Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[123trev] 26/6/2018 22:08

ianood,the thing is I do understand just wait and see lad.

[dinvester] 26/6/2018 21:26

Jeffian; My opinion is sell at 20 - 25% rise, or when stagnating, if the signs are that there will no further significant increase in the next 12 months or so.

[jeffian] 26/6/2018 20:31

"for what it’s worth I normally find your posts quite informative but you really can’t afford to forget about any stock." - 123Trev

"Our favorite holding period is forever." - Warren Buffet.

Take your pick!

I have stocks in my portfolio that I've held for 40 years. My best performing 'dummy portfolio' was the stocks I've sold. My Old Mum - who died in 2016 aged 92 - never sold a share in her life and ended up quite well off (including GEC/Marconi being one of her largest holdings at one point!). It's 'horses for courses' but MARS fits the bill for some (me) and it's easy to hold a share through the lows and highs if it's paying a dividend while you wait.

[ianood] 26/6/2018 19:28

As I said, if you understand it!

[123trev] 26/6/2018 17:00

Sorry RCT totally disagree and for what it’s worth I normally find your posts quite informative but you really can’t afford to forget about any stock.Barclays and quite rightly so is factoring in the downside of Brexit and on top of this now we have the feel of what maybe a long and costly to everyone trade war don’t really follow broker forecasts but this one I’m certain is correct with the possibility of even more downside.Why own this stock at present with the divi paid and such uncertainty and why buy at £1 when you will probably get this below 90p given the trajectory of this stock over recent years that looks like a fair bet to me and that juicy divi yield is paid for a reason.

[the argus] 26/6/2018 15:26

Agreed RCT, a 7% yield which is well covered and a hardly racy PE of 7.4, it's in the "fire and forget" part of my portfolio and will stay there unless there is a fundamental change in the business.

A.

[ianood] 26/6/2018 15:17

RCT2 - agreed, I would also add if you understand it (which many don't)!

[rcturner2] 26/6/2018 14:53

I don't see the point of sweating over a share like Marstons. If you like it, buy the share and forget about it.

[the argus] 26/6/2018 14:33

Trev,

Going by what I've just seen in in a 2 minute Google, in the minds of the Brokers who cover MARS, they are more positive than you are, so I guess we'll just have to watch and see how it plays out.

Forecasts range form 90p to 140p, so ~10% downside to 40% upside and 7% divi while the market decides who's right - Barclays or all the other Brokers covering the stock!

A.

[mr_spock] 26/6/2018 14:09

Still think the news here is essentially positive bearing in mind the economic uncertainty triggered by Brexit.
- Market share is increasing.
- New distribution deals will open up new distribution points for MARS beers.
- Charles Wells brands (Youngs, McEwans, etc) will help MARS to penetrate new geographies.
All that has got to be worth something.

[123trev] 26/6/2018 13:53

To be honest it’s all subjective depending on where and who you are of course and I’m no snob or food critic.However my views and yours play no role in the minds of those who move this share and my opinion is they armed with all the negatives around lately will seek to continue to mark this down at every opportunity this might not sit well with many but these people thrive on the back of the retail investor and have always been more successful.I will stick with my prediction because of that debt and the level placed on those intangibles that’s how I think they will see it but I will be happy to be proved wrong.

[cc2014] 26/6/2018 12:53

I think it depends where you go.

I've been to two recently. The first is at the crossroads of two busy roads in the countryside and focused mainly on food. Not the sort of place you would pop in for a pint. The beer was top notch, but the food was disappointing. There was nothing wrong with it in terms of the cooking but the quality of ingredients didn't excite me. Value for money was OK but certainly not exciting. I am not in any hurry to go back, although we had a great time and the kids loved the carvery.
I can see this model will have been really hit by the minimum wage and food cost inflation. I doubt it is making much money. They had plenty of spare tables though to drive volume!

The second is on a housing estate and is focused on drinking. The beer was fantastic. We ate as well and the food was amazing for the price. We were very lucky to get a table and had the only one available. The place was heaving. We will be returning regularly
This place must be printing money. It was a Monday evening and the bar staff were at times struggling to keep up with demand

[123trev] 26/6/2018 12:01

If you understand what your getting for your money and I do you might be shocked a few years ago my local Marston’s was very good value for money since a refit that’s just not the case.The rising costs of ingredients and wages etc have caused them to change their model which was I believe volume based and let me assure you that’s been noted in trade and not for the better and I visit a number of pubs,lol,don’t pack in drinking have a Yorkshire pudding sandwich and support your pub!

[cc2014] 26/6/2018 07:35

Amazing how posters turn up when the share price has been beaten up and start telling us how bad a shape companies are in.

Funny how they have register, have never posted on any other stock and immediately have strong opinions.

I can never figure out their motivation. With a market capitalisation of £650m nothing that gets written on here is going to make any difference to the share price

Best not to engage really and ignore. I'm still working on that one.

[knowing] 25/6/2018 23:24

According to the British Beer and Pub association takings soared this last weekend to £85M. Seems like it's a bit of a bumper few weeks ahead

[dinvester] 25/6/2018 23:17

Chairman position not filled. I would have thought someone would have jumped at the chance.
Surely it would help for many reasons.

[dinvester] 25/6/2018 23:12

Spacecake; Good post.

[cc2014] 25/6/2018 23:02

Or it tells you how irrational the market has become

[spacecake] 25/6/2018 22:26

Share price at around 40% discount to NAV - just tells you how much the market thinks the property assets are overvalued IMHO

[baticle] 25/6/2018 17:34

I think the Weather will be a significant factor this Year, I think this is one of the most consistent runs of warm and dry Weather we have had for a long while. People
want to be out and about spending money and there's nothing better than taking down that Ice cold beer with your mates in the beer Garden.
We've got a month to wait for the next trading update and all will become clear.

[ed 123] 25/6/2018 14:11

Marstons declared short positions at or above 0.5% edged up recently, to stand at 3.5%. So, there are some institutions hoping for a fall.

We might get a market moving event in three days (whether up or down!). Greene King finals are to be released on Thursday.

The heat and the football should be helping the outlook for H2?

Hoping for a good narrative from GNK's CEO and read across to Marstons.

Thanks to regular posters here. Good to read the various viewpoints and angles. :-)

[knowing] 25/6/2018 14:04

Pubs are packed this lunchtime