Mcbride Share Discussion Threads

[oldtimer169] 13/3/2024 14:08

The presentation could have started with 'what a difference a year makes'!Hopefully the message gets home...the company is fundamentally undervalued.Well,that's my take and hopefully it will be endorsed by a wider audience and we get a re-rating.As always DYOR.

[darrin1471] 13/3/2024 10:32

Better late than never

[darrin1471] 13/3/2024 10:24

I also tried calling the MCB phone number on the RNS and it just says the answerphone is full

[darrin1471] 13/3/2024 10:00

"The presentation materials will be available on McBride's corporate website before the event"

I can't find them.

[nobull] 13/3/2024 09:47

I would go, if only to ask, whether there are any opportunities for non-risk-profile-raising, bolt-on acquisitions, to grow sales volumes profitably, but I cannot because of the time the presentation is at this morning. A pity, and in any case they might not let me in what with being a private shareholder.

Also it would be interesting to know if there is any likelihood of concentration within the own-label industry, but that is too basic a question to ask at these type of events.

[darrin1471] 13/3/2024 07:47

Capital markets day:

key objectives for the next five years which include:

· Revenue growth of 2% per annum

· EBITDA of >10% of sales

· Net debt below 1.5x EBITDA

· >25% ROCE

[mirabeau] 10/3/2024 08:09

Holding #MCB covered in The Times today:

Share Tip: "Invest in McBride, you could clean up"

Their references to Peel Hunts 108p price target, anticipated profit and price-to-earnings are off though as they have used forecasts pre the 27th update. Peel Hunt upgraded PBT to £46m from £40m, EPS to 19p from 16.5p, PT to 120p from 108p. This was their last comments on value:

"Recommendation. McBride has an improving operational performance, which is translating into strong FCF. We upgrade our target price from 108p to 120p to reflect the higher profit outlook. This is based on 6x FY25E PE and 5x EV/EBITDA. The current rating of c.4x PE and 3x EV/EBITDA is still ridiculously low in our view"

[darrin1471] 08/3/2024 10:30

L2 Buy orders at 90p and above 27k. Sell orders below 96p 26K

[gymratt] 08/3/2024 09:24

..and a possible break out(?). ;@)

[darrin1471] 08/3/2024 08:45

93p a 12 month high

[darrin1471] 07/3/2024 19:24

edit: 3rd highest trading volume in 12 months.

Two late trades
250,000 & 254,661 @ 90.6p

[darrin1471] 07/3/2024 17:04

5th highest trading volume in 12 months.
Seller came in with 50k @ 90.6p in the closing auction.
Let the battle recommence tomorrow.

[darrin1471] 07/3/2024 15:53

Buyer breaks 90p
First trades gone through above 90p since January 8th

[darrin1471] 07/3/2024 14:26

I was away from my pc but from the trades it appears the buyer tried to break 90p after 12:34 buying around 250k @ 90p but the seller came straight back in at 90p.

The market makers appear well out of this action. The single trades were happening on LSE and BATS exchanges at the same time.

I don't know what is happening and can only speculate.
IMO it looks like somebody trying to short vs a long trying to push the price up. Whoever has the deeper pockets will be the winner but I think the MCB numbers are on the side of pushing the price higher.

[oldtimer169] 07/3/2024 13:43

darrin,MM's having fun with the odd trade or 5!

[darrin1471] 07/3/2024 11:49

Seller put exactly 50k @ 90p split across LSE, AQX and CHIX exchanges at 8am. Same as yesterday.
Total sell orders at 90p now 122,544
Yesterday and today the buyer nibbled away at the 90p
A bit of a stand-off.

[darrin1471] 05/3/2024 08:19

Total sell orders of 189,379 @ 90p this morning with the seller adding sell orders below 90p.
Buyer put a block in of 100k at 87.4p in the auction last night. A small block at 87.4 added this morning. The buyer hides off L2 until the seller tries to move the price down, then comes back moving the AT back to 90p.

[nobull] 05/3/2024 00:20

Off topic.

Darrin, no, I don't hold that stock, but the disconnect is, let's say, interesting! The snowflake diagram on MarketScreener seems to be a bit short of data, which made me laugh. I'll say no more. ATB. (I bought MPE on a forward PE of about 80 once and it turned out very well, so 69 should not be a problem for JC, and the debt should start to fall in due course).

P.S. I do get it that it doesn't make sense other than to try to forecast normalised earnings, which may explain why a dog like the oil company I mentioned, which I do hold, has attractive eps forecasts, looks cheap, but maybe isn't, because the reported earnings (the ones including exceptionals and probably not forecast) never add anything to retained earnings because the unadjusted eps are so much worse than the normalised ones. Full year results on that company will be out soon, so I'll be looking out for those dastardly exceptionals, all a learning experience for me! Of course the utterances of Rachel Reeves and Ed Miliband may have a lot to do with the share price non-performance, to say nothing of other factors.

