Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[123trev] 06/7/2018 12:04

While I would agree with you on all those points posted above that in itself casts a dark shadow for me because I’ve experienced the same thing a few times and those ingredients have come to spell,TROUBLE AHEAD,Since the last financial crisis I have done very well but that’s on the back of bubbles created everywhere and easy cash for some anyway! But the consequences of this shall be dire because each crisis is always bigger than the last and the next blowout will be biblical and if everybody takes a good hard look that’s obvious.Im not a doom monger as such but a keen economist and I think I no what’s coming.

[rcturner2] 06/7/2018 07:47

I run a business consultancy and we assist companies involved in litigation. My clients are mainly overseas multinationals and more local SMEs. All of my clients are doing well. In the 3 areas I know locally, Cambridge, Oxford and Milton Keynes all are absolutely flying, there is simply not enough people to fill the jobs. Try getting a tradesman in this area, my decorator who normally would come within one month has over 6 months of work. I have been turning away work for over 2 years. The local builders, Burgess in Buckingham are absolutely snowed under (give then a ring). Whenever I fly from Luton or Heathrow both airports are incredibly busy, all of the pubs I use for food and drink (for example the Black Horse in Woburn and the Thatched Inn at Adstock) are again busy every night of the week and booking is essential. I could go on.

[illiswilgig] 05/7/2018 21:57

Good on you Tiltonboy.

And if it does turn out that Brum is where its happening - thats good for MARS with it's midlands focus.

cheers

[tiltonboy] 05/7/2018 21:18

I like a nice steak, and its not the most upmarket, but Miller & Carter consistently delivers. I can go over to the Black Boy at Knowle, and struggle to get a table.

Pubs in the fashionable parts of the city centre are heaving.

I just do not subscribe to your theory that its only retirees that have any disposable income.

My eldest is a sparky, and has more work than he can cope with. Perhaps Brum is the place to be, and is not representative of other parts of the country.

[my retirement fund] 05/7/2018 19:01

Tilton flavoured pub/restaurants in brum What are they then ? I mean we had to book ahead recently but it was Paul Aimsworths No6 and Rick Steins the Sea Food Restaurant in Padstow.

[tiltonboy] 05/7/2018 16:43

MRF,

I can only speak from my viewpoint, but around Brummieland, I have to book days ahead to get in my favoured pub/restaurant. I see prosperity across a range of age groups, and people willing to spend their money. Agreed the landscape is changing, but I see people moving up the chain, not down. Youngsters happy to pay inflated prices for craft beers, and want to be out and about.

Retail might be on it's feet in highly leveraged companies, and indeed there are huge cost pressures in leisure...but I think there is enough business around to make an honest buck. The issues are in the price for me.

[my retirement fund] 05/7/2018 15:51

Well so do I. The only people with money to throw away are the provisioned retired which is pretty fortunate for me as I supply and fit motorhome spares mostly to old folk who would sooner pay someone to change a lightbulb rather than risk doing it themselves.So what is it you do that makes you think people have never had it so good here, obvously not retail or restaurants!

[knowing] 05/7/2018 13:50

Well sit on the side or



With the bargain price of MARS it could be a prime candidate

[rcturner2] 05/7/2018 13:14

Buckingham, lol.

Run my own business, I can see the economy pretty close up.

[my retirement fund] 05/7/2018 13:08

Rct really and how many consecutive quarters of inflation? Inflation in the teeth of the 2015 oil crash, one of the largest global deflationary events in living memory.What planet are some of you folks living on ? I doubt you even live in the UK do you. Where are you France, the US or Thailand?

[ttg100] 05/7/2018 12:33

doesn't seem able to hold above 100 so dumped mine at small gain
GL everyone

[rcturner2] 05/7/2018 10:57

20 consecutive quarters of gdp growth all the way back to 2013.

Unemployment at its lowest and employment at its highest since the 70s.

[rcturner2] 05/7/2018 10:55

MRF, people are not getting poorer, that is typical Guardian and BBC rubbish.

[cc2014] 05/7/2018 10:40

Meanwhile the various PMI's keep beating expectations

The economy has turned, tax receipts have turned, real wages have turned.

I'm afraid the algo bots, FTSE trackers and passive funds haven't noticed any of this as they keep reinforcing each other's behaviour.

I'm happy to be 99% invested right now.

[mr_spock] 05/7/2018 10:34

From Langton Capital daily email (worth signing up to):

The pub sector is set to return to positive outlet growth within the next five years, the MCA has reported. The MCA’s Pub Market Report has found that the resurgence of the wet-led model is helping to reverse fortunes for the sector.

[jeffian] 05/7/2018 10:28

Au contraire, drinking beer and eating pub food has proved time and again to be remarkably resilient in recessions as people 'trade down' from restaurants and more expensive entertainment. However bad things get, it isn't within human nature to sit at home all day every day eating cold baked beans from the tin and watching re-runs of 'The Good Life'!

[my retirement fund] 05/7/2018 10:21

#613 doesn't really require much detective work. People in the UK are getting poorer so they have less money to spend outside essentials.This is an accelerating trend as brexit approaches and post brexit may get a lot worse.Drinking beer and eating pub food is a dying luxury now.

