Oh dear KY boi |
ref the stopping of pension payments - is this not always just potentially a temporary stopgap. They have preumably 3 yearly pension reviews and any one of those reviews i would expect could forec payments to restart if they have come to a stop previously?
Perhaps they are lucky enough to be in a sweet spot the next 3 years that they may have a mini break but with £300 mill plus pension pot they are obligated to fund the facts its ok now, and not needing cash now doesnt mean that will continue to be the case medium term imho.
Hey ho i am not going to knock teh bonus of payments potnetiall stopping even if thats just for the next 3 years - every penny counts as they say. |
The raft of retail and leisure companies that have NOT provided calculations is far larger. Is it not? |
 From the DM today
"In a furious letter to the Chancellor, Premier Inn, Slug & Lettuce and Fuller's have demanded tweaks to Labour's 'regressive' plans - which will heap an extra £3.4bn on the sector.
They say hospitality is unfairly hit by changes and drastic consequences will include small businesses collapsing and job losses.
Rachel Reeves has hiked the rate paid by employees on their earnings while a lower threshold means thousands of part-time staff are now included in the tax for the first time.
They have called for an exemption for lower band taxpayers who work fewer than 20 hours per week to support venues who hire student bartenders and other flexible workers"
Signatories of the latest plea include Simon Emeny, chief executive of Fuller's, Bob Ivell, chairman of Mitchells & Butlers, David McDowall, chief executive of Slug & Lettuce owner Stonegate Group and Dominic Paul, chief executive of Premier Inn owner Whitbread.
Seems that industry leaders entirely agree that they are going to be hard hit and that student bartenders are going to be at the forefront of that. Some of us got that straight away - others have not. |
A raft of retail and leisure companies have been coming out with calculations of how much the budget changes are going to cost them , radio headlines about pubs having to cut staff , increase prices and possibly close... Where are the Marston's numbers? After all I had a stab at them straight away and I don't have access to the books.... |
30th November normally - you only need 500 shares!
"The vouchers provide you with 30% off food at participating pubs." |
I have never encouraged anyone to sell or buy - its their decision. |
Bought a few thousand Marstons shares a while ago. It's sometime in November they issue hotel discount vouchers for the following twelve months? |
Thank you for conceding fenners that the shares have hardly moved since the budget was announced, contrary to what you previously suggested. Re share price - the shares are circa 50% up on the 52 week low (where you encouraged people to sell) and around 17% down from the 52 week high (where you encouraged people to buy). No one suggesting everything is rosy, but investment is about valuation, not just repeating consensual stories |
Share price lower = KY bought in |
Actually share price is lower now than its been for a month - the same time frame that rumours about the budget have been circulating.
Once the full impact of the budget sank in the shares resumed falling
You have referred to the rise over the past couple of months - but not referred to the 17.6% fall over the last 4 weeks never mind its all rosy ... |
"You deny its anything to do with the budget.." Yes because the shares are at the same level now as they were in the hours immediately before the budget. There has been no impact worth mentioning so far.. "£25bn doesn't arrive out of thin air" - never claimed it did and I'm sure Marstons will contribute, probably not the full £25bn though.. Yes - for perspective the £50m FCF expectation covers your guesstimated wage impact more than 6-8 times over.. The company stated at the interims (last announcement) that they expect the £6m deficit payment to cease end 2024. Yes - that £6m expectation is far more concrete than your wage guesstimate (posters may recall your last guesstimate relating to fcf this year)... ATB |
Ask KY boi why he invested in Mars I am really curious 😂😂128514;😂8514; |
So wigwammer you claimed that the shares fell 31st because global markets were down , so clearly as global markets were strongly up yesterday that explains why Marstons rose too. Oh hang on Marstons were down again... You deny its anything to do with the budget whilst the employers in the UK are digesting the long-term impact and preparing to halt hiring or reduce staff numbers .
£25bn just arrives at the treasury from thin air does it ? |
And that £6m guesstimate is entirely offset by the fall out of the pension top up which ends this year. A concrete detail yet repeatedly ignored.. Are Marstons likely to be sidelined by industry wide wage cost increases? Given they are targeting £50m+ fcf pa, seems far more likely they consolidate their position as weaker players (again) fall by the wayside. Sub 0.5x book looks good value. GLA |
wigwammer - highlighting the increase in NLW is omitting the vast majority of the wage cost rise (I would hope you well know that , as being misleading is one thing , being totally ignorant and unable to process the real cost implications is something else).
So just in case you cannot comprehend the detail - its the lowering of the Ers NIC threshold by £4100 and increasing NICs at the same time that will affect almost all of the Marston's employees. Anyone earning 9100 a year will cost an extra £615 Those part time workers on NLW and below will now go into the Ers Calculation for the first time.
Reviewing the 2023 accounts it is possible to work out based on their notes that about 10% of the workforce were on NLW their cost will once again be likely c £2m+ But the NI impact across the piece will impact the other 90% this time and that will likely be over £6m
So combined about £8m per annum - which was about 25% of the underlying 2023 profit. |
Where is KY 😂😂128514;
How’s Mars doing KY? |
Marstons is evidently better placed than all the boarded up competition/capacity that has been removed from the market in recent years. They cater to a different demographic. The latest rise in the living wage is the lowest in the last 3 years, with the previous two years being close to 10%, versus this years 6.7%. Despite the material increase in wage costs, most posters here (fenners included) believe the company will post meaningful free cash flow from ops this year... So we have had three years of material wage increases, but the company is expected to generate nice free cash flow. Hmmm - I wonder how that happened.. |
You think Marstons are "better placed to absorb such cost increases" better placed than what exactly. For every employee that earns 9100 or more the company will have to "absorb" as you put it at least £615 p.a. Where those employees were on NLW for 40 hours a week they will now have to absorb £2800 p.a Where they employed 18-20 yr olds say only on 20 hours a week they will have to absorb £2357 on just those 20 hrs a week.
The ONS tells us that "The lowest-earning employees tend to be younger, aged between 16 and 21 years, and in elementary occupations (including bar staff, cleaners among others) or the hospitality industry"
The problem for the hospitality industry is its all discretionary spend and people can choose to go the pub less. |
Thank you for conceding that it is very difficult to accurately forecast the impact of rises in min wage on the cost line, and that you have repeatedly ignored more tangible positives such as the £6m fall out of pension payments... Believe it or not, the minimum wage has been materially rising for many years and Marstons has been employing people on minimum wage across that whole time. But if you are a premium operator selling to a wealthier and older demographic - in a market where large parts of the competition have been removed, - then you are better placed to absorb such cost increases. Not sure what world you are from, but you evidently have a grudge against Marstons, and/or have difficulty seeing beyond a very consensual narrative. |
You don't think the pub and hospitality industry employees lots of people on minimum wage or teenagers. You are in cloud cuckoo land. |
Fenners the shares are about where they were yesterday morning. And global markets are down. Nothing rose tinted about my world, just that I understand valuation matters, not just repeating consensual stories |
Why KY why KY???? |
Why KY why KY???? |
wigwammer and todays share price move is completely unrelated to yesterdays budget ....in your rose tinted world ? |