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Mcbride Plc

-1.30 (-4.29%)
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Mcbride Plc LSE:MCB London Ordinary Share GB0005746358 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.30 -4.29% 29.00 25,113 16:35:21
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
29.00 31.10 29.00 29.00 29.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Soap,detergent,toilet Preps 678.30 -24.00 -13.80 - 50.48
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:21 UT 5 29.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
02/6/202315:32McBride Broker targets>Ј31,074
07/9/201016:24*** McBride ***28
18/5/200715:23MCBRIDE - take a look95
03/6/200219:12McBride - Offer Update tomorrow?10

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Mcbride (MCB) Most Recent Trades

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Mcbride (MCB) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 25/4/2023 15:18 by darrin1471
Net debt is high and was a significant worry last year when the share price was half where we are today. Debt became a problem as input costs rocketed requiring more working capital to fund higher revenue and to cover losses. Worth remembering that it is just over 18 months since MCB ended their ill-advised share buyback program at 78p.
Re-financing announced in 09/22 means "no covenant tests until September 2024" other than a liquidity limit of £15m. Liquidity was £56.6m in January.
Net debt was £169.4 in January and the expectation 2 months ago was for it to be £201.5 at the end of June. That is now forecast to be £15m-£20m lower.
If I am right on falling input costs and higher margins, then the debt will fall and be far more manageable as no dividends are payable before 05/2026

Posted at 25/4/2023 09:18 by nobull
I really don't get this morning's trading update: we are making a loss, ergo our customers are really getting a free lunch at our expense, so I would expect new business wins, which is what we are getting.

I get the upgrade message in today's RNS but surely it is a downgrade in reality: just compare the "current market expectations" as reported in the RNS (i.e.before today's 'upgrade' on market expectations) with yesterday's closing market expectations as shown below: only the revenue figure matches. Look at the difference in pre-tax profit: it's as if they have made the asterisked market expectations in the RNS worse than they were last night, so that they can report an 'upgrade' this morning. But WDIK? Nothing.

To cut a long story short, I think they've left all the hard work that needs to be done to FY2024 so I'll keep my quadruple elasticated incontinence pants on (no leaks) and keep taking double dose Zopiclone and hope we meet those covenant tests in Sept 2024. I don't like reading profit downgrades written in the language of an upgrade, if that is what it is - basically the net debt is worse than FY2022 - maybe that's no bad thing as more working capital is needed to support higher sales, I wonder, but I'd like it to be lower. MCB is maybe a punt on FY2024 results being an utterly massive turnaround. JMV. Continuing to hold. P.S. see page 107 of the remuneration report for the throw-away remark on the future share price "The share price of 35p has been chosen [as the minimum price to award nil cost options at?] as it reflects the consensus forecast of McBride's share price in the forthcoming year..." We are almost there!

Below, last night's "current market expectations for 2023 and beyond":

Posted at 25/4/2023 09:17 by darrin1471
Prior to today MCB were 80% off their lows. We knew they had high levels of debt and input inflation was causing losses.
Anecdotal evidence has been that input prices have peaked and now falling. Accrol who supply paper goods to the same customer base as MCB say they will benefit as input prices stabilise and fall, in a similar but opposite way to the way they lost out when input prices rose.
Historically I believe the MCB share price fall from mid 1998 was also caused by less severe input inflation and MCB's share price recovered before the wider market, as input prices fell.
I don't think any supplier to supermarkets will be shouting from the roof tops that margins have recovered or the supermarkets will be piling on the pressure to cut prices.
Todays trading update is a significant step in the right direction. £5m-£10m profit improvement and £15m-£20m reduced debt in the 2 months since half year report is not to be sniffed at.

Posted at 06/4/2023 17:33 by darrin1471
I would not take any notice of the forecasts. Input costs are out of MCB's control. Anecdotal evidence is that input prices are flat or falling. MCB are going to keep it quiet if they are falling or customers will start asking for lower prices.
Flat revenue could indicate no price rises, lower input prices and profits.

MCB share rise YTD is 46% and the bid ended above 30p today which is a high since I invested last year.

Would not expect an update before July by which time hopefully MCB will have had 8 months of positive EBITA.

Posted at 21/3/2023 20:07 by darrin1471
His 3rd purchase of 40,000 in just over 3 months.
Always hoped this would be a recovery on the back of falling input prices. I interpreted the MCB share price rise from 2001 as falling input prices.
I'm not sure about "VPRI". It maybe that competition is fierce. Competition may have been weakened by recent input prices.
I hold Accrol who have a similar customer base in the UK selling paper goods. They have recently invested heavily in automation and are now winning market share. In their webcast they are saying they will benefit as input prices fall in a similar but opposite way to the way they lost out when input prices rose.

Posted at 13/1/2023 15:02 by darrin1471
I may be being just a bit cynical but directors no had incentive for the share price to rise before they got their annual bonuses.
It does appear wrong that they benefit from the low share price. In balance I suppose previous bonuses have been devalued by the share price drop.

35p in the remuneration report is also the analysts' target price, so that may have been the source.

