Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 09/6/2018 14:03

If you look at the very long term chart you can see that Marstons is back to the 2012 lows. Is it better or worse shape than in 2012?

[11_percent] 09/6/2018 10:21

Sp performance over 1 week to 5 years.

1 week: -3.12%
1 month: -11.95%
3 months: -7.99%
6 months: -18.38%
1 year: -25.58%
2 year: -35.77%
3 year: -41.26%
5 year: -30.88%

This just does not stop going down.
Its hard to see what is going to stop the share underperforming.

The saying goes, "If you keep doing the same old thing, you get the same old result".
MARS is stuck doing the same "old thing".

[baticle] 09/6/2018 09:19

You know , I never even thought but that would be the reason and a good opportunity to buy stock in a good company at discount. I've lost a couple of dividend payers recently due to takeovers and sales and need to fill that Gap. I can't see this being out of the FTSE 250 too long, We're about a month off the next trading update and I think it will be good and get the Markets attention.

[knowing] 08/6/2018 18:04

The sellers are most probably the FTSE 250 tracker finds which were obliged to have held. They often say don't look a gift horse in the mouth and it's often situations like this in share trading which create an opportunity

[baticle] 08/6/2018 17:41

It looks like a good site, It will probably be a good earner when its finished.

[knowing] 08/6/2018 14:20

Think alot of people looking at this one Baticle. I added RBN this AM too as looks ready for a move higher and had a buy order stuck in TXH but not taken. Markets are very weird.

[baticle] 08/6/2018 11:48

There's a good chance I'll add again, the fall in the Sp makes no sense given this Years Prospects, I can only assume there is a forced seller in the wings. Just going to work out some sums as I've already bought some DIS (Distil) this morning.

[knowing] 08/6/2018 11:40

Nearly 8% dividend yield at this level.

[cc2014] 08/6/2018 09:17

Well some more at 95.8.

[llef] 08/6/2018 08:17

fullers figs for current trading which are published today, seem a bit disappointing to me.
like for like sales up 2.5%
Own beer and cider volumes down 3%

given the decent weather, i would have expected better volumes at least.

maybe MARS will have done better than Fullers, but I'm not confident of that!

[exel] 07/6/2018 23:03

Point of order, NTAV is not 142p. That is NAV (which includes some 'intangible' assets). Please correct me if I'm wrong. Having got that out of the way, I'm still holding and adding - like today, when buys beat sells 3:1. As was shown in post 396 above, MARS is perhaps being unfairly treated by the market v its peers, accepting that some stocks like GNK do maybe warrant a marginally higher rating (jeffian and I have debated this in the past, and he's been proved correct!). But 2 or 3 years on from now, we may all be asking how we let this pricing slip through our fingers.

[knowing] 07/6/2018 12:10

Taken a few more on the dip as can see this past 98p today

[baticle] 06/6/2018 14:48

Same here, added again, Weather is good, Those beer pumps should be getting Proper Ragged at the moment and people should be spilling out onto the streets with pots full of Ale ;-)

[knowing] 06/6/2018 14:32

A few more. Mr LB you should be adding at these crazy prices.

[cc2014] 06/6/2018 12:53

Added again this morning. Those charts in post 396 say it all.

No more for me unless the price goes crazy low like 90 or something.

GLA

[speedsgh] 06/6/2018 09:31

Langton Capital comment following Marston's analyst site meeting yesterday.

Note ambitions to grow Lodges business from current 1500 to 4000 rooms over medium term. Langton suggest the lodges business could be split from the core business in the longer term (separate listing?).



... Langton View: Running pubs well takes a great deal of effort.

• Units need to be located, built, staffed and serviced. Their product needs to be produced (or brewed), marketed, prepared, sold and served.

• And behind the scenes, everything (staffing, admin, finance, property function etc.) must run smoothly and invisibly and this is simply not something that can be done from a distance and with a spreadsheet.

• And when it comes to the nitty-gritty of running a pub and brewing business, Marston’s is second to none.

• The market is challenging but eating and drinking out remains an affordable aspiration for most consumers. Lodges are a growth industry and Marston’s is the largest producer of premium cask ale in the country.

• The group’s shares are trading at less than 7x this year’s (and next year’s) earnings & they offer a yield of more than 7%. Despite issues such as oversupply and rising costs, this looks to be an attractive entry point.

