Mcbride Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 27/8/2024 15:44

Sell orders were stacking up on L2 near the close today @ 132p totaling 55k, then a 19117 sell order at 16:35:18 @ 131 at the very end of the auction.
Also, 48,067 @ 132 on BATS appeared on L2 at 16:40:00
Not normal for MCB.

Pure speculation, but it appears the price was being capped at the close for some reason. Perhaps a large trade at an agreed price coming through?

[blusteradjuster] 05/8/2024 11:42

Yep, the Yen and Nvidia's stock price will do what they do.


In other news, UK Services PMI numbers:



Demand for UK services rises at fastest pace since May 2023

Business confidence rebounds to five-month high


and GSCI commodity index:

[darrin1471] 05/8/2024 08:28

Just a thought which I have not backed up by research.
If there is a general slowdown, then commodities used by MCB may fall in cost, boosting profits.
Any consumer slowdown will encourage more consumers to buy own brand products made by MCB.

[aishah] 05/8/2024 07:36

SP below 50d SMA

[darrin1471] 05/8/2024 07:22

MCB down 7% this morning on the back of Asia's overnight rout.
Two FTSE100 shares that opened in the positive, Unilever and Reckitt Benckiser.
MCB has a low valuation and is defensive.

[darrin1471] 29/7/2024 07:43

An unusual and large uncompetitive buy order of 128,973 @ 128.50 this morning on L2

[nobull] 25/7/2024 19:40

Thanks Blusteradjuster. Yes, Darrin, the price target upgrade, which I was not aware of, makes sense when the BofE starts cutting interest rates, and hopefully the 5-year or 10-year gilt yield drops a bit.

[darrin1471] 24/7/2024 21:07

Recent FY TU did not result in any analyst profit upgrades but analysts did upgrade their price targets from 127 & 130 to 159 & 175 according to Marketscreener

[blusteradjuster] 24/7/2024 16:15

What I was suggesting (and presumably Darrin was echoing) is that Q4 2023 was +12.7% and such a spike might be seen as an outlier, a bullish fluke.

So Q4 2024 not comparing so well vs a fluke (if that's what Q4 2023 was) is statistically plausible (Occam's Razor..) within the ongoing improving operational trend.

I'd reiterate the numbers below which are undemanding and, while MCB are cashflow positive and therefore paying down the debt component of the mentioned enterprise value, getting less demanding by the day (cashflows & share price being equal..).


Enterprise value:Adjusted EBIDTA ~ 4.5
EV:Adjusted operating profit ~ 5.4

[nobull] 24/7/2024 15:56

Darrin, re 1428, with the sort of investments I have, I do not sleep well - most are speculative.

I thought the TU was okay, but now having read Blusteradjuster's and your comments on Q4 revenue, I see that it maybe was not. I am not selling unless I can be confident of remaining outside the UK for 5 years, or dying, having first gone to great lengths to become a non-dom. I do not expect any divs from this until 2026 - they are not allowed to pay any, unless they are able to exit that financing agreement early, I wonder?

[darrin1471] 16/7/2024 15:53

Q4 2024 revenue looks flat and FY revenue looks a miss by about £25m-£30m compared to consensus. Q4 in 2023 was +12.7%
We have come to expect upgrades in every trading update.
FY will be record revenue and operating margin. 75% above best ever EBITDA and 65% above best ever eps. Plus the return of the dividend?

I bought back into my MCB trade today at an average of 125.5p and MCB is still my largest core holding by a long way.

[ladywormer] 16/7/2024 15:36

tree shake or sell on the news?

[blusteradjuster] 16/7/2024 07:27

Q4 2023 was a strong comparator - FY24 y-o-y compares less favourably with 9m y-o-y comparator.

Enterprise value:Adjusted EBIDTA ~ 4.5
EV:Adjusted operating profit ~ 5.4

[quant_investor] 16/7/2024 07:12

Report in-line on the back of a sharp rise, then the share price action is fairly predictable

[darrin1471] 16/7/2024 06:13

The Group therefore anticipates that adjusted operating profit will be in line with the recently upgraded current market expectations

net debt closing at £131.5m

* Current market expectations refer to a Group compiled consensus of broker forecasts for FY24 of:
· Adjusted operating profit £66.4m
· Net debt £129.0m

[darrin1471] 12/7/2024 13:00

Unusually large (95k) sell order at 139 on L2 appeared @ 12:27

Full year trading update on Tuesday 16 July 2024.

edit. another 70k sell at 140 appeared in auction

[blackhorse23] 28/6/2024 10:58

Switched to RNK [better change to capital gains] 4 brokers issued strong BUY

[darrin1471] 26/6/2024 08:50

Sold my trade from 10/06 for a gain of just under 20%
My core holding in MCB is still my largest holding by a significant margin.
Marketscreener have MCB chart resistance at 135 and then 161

Full year trading update on 16 July 2024.

[darrin1471] 21/6/2024 15:57

Unusually large closing auction today. 373,547 @ 132.5.

[darrin1471] 10/6/2024 12:44

Added a few MCB to my holding today as a trade hoping MCB will bounce off 50ma. My purchase has not shown up yet.

[darrin1471] 24/5/2024 12:56

bluster, that is a real turnaround from where MCB were in mid 2022, I had not really thought beyond paying down the debt .
CEO Chris Smith instigated a MCB share buyback programme starting in 02/11/2020 when MCB share price was 63p. MCB bought 8.6 million shares in 10 months at a total cost of GBP6.8m with an average price of 79.3p.
Recent capital market day said:
1.5x to 2x Base dividend Cash
1.0x to 1.49x Additional distribution considered Cash / share buy-back / retain at Board’s discretion
Below 1.0x Special distribution considered At Board’s discretion

In the 07/09/2021 final results "Base Dividend" was one sixth of EPS and "additional distribution" was an additional one sixth of EPS.
So should we expect a dividend of 3p rising to 6.5p next year? Board may be a little more cautious after the inflation shock.
Chairman is 79, CEO 60 and CFO 62 so MCB is likely to be their last payday. CEO to move to Chairman?

[blusteradjuster] 24/5/2024 09:43

Thanks Darrin.

That was my line-of-thought wrt share buybacks.

If the P/E didn't rise to, say, 12-15, and the BoD thought:

- Revenue growth 2% pa*
- EBITDA margins > 10%*

were achievable / sustainable, then what better signal to send to the market than buying back shares while the trailing P/E is below, say, 12.


*(as per capital markets day RNS)


"Profit growth forecasts of 10, 15 or 20% in coming years should justify a higher p/e and give a final boost to the share price."

[darrin1471] 24/5/2024 08:50

So my investment in MCB theory is that MCB will make exceptional profits as input prices fall. Competitors have all gone through a few tough years and will be looking to rebuild balance sheets before going after market share.
In time customers will force competition and margins will fall again.
IMO MCB will try and hide profits from customers as long as they can using explanations of current and future inflationary pressures. This is why we have seen repeated upgrades every couple of months. MCB may be able to move some of this years exceptional profits into next years figures.
Beyond the upgrades there are two significant events that should boost the share price. The full year results when eps will be set in stone for the past year and secondly with MCB guidance that profits are sustainable or growing in the coming years due to private label growth, action on costs and efficiencies. Profit growth forecasts of 10, 15 or 20% in coming years should justify a higher p/e and give a final boost to the share price.

[darrin1471] 24/5/2024 08:11

nobull. What are you doing up at 4am?

As we discovered on 04/04/24 the factsheet research and marketscreener figures match but also differ.
Revenue exactly the same.
Pre tax on factsheet research exactly match EBIT on marketscreener
EPS and subsequently p/e differ