Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[ianood] 20/6/2018 18:11

CC2014 - re debt and IRs's we are now singing from the same hymn sheet :)

[cc2014] 20/6/2018 15:12

Bubbles in lager come from a natural fermentation process too just like ale.

the only part CO2 plays is in the delivery of the beer. Keg beer requires CO2 or mixed gas to pump it down the pipes. Cask beer is pulled through and doesn't require Co2

[baticle] 20/6/2018 13:15

Yes, Marstons tends to produce Bitters and Craft Ales which rely on a natural fermentation process so should be Ok. Your Stella and Heineken may have a problem though.

[jeffian] 20/6/2018 11:44

I think they're thinking of the fizzy lager and keg beers beloved by footie fans.

[cc2014] 20/6/2018 11:41

Beer could fall flat for World Cup as CO2 runs short

Someone needs to tell these guys the bubbles are produced as part of the fermentation process not added afterwards.

[cc2014] 20/6/2018 10:42

I took a look at the year end accounts this morning and it shows the following helpful information on page 102.

Floating debt 601m
Fixed debt (after swaps) £931m.

Total debt £1,532m

MARS has therefore protected itself on 61% of it's debt (some of it out to 2035) from interest rate rises at a weighted average interest rate of 5.3%.

I shall therefore continue to hold on my 5 year time horizon as I think they will generate more profit from their assets as the economy grows and that the affects of minimum wage, business rates, sugar tax and raw material increases caused by weak pound are already in the price.

I do not expect the share price to move up significantly until we've had at least 3-6 consecutive months of decent economic data (meaning wages rises continue to outpace inflation or consumer spending on high street far more robust than expected)

My view is that we've already seen the start of the decent economic data but the large funds won't be ready to commit until they've seen far more of it.

[cordwainer] 19/6/2018 16:21

Share options exercise price of 89p in 3 years against 98p today, perfectly illustrates a thing or two about this company. The conviction of no courage. Equal to why I didn't quite buy in at 96-97p recently.

[knowing] 19/6/2018 14:39

I know this is a little old but it is worth a read:

[ianood] 19/6/2018 10:14

CC2014, They (MARS) are paying the fixed rate i.e. like a fixed rate mortgage. Any increase in the short term rates will reduce the gap between their fixed and the floating therefore, any reduction in that gap will be of benefit to MARS. In the event of floating rates increasing to greater than the fixed rates then they are in the land of milk and honey (or beer:) )

[cc2014] 19/6/2018 10:03

Thanks Ianood.

I'm struggling to work out what this all means in the context of MARS. I'm accountant, I've just skim read IFRS9 and whilst I understand the technical terms, I'm struggling to understand much except:

1. changes have to be written to the P&L more frequently
2. accounts will be more volatile.

I guess I have one fundamental question. As the BOE raises the base rate, the gap between the base rate and what MARS has it's long term loans at will close. I assume this strengthens or weakenens the balance sheet, with the impact going to P&L but I don't know which way round.

I would be happy to assume in this that if the BOE has enough confidence to raise interest rates this would imply some recovery in the economy and therefore underlying asset prices are at worst stable.

TIA

[ianood] 19/6/2018 09:27

Longer dated swaps are akin to a fixed rate mortgage. Unfortunately, more recent accounting practice requires the swaps to have regular revaluations which are of little substance (unless your counterparty goes bust) through the P&L.

A sale and leaseback would not be possible because a significant portion of the assets are already effectively "securitised".

[manrobert] 19/6/2018 08:15

good job England didn't lose.lol

[janekane] 19/6/2018 04:55

Come on then explain why

[ianood] 18/6/2018 18:15

Get to grips with the concept of longer dated interest rate swaps!

[janekane] 18/6/2018 16:44

This is a great company the problem here is the CEO who needs to change course
He should stop spending money he can ill afford put all spending on hold and sell all the land banks this after gaining planning for housing on these sites thus doubling / trebling up on purchase cost
Swap another 50 free holds to lease buyback deals 4% rent 25year term then revert back to Mars
Use this to pay down debt
Put a pay freeze on all exec pay abolish all bonus options for these for the next 5 years
Drop the divi to 5%
High divi,s above 4//5% are rarely sustainable with this amount of debt

[cc2014] 18/6/2018 16:40

Just some idiot selling.

GNK going up again. Up 2.4% today
JDW up 2.5% today
MAB flat


It can't go on like this forever and as soon as the seller finished up we go.

(I am a little frustrated though)

[john09] 18/6/2018 16:40

Same difference

[knowing] 18/6/2018 16:31

More like shorters

[john09] 18/6/2018 16:23

Downtrend resuming?

[knowing] 18/6/2018 16:22

Over 5p off the high today

[llef] 18/6/2018 14:08

Britain’s hot weather has boosted the pub trade while hurting restaurant sales, according to new research.

Like-for-like pub sales jumped 3.5 per cent from May last year, standing in stark contrast to a 2.1 per cent like-for-like drop for the restaurant industry against the same period.

The latest results, published by Coffer Peach Business tracker, meant that overall the country’s managed pub, bar and restaurant groups saw collective like-for-like sales rise by 1.4 per cent.

hxxp://www.cityam.com/287692/restaurants-feel-heat-britain-opts-pub-gardens-sun

[deanowls] 18/6/2018 08:36

Had a look at the July statement from two and four years ago. The pubs weee broadly neutral due to food sales being lower although I would expect that the brewing and distribution will be up. Good weather will have helped. Believe the share is just too cheap. But I’ve been saying that for 18 months.

[ny boy] 18/6/2018 08:34

Thirsty work ahead..Come on England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥[7614;󠁧⏘31;, nothing I have seen so far from the other teams for us to be worried about, if we play to our capabilities, we should easily make the Quarters & more!

[chinese investor] 18/6/2018 08:07

Good Start !

[11_percent] 17/6/2018 23:12

People are pushing the C&C merger, big time...........for some reason.