towards-target