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MCB Mcbride Plc

-1.00 (-0.75%)
24 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Mcbride Plc LSE:MCB London Ordinary Share GB0005746358 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.00 -0.75% 131.50 296,101 16:35:10
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
131.00 132.50 138.50 130.50 138.50
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Soap And Other Detergents 889M -11.5M -0.0661 -19.82 228.02M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:10 UT 34,124 131.50 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/6/202416:57McBride Broker targets>Ј31,433
07/9/201016:24*** McBride ***28
18/5/200715:23MCBRIDE - take a look95
03/6/200219:12McBride - Offer Update tomorrow?10

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Mcbride (MCB) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2024-06-24 15:35:10131.5034,12444,873.06UT
2024-06-24 15:29:34131.001,0701,401.70AT
2024-06-24 15:25:17131.00336440.16AT
2024-06-24 15:25:17132.00499658.68AT
2024-06-24 15:24:42132.50336445.20AT

Mcbride (MCB) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 24/6/2024 09:20 by Mcbride Daily Update
Mcbride Plc is listed in the Soap And Other Detergents sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker MCB. The last closing price for Mcbride was 132.50p.
Mcbride currently has 174,057,328 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Mcbride is £228,015,100.
Mcbride has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -19.82.
This morning MCB shares opened at 138.50p
Posted at 24/5/2024 13:56 by darrin1471
bluster, that is a real turnaround from where MCB were in mid 2022, I had not really thought beyond paying down the debt .
CEO Chris Smith instigated a MCB share buyback programme starting in 02/11/2020 when MCB share price was 63p. MCB bought 8.6 million shares in 10 months at a total cost of GBP6.8m with an average price of 79.3p.
Recent capital market day said:
1.5x to 2x Base dividend Cash
1.0x to 1.49x Additional distribution considered Cash / share buy-back / retain at Board’s discretion
Below 1.0x Special distribution considered At Board’s discretion

In the 07/09/2021 final results "Base Dividend" was one sixth of EPS and "additional distribution" was an additional one sixth of EPS.
So should we expect a dividend of 3p rising to 6.5p next year? Board may be a little more cautious after the inflation shock.
Chairman is 79, CEO 60 and CFO 62 so MCB is likely to be their last payday. CEO to move to Chairman?
Posted at 08/4/2024 16:53 by darrin1471
I sold 20k at 119p on Friday to crystallise CGT and to have funds to move into my ISA for the new financial year.
I bought back 10k near the close today for 108.075p. I will buy back the other 10K tomorrow if the share price spikes down again.

The MCB share price was already down 8p today before the holding RNS from DUMAC and Teleios. It feels more like a "managed" decine after last weeks spike.
Posted at 16/1/2024 20:39 by darrin1471
I mentioned yesterday that the high volumes on Monday had led to no price movement. This is unusual for MCB.

The opening was uncomfortable this morning as MCB is my biggest holding.
I have said for a long time that the MCB share price appears well "managed". This morning there was no "management" on opening. Sellers sold into a falling price and the only support came from the market makers. The shares were then "managed" from 8:20 with L2 showing support but not from the MMs.
Whoever was selling yesterday at 90p (after the SCSW tip) was able to buy back at sub 80p today.
I continue to hold in full.
Posted at 01/12/2023 11:32 by darrin1471
"managed" MCB share price looks like taking a pause here. 60,000 sell order sitting at 71p
Posted at 30/11/2023 16:49 by darrin1471
Crazy day on L2 today. MCB was up 17% at one point. All orders except market makers disappeared then MCB went into auction. 140K went in at 74p and was taken out. MCB share price stretched itself to much.

MCB up 65% in the month of November.
Posted at 25/11/2023 11:30 by darrin1471
miti 1000, I don't have any magic skill or system for forecasting. I was right on the direction of travel but if you look back only a few months you will see I was hoping for numbers which were significantly below what is being forecast today.