[the deacon] 06/6/2018 07:34

Langton - re Site VisitMARSTON'S VISIT TO NEW BUILD PUBS, LODGE ETC.:Introduction:• Marston's has been building new pubs since its 2009 Rights Issue. More than 200 have now been constructed. Locations have been specifically chosen, layouts (south-facing beer gardens, play areas etc.) have been tailored to the retailer's needs and there is no tail. Lodges have recently been a feature and are expected to be allocated more funds going forward.Trading, capital spending etc.:• At its H1 numbers last month, Marston's indicated that it would scale back its new openings programme. The group points out that:• The market has been very difficult to read over recent months. Varied weather, an early Easter, sunny Bank Holidays and now the World Cup have meant that comparables have, well, not been very comparable.• Economic indicators are mixed. Retail sales are poor but real wages are now back in growth. A degree of caution may be called for before committing funds.• The 'car-crash' in casual dining has yet to work through. More sites may become available and supply may be reduced.• Marston's has been adding to its land bank and has the capital, the sites and the people to step up its opening programme quickly if circumstances warrant it.• Re discounting, Marston's maintains that this is endemic and is a reaction to oversupply. Marston's makes selective offers (often via in-pub table talkers) but does not voucher in the way that the casual diners do. For permanent discounters, it is hard to see a road back.• Customers are loyal only to the discount and it is not possible to give discounts only to wavering would-be customers. All customers may avail themselves of vouchers and margins will suffer.• An alternative to price cutting, Marston's maintains, is better service, a more pleasant ambience, interesting buildings etc.New Build Pubs:• These should be built to the operator's specifications re location, size, layout etc.• Marston's has built over 200 new pubs since 2009. Over 60% of its Destination pubs are less than 10yrs old. Where freehold, these have generated a 'double digit return' on capital. It is hard to dispute the group's claim that this has represented a better use of capital than would have a major acquisition such as Orchid or Spirit.• Freeholds are typically funded and built from Marston's own resources. A number of freeholds have then been sold and leased back over a 30-40yr period at rents below 4%. There are no covenants.• As regards trading, Marston's maintains that the food market is reasonably strong, but competition is intense. Themes (if one is to avoid discounting) include premiumisation, convenience and provenance. Venue 'character' and the price sensitivity of its patrons tend to be inversely correlated.• Smart retailing includes upselling and stacking fridges by margin (craft beers at eye-level, standard lager on the floor) etc. but this can lead to bill shock which, in turn, leads to a reduction in the frequency of visits.• Marston's believes that there is a role for the bar even in a food-led pub. Bars should be interesting and, in busy times, they will be a profit centre as patrons wait for their table or linger in the bar after they have eaten.• Repeat visits (maximising lifetime spend) is critical. Customers should not be gouged.• Delivery is more of an issue in town centres but it does have a role to play in the suburbs. Marston's maintains that it should be marginal and not threaten to dominate one's business. There is a clear negative impact on margins if this happens. Not only is margin paid to the delivery company but the newly built pub or restaurant is underutilised in terms of covers.• Re costs, the chef market is tough. Competition for staff is more intense in the south than the north. Staff retention is more important than ever. Only 5% of Marston's staff are from the EU. This is a feature of its units being often suburban rather than city centre.Lodges:• The Market:The branded budget lodging market remains in growth. The country's no1 and no2 operators, Premier Inn and Travelodge, maintain that, in addition to underlying growth, the independent market will continue to lose ground to branded operators.• Marston's has 1,500 rooms at present. This remains a modest number vs Premier Inn but MARS has a medium term target of 4,000 rooms at which it should be able to bring more distribution in-house and offer travellers follow on lodgings if they are undertaking a leisure or business trip around the country. Marston's has current visibility on projects that will take it to 3,000 rooms.• MARS used to work with Premier Inn and Travelodge but now aspires to open lodges itself. It offers free WIFI but has recently begun to charge for breakfast (in line with its peers). Its 19 metre rooms cost around £70k per room to construct. They are on a par with the best that Premier Inn has to offer and generate £41 REVPAR against the high £40s generated by Whitbread.• Growth Plans:Were there is an opportunity to build less than 40 rooms, these will be constructed above pubs on a 'stack' system.• Lodges of 60-80 rooms plus will be free-standing but they should be next to a c200 cover pub. The group's 104 room Ebbsfleet Lodge is adjacent to the group's newly built Spring River carvery pub. The area comprises a new town with a planned 15k houses. Other pubs will be built in time & Marston's may be in the bidding for sites, the opportunity to expand Spring River, or both.• Ebbsfleet (land, lodge, pub) cost some £12m. The site is generating £75k per week or so and rising and should contribute £1.5m in EBITDA per annum. Where units are sold and leased back, rent should be covered 2.5x or more by EBITDAR.• Short term, the group is charging for breakfast and getting savvier with regard to pricing. Longer term, it will rely less on OTAs (online travel agents). These currently take c70% of business and charge 15% to 18%. The group may add rooms to existing sites.• Longer Term Prospects:Land costs are rising less rapidly than they were 3-4yrs ago but construction costs are in double-digit growth. Build time is around 2yrs. Smooth planning could shorten the timetable but this is an aspiration rather than an expectation. Housing is the main alternative use but developers know that they need to maintain balance.• The lodge business could be separated from the core, pubs & brewing organisation. Marston's is unlikely to be tempted to sell in the short or medium term. Turnover on a large site could be £50k per week from the pub and £30k from a busy lodge. Lodge margins are obviously higher as there is no product actually being 'consumed'.Langton View: Running pubs well takes a great deal of effort.• Units need to be located, built, staffed and serviced. Their product needs to be produced (or brewed), marketed, prepared, sold and served.• And behind the scenes, everything (staffing, admin, finance, property function etc.) must run smoothly and invisibly and this is simply not something that can be done from a distance and with a spreadsheet.• And when it comes to the nitty-gritty of running a pub and brewing business, Marston's is second to none.• The market is challenging but eating and drinking out remains an affordable aspiration for most consumers. Lodges are a growth industry and Marston's is the largest producer of premium cask ale in the country.• The group's shares are trading at less than 7x this year's (and next year's) earnings & they offer a yield of more than 7%. Despite issues such as oversupply and rising costs, this looks to be an attractive entry point.

[spacecake] 05/6/2018 19:39

Getting tossed out of the FTSE 250 and into the FTSE Small Cap/ FTSE 350 index - can Ralph hold on ?

[baticle] 05/6/2018 14:04

Well...…..I've added to my opening position, I think they'll have a good Summer !

[manrobert] 05/6/2018 13:52

the deacon that's ok thought I had read it was leaving just wasn't sure when and thanks to 2wild.

[cc2014] 05/6/2018 13:00

GNK up 4.5%, JDW up 1.3%, MAB up 1.0% and GNK absolutely flying.

I just added to my long term position and added a load of CFD's to short term trade.

Seems to be like the rise in the sector can't be ignored forever and MARS will correct FTSE demotion or not.

I think the market has lost the plot here.

As for GNK not sure what is going on there as it's rising on low volume but it shows you what a stock will do once the trend is established.