[jeffian] 05/7/2018 10:11

#613,

"Whats not clear is why the slide happened in 2007/08 - other than the wider market generically tanking?"

You have to remember how bad things were in 2007/8. There were genuine fears that the worldwide banking system would collapse and anything with high debt was crucified. Never mind MARS, at the time Enterprise Inns went from £8 to 26p! (and they managed to avoid an emergency - or any - Rights Issue!).

[careful] 05/7/2018 09:26

We sometimes forget that high frequency traders and shorters are 'black box' auto traders that merely follow trends.
Millions of transactions per day.
This leads shameless ramping or de ramping to support their positions.

Such intelligent discussion on this thread about fundamentals is refreshing. In the long run are all that matters.

The shameless ramping on CNBC of Amazon, plus the investment index tracking ETF'S make it automatic that shares such as Amazon will stay overvalued.
If we all bought tracking ETF's then the market would never change.

[quepassa] 05/7/2018 08:37

615.

yes....by shorting them!!


Marston's 3.7% shorted. That's a lot. Within TOP 50 most shorted UK stocks.



Good Luck ALL.


QP

[illiswilgig] 05/7/2018 08:25

QP,

thanks for your response - though less of the 'dear boy' if you please :-)

'I know that your comfort zone is in the old world industries (coal, beer)which are in run-down mode and long may you prosper. I know you bizzarely don't seem to care if your capital diminishes significantly providing you receive a dividend.'

Thats actually quite funny! I rarely invest in old world industries - only when I see what I perceive to be a special situation - though I can understand why you would get that view. The reverse is true, most of my investments are in growth industries and (in my view) I am probably more concerned about capital losses than those who are prepard to invest at sky-high valuations.

cheers

Illis

[rcturner2] 05/7/2018 08:06

QP I have seen on lots of threads is obsessed with a "declining sector" viewpoint. He misses the point that there is plenty of money to be made in declining sectors. The participants in the market are fully aware that brewing and pubs are under pressure, hence the lowly rating attached to shares such as Marstons.

[quepassa] 05/7/2018 05:21

Good posts Quady. Well done. Great name.


I do hope for your sake that you are connected:

hXXps://quadywinery.com


I can HIGHLY recommend Quady's Essencia Orange muscatel as perhaps the finest dessert wine I have ever tasted. Nor is Quady's Elysium Black muscat to be less admired.



It's absolutely possible you might continue to get a yield with Marston's but it is ex-growth and the market is in decline. Growth is elsewhere. The share price performance whichever way you cut it or try to excuse it, has been a complete DISASTER ZONE for the last decade. And isn't going to get better.




Careful just doesn't understand. Amazon isn't at all stretched. IT DOESN'T PAY DIVIDENDS but rather REINVESTS all profits into the business. That is why it has grown staggeringly and will continue to do so unlike a company such as Marston's which pays overly generous dividends and cannot invest in reinventing itself.

If you use old school metrics to value tech companies, you can never possibly even start to comprehend them. - Even Warren Buffet has come to accept and to admit that with the likes of Apple, Google and Amazon which are the most valuable companies in the world.



Brewdog is interesting. Just look at what they are brewing, Dead Pony Club, Jet Black Heart, 5AM Saint. That's where the growth is in craft beers with new format names and online marketing techniques targeted at younger generations:

hxxps://www.brewdog.com/


Martsons may have some good beers but they are antediluvian and caught in the uneasy mid-ground in a terrible and declining sector, with 720 pubs closing per year.



ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quady] 05/7/2018 01:12

Ta Jeffian,
I've just been reading the posts here from 2007 through to late 2010.
The 2010 material looks like this the posts here over the last year (that's how long I've been lurking).

Folk asking about the debt, folk saying the price will turn around but for now taking the high divi until it does. You saying the same thing about institutionals being annoyed. However, back then the view was it'd be forgotten over time.

Whats not clear is why the slide happened in 2007/08 - other than the wider market generically tanking?

I'm similarly unclear why the market has rerated Marstons lower after the share issue last year. Especially with a rising market backdrop in the second half of 2007 Sure, a surprise and I could understand a swift swing down to 120. But the price has drifted lower for no obvious reason. It falls on GNK's bad new but doesn't rise with it. I understand why the interim results were panned due to the exceptionals but following that the ace weather and bonus football performance have done nothing.

Having run the shares up to 170p post rights issue I don't feel that's the problem. Unclear what has depressed the share price though. Thoughts welcome.

[jeffian] 04/7/2018 23:48

"I'd be interested in others on here wisedom on why the share price fell so hard and hasn't bounced back."

They seriously hacked off the City/Institutional investors with the (arguably unnecessary and very) deep-discounted Rights Issue and dividend cut in 2009 and growth since then has been pedestrian so maybe 'the market' thinks a single-figure PER is right until they show they can generate real growth and won't spring any nasty unexpected surprises? In the meantime, they pay a high and maintainable dividend which is why I hold them until they get their act together.