The inflation bubble we have just seen was unprecedented since the oil crisis of 1974. I invested in MCB on the basis that MCB like everybody else were not expecting the inflation spike and MCB were tied into contacts that were loss making. All competitors were likely to be in the same position. The theory was that new contracts would take into account the new input costs and steady the ship. Then as input costs fell MCB and their weakened competitors would try and hold onto margins as best they could. This is likely to happen in every industry whatever the sector where input prices rose and now are stable or falling. The advantage in this sector is that the market MCB serve is growing.
Looking back at MCB history appeared to suggest that the sector pre inflation had been going through a very competitive period of over capacity in some areas such as powders as fashions moved to liquids and pods. New liquids and pods needed new production facilities which left over capacity in powders for example. Over capacity and low margins probably led to low profits and reduced investment. I am hoping that the high inflation period killed off some competitors and reduced industry investment and capacity.
Supermarkets are well known for driving the hardest of bargains so MCB are not going to be shouting from the rooftops about future record profits. We are hearing from MCB of "stable raw material and packaging material costs", "potential increased volatility" in input prices, "upward pressures in non-material costs". When record profits come through MCB will be talking about higher volumes from existing production facilities and the success of "Programme Compass".
When supermarkets see record profits from their suppliers they will increase the pressure on prices. Supermarkets success will depend upon the strength and capacity of competitors. MCB may be able to maintain or even improve margins further by lower input prices. MCB may be able to hide exceptional profits in the accounts and drip feed them through over the coming quarters.
Privately I thought MCB management failed when they did not see the risk of inflation, when they increased debt for share buybacks and gave away 11% of the capital for a loan. They then rewarded themselves with share options at the lows. Now they have terminated the upside sharing mechanism the management look very astute and deserve their rewards for their navigation though a very difficult period. Astute management would target a high share price when those options could be exercised.

I think we are entering a period of exceptional profits. I don't know how exceptional they will be.
When I bought a chunk of MCB at under 17p there was a lot of risk. I have added as the risks reduced and I understood the company better. I have not sold any yet and continued to add throughout the year including a few before last weeks AGM trading update. I currently have 5x the number of shares I originally bought and MCB is my largest holding. An upside of 100% from here within a year looks very doable, maybe quicker. EBITDA for the current year is forecast to be 40% higher than any time in the last 10 years and there are 5% fewer shares than when MCB's share price peaked above 230p in 2017.
Posted at 25/10/2023 20:56 by darrin1471
Also earnings before tax forecast went up from £9.55m to £25.1m.
FCF only up £7.1m
I repeat. Forecast EBITDA £65.7m while highest EBITDA in last 10 years was £51m.
MCB share price still 80% down on 10 year high with 5% fewer shares.
Posted at 02/8/2023 21:09 by darrin1471
nobull: My point in 1118 was "current trading profits are back to near normal levels".
After H1 figures that will be a massive turnaround so I wanted to back it up with some numbers. If there is an error in my thinking, I hope there is somebody out there to point out the error.
"current trading profits are back to near normal levels" should put MCB back to 60p.

My expectations however are more than just "normal levels". I think MCB will make exceptional profits over the next 18 months. I can not back this up with numbers. Demand for own brand goods are rising. All suppliers need to rebuild margin and some went to the wall which will take out capacity. With rising demand, lower capacity and lower input prices MCB may be in a sweet spot for the next few quarters and beyond.
I believe MCB history shows high input prices in the late 1990's led to a collapse in the MCB share price ahead of the 2000 market fall and an early recovery for MCB as input prices fell. Recent rises in input prices were a lot more significant than 1998.
Posted at 15/7/2023 10:54 by darrin1471
Comparing H1 to limited FY information.

H1 revenue 426.3 (+30.3% at constant currency)
FY23 +"28.4% on a constant currency"
FY22 678.3
Est FY23 revenue 870.9
H2 est revenue 444.6

H1 volumes up 1.2% (2.6% in private label)
FY volumes "up 5.4% for the full year, following 12.7% growth in the fourth quarter"
By my calculation Q3 volume growth is about 7%
H1 1.2%
Q3 7%
Q4 12.7%
Accelerating volume growth.

