Mcbride Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 18/12/2023 15:13

SCSW spoke to MCB CEO Chris Smith in November and put the following quote up on "X":
"I've just never seen anything like it. Can't keep up, selling all we produce and we've have paid £24m+ off the debt since June, not factored into forecasts"

Curiosity got the better of me and as I have such a high percentage of my portfolio here, I paid for the subscription for a year.

The above quotes do not appear in SCSW but MCB were the main write up.
Chris Smith did say "market conditions are the best I have ever encountered,” and talked about "looking to lift the margin by 1-3ppts vs the 4% baseline margin delivered in FY20. It will be close to 5% this year".

[volsung] 18/12/2023 15:07

90 New Pence
Formidable

[hpcg] 18/12/2023 14:46

No I don't. You know much more about this than I do :)

[darrin1471] 18/12/2023 14:40

hpcg. MarketScreener have FY24 (30/06/2024) EBITDA at £73m vs a previous best of £51m.
Do you have any different numbers?
H1 ends 31st December. H1 trading update mid January

[hpcg] 18/12/2023 14:28

Still doesn't want to consolidate.

[darrin1471] 18/12/2023 13:15

The move up to 90p today attracted a seller.

[john09] 13/12/2023 14:42

Huge volume mon and tues

[darrin1471] 13/12/2023 14:33

John. MCB's share price is well "managed". Historically the volume needs to drop for a few days before the next step up. The size of Monday's rise normally takes place over 2 or 3 days.

[john09] 13/12/2023 14:21

Im not suprised . Only suprise to me is the price has paused i think maybe it’ll carry on up now

[oldtimer169] 13/12/2023 14:17

Well it seems a NED sees value at the current share price

[darrin1471] 13/12/2023 14:16

12 December 2023 Alastair Murray Non-Executive Director purchased 37,500 @ 85p
Appointed in August 2021

[pshevlin] 12/12/2023 14:25

I am totally aware of that Darrin but thanks anyway. Hopefully the pattern will become a little clearer.

[oldtimer169] 12/12/2023 13:47

then there are the delayed reported trades which can cloud the picture further.

[darrin1471] 12/12/2023 13:32

pshevlin, buys vs sells on any share are not what they first appear. Check when you make a buy/sale and often your sale will appear as a buy and visa versa.

A big buyer may want to add stock. If they go into the market and buy they will push the price up. So instead they put in the best buy order and wait for a seller to be matched. A seller asks for price when selling online and is matched with the buyer. The seller agrees to the price and sells. It will probably appear as a sell but there has been a buyer and a seller.

I have just tried a test sale of 3000 shares. The spread is 80.20 vs 84. I was quoted a sale price of 82.284. If I had agreed that price it would have appeared on the trades as a buy because 82.284 is closer to 84 than 80.20. I would be selling and somebody else would be buying.

[oldtimer169] 12/12/2023 13:02

LOL- the 1 trades may have something to do with it...

[pshevlin] 12/12/2023 12:56

I don't quite get why this is not rising give the proportion of buys to sells.

[someuwin] 11/12/2023 21:28

Long term chart shows the significant upside here...


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[darrin1471] 11/12/2023 17:55

Recent spikes have previously lasted 2-3 days.
There have been no pullbacks on recent spikes.
The tip in SCSW may result in a pullback. Risk is you miss the next leg up. I would not be confident of seeing the next leg up unless I sat watching the screen all day.

[paraguay] 11/12/2023 17:12

Stonking day. Over strecthed itself?

[darrin1471] 11/12/2023 14:25

No dotcom bubbles here. Just soap bubbles :-)

she-ra. Have you been holding MCB since before covid? Do you have a SCSW subscription?

[she-ra] 11/12/2023 14:13

Well I think they're wrong. The dotcom boom saw bigger premiums for takeovers. I suspect that is lazy journalism.

[darrin1471] 11/12/2023 14:07

"The offer was 170 per cent higher than Hotel Chocolat’s closing price on Wednesday – making it the largest takeover premium paid on the London stock market in 25 years. Shares soared 161.15 per cent or 224p to 364p."


I believe the original quote of "25 years" came from Bloomberg but the link I have is behind a paywall.


Either way, it was an unusually high premium.

[she-ra] 11/12/2023 13:52

25 years. I think you're wrong. I vaguely recollect companies accepting takeover over offers with bigger premiums on the day.

And I doubt Teleios would accept 50% premium on top of todays price.

[darrin1471] 11/12/2023 13:38

I would accept a takeover premium similar to that Mars paid for Hotel Chocolat, even though that would leave some upside for the buyer.
But the Hotel Chocolat offer was exceptional. I believe the highest on the London Stock Market in 25 years.
A 50% premium tomorrow would be very disappointing.
There is no reason to talk about takeovers. MCB appears to be making record profits currently and the share price still has a long way to go IMO.

[she-ra] 11/12/2023 10:42

darrin did you see the rise investors in Hotel Chocolat woke up to find one morning when the takeover was announced?