[darrin1471] 04/3/2024 18:34

nobull. Are you holding or looking at CRPR? I have been watching for nearly a year and started buying last week.

[nobull] 04/3/2024 15:58

"Pre-tax on your Factset Research numbers match exactly the EBIT numbers on MarketScreener."


Very interesting, that. Makes sense now. Thanks.

Some of the Factset consensus analysts' eps forecast figures for other companies seem too high sometimes - I can't tell whether their eps figures are fully diluted, are normalised or are what they expect the company to actually report after taking into account exceptionals and whether the eps are attributable to the ords when the company also has prefs (I have to wonder if they have remembered to deduct the pref div before coming up with their forecast eps figure).

The REA and ENQ eps forecasts seem too high, and there is a total disconnect between CRPR's cliff-drop share price graph and the forecasts for the next accounting period, not the one soon to be reported on, which maybe does justify the share price graph. All very interesting. Thanks.

[darrin1471] 04/3/2024 13:50

nobull Those are similar numbers to MarketScreener
Revenue exactly the same.
Pre-tax on your Factset Research numbers match exactly the EBIT numbers on MarketScreener.

MarketScreener have:
EBT numbers of 42.5, 40.3 & 42.8
making eps 16.5, 16.2 & 17.2.
p/e of 5.4x, 5.5x & 5.2

[darrin1471] 04/3/2024 13:25

We may be heading for a showdown between the "managed" buyer and the "short" seller.

On Friday afternoon multiple sell orders appeared at 90p totaling around 120k.
On L2 today at 11:35 110,684 @ 90p and another 100k @ 90p was added at 12:48
The short seller may feel today is their best opportunity to push the price down with the wider markets falling.
Currently a total of 268k sell orders at 90p.

[nobull] 04/3/2024 13:17

New consensus analysts' forecasts from Factset Research

[darrin1471] 27/2/2024 20:21

One of 2023’s best share price performers, private-label cleaning products maker McBride (MCB), has upgraded earnings guidance again as the cost-of-living squeeze continues to stoke demand for its affordable products, news that sent the stock up 16% to 85.2p in early dealings on Tuesday.

Having reported a much-improved first-half performance with all divisions profitable, the budget laundry-detergent-to-surface-cleaner maker now expects full year operating profit to be 10% to 15% ahead of internal expectations.

PRIVATE LABEL SHIFT PERSISTS
A trusted supplier to Europe’s leading grocery retailers, McBride’s strong showing in the half to 31 December 2023 was underpinned by the ongoing shift away from expensive brands and towards cheaper private-label alternatives as consumers seek to save money and retailers look to reinforce their value propositions.

McBride’s constant currency revenue rose 9.9% to £468 million in the half, reflecting price increases as well as healthy 10.1% private label volume growth, with the Manchester-headquartered dishwasher-liquid-to-aerosol supplier ‘taking further market share in a rising private-label market’.

In its core strategic focus areas of Germany and laundry, McBride achieved pleasing volume growth of 10.5% and 9.8% respectively.

FIRMLY BACK IN THE BLACK

McBride also pleased investors with a swing from losses of £7.9 million to adjusted pre-tax profits of £22.4 million thanks to positive margin progress, as well as a £20.8 million decrease in net debt from £166.5 million at the prior year end to £145.7 million.

While sales growth slowed in the final two months of the half, the outlook for the rest of the second half and the balance of the calendar year is positive and contract wins will begin to boost revenues from the first half of full year 2025.

WHAT DID THE COMPANY SAY?
Chief executive Chris Smith commented: ‘McBride has continued with its positive momentum in the first half of this financial year. It is pleasing to see all five divisions continuing to grow on a constant currency basis, supporting our customers with high-quality products to meet the consumer shift to private label.’

Smith added: ‘As we progress our transformation programme, with specific initiatives to enhance McBride’s capabilities and tools for the future, we remain focused on performance delivery today. This focus, together with our continued drive to reduce debt levels, will ensure McBride is well positioned to achieve further progress in the near and medium term and we look to the future with confidence.’

WHY BROKERS ARE BULLISH

Investec, which has a ‘buy’ rating and a 112p price target for the stock, said the company ‘continues to make reassuring progress and expects the favourable trends for private label products in its categories to continue throughout calendar 2024. It now expects full year 2024 operating profit to be 10% to 15% above its previous expectations. We upgrade by 17% for full year 2024 and by 8% for subsequent years.’

Peel Hunt (PEEL:AIM) upgraded its full year 2024 pre-tax profit forecast from £40 million to £46 million and highlighted McBride’s ‘improving operational performance, which is translating into strong free cash flow. We upgrade our target price from 108p to 120p to reflect the higher profit outlook.’

[darrin1471] 27/2/2024 16:43

Even a PE of 8 on 16.4p gives 131p which is a 50% upside.

I'm very happy with +20% today