H1 revenue minus volume growth would be 421.3
H2 revenue minus volume growth would be 404.4
From that I would say average selling prices fell by 4% in H2 due to falling input costs.

Net debt closed at GBP166.5m which is only a slight improvement on last year but a significant improvement on the guidance of 181 to 186 provided less than 3 months ago. Lower input costs and better operational profits.
Higher interest payments on the higher debt will be a profits drag for several years.

H1 adjusted operating loss -1.3
FY adjusted operating profit "materially ahead of current market expectations" (9.7) and "at the top end of the range indicated" (up to 13).
I will use 12 as my forecast
So H2 adjusted operating profit was 13.3
H1/24 adjusted operating profit should be higher than 13.3 if volumes continue to rise and falling input prices boost margins.
H2 adjusted operating profit annualised would be 26.6

In 2022 Adjusted operating loss was -24.5 EBITDA -8m eps -0.157 cf -44m debt 169m
In 2021 Adjusted operating profit was 24.1 EBITDA 39m eps -0.058 cf - 9m debt 143m
In 2020 Adjusted operating profit was 28.3 EBITDA 38m eps 0.07 cf 33m debt 146m
In 2019 Adjusted operating profit was 28.1 EBITDA 46m eps 0.014 cf -11m debt 135m
In 2018 Adjusted operating profit was 36.2 EBITDA 51m eps 0.061 cf 5m debt 126m
In 2017 Adjusted operating profit was 45.1 EBITDA 47m eps -0.015 cf 20m debt 102m
In 2016 Adjusted operating profit was 36.2 EBITDA 51m eps 0.115 cf 22m debt 116m
In 2015 Adjusted operating profit was 28.5 EBITDA 29m eps 0.017 cf - 1m debt 116m
* Adjusted operating profit taken from annual report and other numbers from fidelity

My conclusion is that MCB has seen a rapid improvement in H2 and current trading profits are back to near normal levels.
MCB share price is up 50% ytd but still only 25% to 50% of its value 2-5 years ago. IMO a 100% rise to 60p should be rapid.

I also see a possibility that MCB will make exceptional profits over the next 18 months. It depends upon the strength of MCB's competition across Europe. Pre Covid margins were under pressure as competition was fierce. That competition would have been exposed to the same cost pressures experience by MCB. How strong is that competition today, did they survive, did they go bust, has capacity been reduced, are they looking to improve margins to repair balance sheets or gain market share.
When input prices were rising MCB were on the loosing end of pre agreed pricing contracts. As input prices fall MCB should be able to rebuild margin along with competitors. MCB gaining volume could be seen as competition being weaker.

MCB has had a very difficult 2 years. As they exit debt and interest payments will be higher. However the stock has not been diluted, in fact there are currently fewer shares than 5 years ago due to the badly timed share buy back. The debt deal they did last September will, I believe dilute MCB's shares by 11% in the future.

Finally we should expect revenue going forward to be under pressure as higher volumes is unlikely to offset falling input and selling prices.
Posted at 25/4/2023 09:17 by darrin1471
Prior to today MCB were 80% off their lows. We knew they had high levels of debt and input inflation was causing losses.
Anecdotal evidence has been that input prices have peaked and now falling. Accrol who supply paper goods to the same customer base as MCB say they will benefit as input prices stabilise and fall, in a similar but opposite way to the way they lost out when input prices rose.
Historically I believe the MCB share price fall from mid 1998 was also caused by less severe input inflation and MCB's share price recovered before the wider market, as input prices fell.
I don't think any supplier to supermarkets will be shouting from the roof tops that margins have recovered or the supermarkets will be piling on the pressure to cut prices.
Todays trading update is a significant step in the right direction. £5m-£10m profit improvement and £15m-£20m reduced debt in the 2 months since half year report is not to be sniffed at.
Mcbride share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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