Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[timbo003] 22/8/2010 15:02

This might liven things up (share price wise) for Marstons and Green King next week:

[jeffian] 22/8/2010 13:02

I question some of the figures quoted above and wonder if full account has been taken of the 'rebasing' of figures following the 2009 Rights Issue? Earnings Per Share in 2009 were 13.4p (excluding 'exceptionals'), down from over 18p the year before, and are expected to decline a bit further in 2010 before recovering slightly in 2011. Analysts' estimates for 2010 are around 10p/share, so a PER of 10 would put the share price not much further north of where it is now. What eps was being anticipated to target "200p +"? The 'rebased' divi is currently 5.8p (2009 final of 3.7 + 2010 interim of 2.1) giving a yield of 6.2% rather than "over 7%". As future divi policy is to pay a divi 2x covered, it is possible that the 2010 final could be reduced slightly, but the language used at the time suggested they'd tried to pitch it at a sustainable level.

I think Eric's "frustration" is misplaced. This just isn't a 'fireworks'-type share and I suspect any progress will be of the slow-and-steady variety. Having said that, I hold and I agree with blobby that it 'ticks all the right boxes' with good assets and secure income streams. It's just a bit unfashionable at the moment (and IMHO still suffering from upsetting institutional investors with an unexpected and very dilutive Rights Issue) but will come good when the market realises that the 'death of the pub' argument has been overdone - again!

[eric gardener] 22/8/2010 06:33

Absolutely blobby it is a long term one for me, it's just frustrating to see the market strong and mars down 10% after a good trading statement.

I'm looking at these for 24 months, with div and a decent rally it could be a 30 - 40 %profit.

[blobby] 21/8/2010 23:23

EG thanks for the encouragement. It's very quiet here which I take to be a good sign. I think the the pubs sector in general is not at all trendy and there is little growth, but it seems to tick all the value investor boxes at the current share price for MARS. My target is a p/e of 10 once the current recession is over which I think will be a be a share price of 200p + and in the mean time the yield of over 7 percent is really good in comparison to other safe places to invest.

[eric gardener] 20/8/2010 15:02

blobby great to have you aboard. Buy more go wild, hey are bound to rise at some sh*ttin point.

[blobby] 20/8/2010 13:20

For the record I've just become a shareholder in MARS for the first time today. They have opened a new pub near me which looks great and I've always been a fan of the beer, so I'm now convinced that there is a great future here.

[eric gardener] 19/8/2010 14:50

well you would have thought they'd be a bit higher than they are now?

There's obviously something wrong my advfn screen today it shows marstons as blue and in positive territory, we all know this isn't possible as all we've recently been accustomed to is red.

[diku] 19/8/2010 11:42

EG...I have been asking the same question since 2009!...

[2grimbo] 18/8/2010 17:13

good ale for drinking though

[eric gardener] 18/8/2010 12:22

this is cack

[eric gardener] 11/8/2010 20:29

thanks 1aws

I will check that out tommorow.

[1aws] 11/8/2010 19:33

Eric I found this:

Marston's Plc Travel & Leisure Equiniti, Lancing 0870 600 3953

perks requires 84 ordinary shares
Eligible shareholders are entitled to a Marston's Inns and Taverns Privilege card which entitles the holder to a 20% discount on food and accommodation at participating Martson's inns and taverns.

on this site:


I'm not sure if it still applies. Since I reside in Scotland and there aren't any Marston pubs up here, it is of no use to myself.

[jeffian] 11/8/2010 19:32

I'm a certificated holder and they do send out a bunch of discount vouchers with the report and accounts. If you hold in a nominee account, I'm sure you could get in touch with the Company Secretary with your shareholding details and ask for some.

[eric gardener] 11/8/2010 19:04

I couldn't see anything on the website about that. I suspect shareholders would have to pay more.

One thing you could do whilst visiting a marstons establishment is stand at the bar and proudly proclaim the fact you are a share holder in a raised voice.

And when you pay for your bottle of old empire - relax and be safe in the knowledge you're paying your own divi!

[diku] 11/8/2010 14:14

Do shareholders get a discount at MARS Pubs/Restaurants?...

[jeffian] 11/8/2010 12:49

That's the spirit, Eric!

8-)

[eric gardener] 11/8/2010 12:46

Don't worry about the short term noise boys, decent divi in december. Just enjoy owning them and help the co. by drinking copious amounts of their products!!

[milacs] 11/8/2010 12:27

Most sectors are performing poorly.

News flow is so negative nowadays that I would not be at all surprised by a double dip recession/depression.

M

[jeffian] 06/8/2010 14:47

The whole sector seems to be stuck in a bit of a rut at the moment, m, and I can't see that changing until there is some confidence that consumer spending is not going to be savaged by 'the cuts', higher interest rates, etc.

[milacs] 06/8/2010 14:07

It huffs and it puffs but it can't break through the 100p barrier.

M

[nellie1973] 06/8/2010 12:20

Tipped in press

[electronica] 05/8/2010 22:46

evox

Which broker were you quoting?

[evox] 05/8/2010 22:37

Upgrades - Following Marston's IMS this morning we are upgrading *
* our below consensus forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected *
* recent trading. Our target price increases to 105p (100p) and we *
* retain our Hold recommendation. *
* *
* > Forecast drivers - We increase our Managed LFL assumption from *
* +1.0% to +1.5% to reflect the stronger recent trading (YTD LFL *
* sales +1.7%) in addition we now assume a 60bp increase in margins *
* YOY (was 20 bp) in line with management comments. Our tenanted LFL *
* profit assumption also increases from -5.0% to -3.5%, reflecting *
* the stronger recent trading. Assumptions for FY11 (+2.5% managed *
* LFL sales and 0.0% tenanted LFL profits) remain unchanged. *
* *
* > Forecast increases - Overall our EBIT forecasts increase from *
* GBP144.9m to GBP148.5m for FY10 (+2.5%). This drops down to a 5.0% *
* increase in PBT (GBP73.5m) and an 8.0% increase in EPS (10.0p) *
* after allowing for a 22% tax rate (was 24%). For FY11 and FY12 our *
* EPS forecasts increase 6.4% and 4.8% respectively. *
* *
* > Management remains optimistic about FY11 - There are clear *
* consumer headwinds for FY11 but management is confident in passing *
* on the VAT increase in January and managing cost inflation. *
* Although there is growing pressure on food costs from the recent *
* spike in wheat prices, Marston's supply contracts are locked in for *
* 2-3 years. For tenanted pubs the substantive estate (c90% of *
* profits) has now stabilized and the strong performance of new *
* Retail Agreements gives management confidence that this business *
* could see growth in the medium term. *
* *
* > Valuation - The stock is trading on 9.8x FY10E PE and 8.5x *
* EV/EBITDA, in line with nearest peer Greene King (GNK.L; GBP4.47; *
* 1M). However, the higher proportion of tenanted exposure (c.50% vs *
* GNK c.30%) makes us more cautious. The group is delivering solid *
* single digit EPS growth and offers a strong dividend yield of c6%, *
* but we see little reason for the shares to be re-rated.

[evox] 04/8/2010 20:13

I agree with your posts above jeffian. It's the drinking houses that are struggling out here in the sticks but the places that can offer good food are doing OK. Of course you posh lot darn sarf have too much choice anyway! (just kidding)