MCB use 100s of different chemicals so I can not see the point in tracking individual chemicals. In general commodities are falling as is oil and gas.
I had hoped MCB would have benefited from the falls in the opposite way to which they lost out when input prices rose. However MCB may now have agreed contracts that take input prices into consideration.
Even if MCB do not benefit from the falls then they should at least be able to return to normal profit margins. This excludes the cost of the additional debt they have acquired.
If MCB survive they are worth a multiple of todays market cap. Whether that is 2x or 5x, time will tell.
This weeks price rise has taken me by surprise. I had sold MCB from within my ISA and re-bought outside my ISA as I thought some of my other holding were more likely to jump this month. doh

Posted at 14/11/2022 11:37 by nobull
Wigwammer, thanks. I can't be sure, but the auditor's report and financing agreement were both signed off on 29/9/22 (yes, I get that the financial year end is 30/06/22) but it makes no sense not to take into account post balance sheet date events, and Graham Parsons (the senior auditor) dated his report 29 09 22 (it was for a good reason the financing agreement was RNSed before the finals, right, otherwise with net current liabilities, the share price would have plummeted on the day, until the share price was stabilised by publication of the financing agreement?). Yes, I see the viability statement he signed is until 30 06 25. Fingers and toes crossed for a good outcome here.

I am just looking at that sky high OG! When the share price gets back to £1 in the blink of an eye, that's when it's right for Darrin1471 to say "I only asked you to blow the bloody door off".

I'll ask at the meeting what their most significant raw materials are and about the lags between input cost rises and negotiation of new prices with their customers.

My picture of the customers is one of thugs, armed to the teeth, who keep coming into the shop and emptying the till. I'll have to ask the Board what they are doing to stop this.

Yes, private label, by all accounts, is a growth market, but with customers like that, life is ...

Cost leadership to generate cash sounds great, and while that can probably be achieved in Liquids (the most significant division by sales?) it maybe is harder to achieve in Powders (excess capacity and customers transitioning to Unit Dosing?). Looking forward to questioning the directors about all this. ATB.

Posted at 10/8/2022 16:59 by darrin1471
hpcg - Would I be correct in saying that the GM resolution would allow MCB to borrow more from the banks as currently the articles of association currently prevent MCB from borrowing more?

I bought in slightly below the current price so I am currently happy holding as I think the current situation was priced in during June's fall from 30p.
8.47m shares(4.9%)were traded at 19.9p on June 17th. There have been no significant shareholder notifications since June 2021.
11m+ shares changed hands at around 17p during the last 9 trading days of June.
9m shares were traded between 15.25 and 18.07 in July
15%+ of the stock has changed hands between 15.25 and 19.9 in less than 8 weeks.
The volume traded and the relative price stability below 20p leads me to believe that there are those who are happy to buy at the current price.

Pre inflation MCB were a boring company that needed a bit of a shake up. They were doing this when hit by unprecedented input inflation. Inflation that could not be hedged or passed on to customers immediately. Costs have not been passed on in full yet.
MCB products are in the main essential, low cost products that should benefit during a cost of living squeeze and recession.
Competitors especially in Germany were already going bust pre inflation.
Big brands are able to and will want to maintain margins making the price differential compared to MCB products even greater. The price increase in MCB products may be greater as a percentage but the actual price increase for big brands will be more in pounds/pennies/cents
All manufacturers of similar products are facing the same issues.
Higher input costs in 2007 resulted in a share price crash but they recovered before the wider stock market as I believe they benefited early from falling input prices and increased demand for their discount products.

Posted at 09/8/2022 09:35 by darrin1471
Agree with JakNife on most of the above.
Capital reconstruction is a risk but not a done deal.
MCB share price has been steady for the last 6 weeks. Debt restructure is likely to be priced in or price would still be falling.
Wipe out of profits was due to the rise in input prices and the time lag it takes to pass these costs on. Commodity prices are now falling, so subject to the terms of the new contracts, margins should now improve.

MCB are a billion product supplier to 90% of EU's top retailers. If they had been financially stronger then they could have taken advantage of weaker competitors going bust.

Posted at 21/6/2022 20:49 by darrin1471
Wigwammer. MCB looks interesting. Thanks for the heads up.

I went into retail management when I left school 35 years ago and Robert McBride were a supplier to the company I worked for. Not relevant to an investment today but I know the sort of stuff they sell and to the market they are selling to.

This is gut reaction stuff and not research so feel free to correct anything.

Looking at their website they appear to be selling from the same range as 35 years ago except the addition of unit dosing which did not exist then. Their ranges are for private label clients and contract manufacturing.
I find it reassuring that they are essentially doing the same thing as 35 years ago. It is a market they should know well, a market that is not going away and a market that not being disrupted.

This is bottom of the market ranges sold as own brands and discounters but essential items. You can't trade down any further without giving up essential, relatively low cost items for dishwashing laundry and cleaning.

Food campaigner Jack Monroe has been highlighting higher inflation in low value food basics. The same has happened with the MCB ranges.

Input inflation for MCB has gone through the roof and it takes time to pass this on to the customer. The good news is that this is not MCB specific but the same for all competitors.
MCB input inflation has come through before consumers feel the pinch. That pinch has now started and I believe will last several years. The final consumer may be able to cut back on MCB products to a degree but I feel more are likely to trade down to MCB than are lost.
I also believe that input inflation may reverse in the near future. Not food and energy. I will need to investigate what part of MCB costs are energy related and if they hedge any input costs.
Today is a perfect storm for MCB but in a years time new contracts maybe fixed at a higher price in a environment of falling input costs and rising consumer demand for lower end essential MCB products

Mcbride share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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