Mcbride Share Discussion Threads

[nick rubens] 07/9/2021 11:54

Figures out today, sounds like the expected production cost savings will be a buffer for the inflationary input costs. No dividend. Not sure I agree with the share buy backs as eventually the market will price the company according to earnings or expected earnings. Perhaps it's a target for a takeover but who would it be suitable for?

[sphere25] 20/8/2021 09:53

They're not falling over themselves to sell here are they as per a normal warning. A lesser profit warning pre-Covid and MCB gets absolutely creamed, but the market might be giving abit of pass here on these well known issues. The market has concentrated on the good in the VTU statement today too, despite marked caution on forecasts being hit. Possibly first signs that the market is seeing them as short term. Not interested in MCB, just how the market is reacting and maneuvering around these threats. Onwards! All imo DYOR

[creditcrunchies] 19/8/2021 16:54

Their margins are so thin on the products they supply any negatives tend to get amplified is something you notice with this stock, I've always ended up taking profits after buying low several times now. If they hit 50p again they're worth a punt to hold and forget for a while

[sphere25] 19/8/2021 09:42

Interested to see how this one moves on the back of that ugly statement. There are a fair few companies warning on similar supply chain issues of late (ULVR, RKT, CTEC to name a few) and today we have: MCB CGS RBN ENET The small move down of only 8.5% at the moment looks generous, particularly considering the sequence of cautious statements at MCB of late and will more follow? The last one in May set this statement up so it will be interesting to see if other companies cautioning on these issues do now start to come out with clear profit warnings. Currently we are seeing cautious statements, veiled warnings or something along the lines of "We will hit forecasts IF supply chains and costs do not deteriorate". If these moves down are only small or eventually get bought up (i.e. market genuinely believes them to be very short term in nature), it will provide more assurance, but it is very difficult to say at the moment how long they might last and the nature of the moves. Furthermore, the US is wobbling on the back of the FED minutes, and with the IWM showing more weakness of late and testing very critical support levels, there are a multitude of factors to consider out there for market participants. Happy to nip in and out of things and let any quick ones go through a stop at the moment. I can see more selling out there this morning, but still nothing substantial. Sometimes the US headlines from business channels are alot worse than they appear. I saw "US markets plunge yesterday" and checked and the market was off about 1%...hang on..what? However, if key support levels do get taken out and that usual wave of buying on the 3-5% dip doesn't come in, then expect some significant selling pressure here and some larger moves down. A proper correction has been due for a while, but the market continues to gobble up any patches of weakness. The FED is the key factor so how will the market follow through on the release yesterday? Historically volatile months of September and October to follow. Possibly a pivotal moment to come? Let's see how it goes. All imo DYOR

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/8/2021 07:49

Wow. Glad to have left this behind - said at the time it was potentially unreliable and stuck between supplier inflation and without pricing power themselves as their supermarket customer bases would be declining to take the increased costs. At best, they are saying they will lose half a year's cashflow and profit, with no long term impact. I'm really not sure how much I believe that. Debt will be higher (it was already quite stretched), interest costs higher... It's a tough world being in the middle - it's not fair, but it is what it is.

[bookbroker] 19/8/2021 07:38

Shocking statement, 50p today on the cards!

[nick rubens] 27/7/2021 10:03

Cheers apollocred1. Results are due 7th September. Will be interesting to hear of any forward looking statement and potential margin issues with them.

[apollocreed1] 26/7/2021 23:52

I sold PZ Cussons when I saw how Unilever was struggling with rising input costs. I think the same problem will hit McBride and possible to a worse extent due to their thin profit margins. I sold MCB a few months ago when I thought Covid was behind us.

[nick rubens] 26/7/2021 14:26

Will be interesting to see if rising input raw material prices can be passed on to maintain margins. Current year will be inline but the following year we'll have to see what they say. Not sure if share buy back was a good idea, but I did offload some afterwards and not sure what to think at the moment or how the market will react to any margin issues, if they persist, which with all the QE money print, I'm sure inflationary issues are here to stay for good.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/5/2021 16:18

To be fair they started the buybacks in the low 60s, after months of rigor mortis in the share price. And it worked. Until now...

[essentialinvestor] 05/5/2021 16:14

I've made the same point on many occasions.

[bozzy_s] 05/5/2021 16:13

Noticed this on top of losers list. What on earth have they been doing? Tons and tons of buybacks, despite being in a net debt position (cash £21m / debt £127m). And now the shares are cheaper than the buybacks. Terrible first impression of a company. That's not taking into account the trading update, which might be beyond their control.

[apollocreed1] 05/5/2021 11:30

The lesson here is to avoid stocks without pricing power. The Stock must have operating margins and a Return on Capital Employed or Return on Assets of above 15%.

[fez77] 05/5/2021 10:15

And Renewi (RWI).

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/5/2021 09:22

Very true - so gold and precious metals... POLY and FRES (imho) :-)

[creditcrunchies] 05/5/2021 09:09

the problem you got now are raw materials costs are rising fast which will trigger rates to rise at some point, I think we'll see a decent sell off so I'm not hanging around to squeeze that extra profit so sold pretty much everything apart from a couple of divi stocks. This is a good market to offload right now because it's in the mania stage and peeps are willing to buy at full price.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/5/2021 08:59

It's a difficult one - to exit a stock that you think will go up further, in favour of one (you think) which will go up faster. But SAGA and TW. did just that and it worked out well. As did holding on for 90+. Not a bad problem to have...

[creditcrunchies] 05/5/2021 08:54

I did the same once it hit the 90s it was a good profit from 60p. Not just these I took profits from all of the others that I bought when the FTSE was at the 2020 lows it's never a profit until it's banked

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/5/2021 08:38

For the period last year in the 60s, and not a lot - flat as a pancake. Thought it was good for 90 or so (and it was) but decided to get out when they started the buybacks and it moved up into the 70s - it was tying up funds for too long when all manner of everything else was going up. All further back on the thread.

[scepticalinvestor] 05/5/2021 08:23

Don't tell me you were in this dog?Ouch

[imastu pidgitaswell] 05/5/2021 07:37

Yes glad to be out - it’s just too unreliable.

[bookbroker] 05/5/2021 07:11

Back to 80p, with price pressures evident at the core level of materials production hardly surprising it is being reflected in the manufacturing process.

[trickyricky] 05/5/2021 07:03

Not a great update this morning