If you compare the share prices of Marstons with M&B and JDW, Marstons are now at a two year high while the others are well shy of their highs of recent times. Suggests that MARS has been oversold and that the city are buying into the new business model. |
Marstons announced a 10p per pint price increase a couple of days ago. |
Have we broken the 45p barrier? Where is the next stop/resistance? |
ft is positiveE |
 Outlook
• Positive current trading with continued momentum and early progress in embedding strategy across the business
• Like-for-like sales in the first six weeks grew by 3.9% marking a strong start to the year and demonstrating continued growth ahead of the market1
• Christmas bookings are tracking ahead of last year, with many venues securing high levels of reservations
• Autumn Budget on 30 October puts some additional pressure on costs, but the overall package of measures is considered manageable in the context of the Group's CMD targets
• We remain very confident in the Group's outlook and ability to drive efficiencies in its Operating Model
Justin Platt, CEO of Marston's PLC, commented:
"2024 has been a defining year for Marston's as we began an exciting new chapter as a leading pure-play hospitality business. The sale of our stake in CMBC has been transformational, enabling us to significantly reduce debt, increase our flexibility and focus on what we do best: running great local pubs.
"This single-minded focus, combined with our rejuvenated strategy, is already showing in strong financial results. We've delivered like-for-like sales growth ahead of the market, significant margin improvements and robust cash flow, while current trading is encouraging with Christmas bookings already ahead of last year.
"Community-based pubs like ours play an essential role in UK society, backed by our hardworking local teams who give our guests great experiences every single day. All this gives Marston's a superb foundation for sustainable, long-term growth, and fills us with confidence for 2025 and beyond." |
46.65p 1 year high next target. |
From the IC:-
"...the Marston’s story no longer feels like a debt trap. Improved cash flows give it more leeway to plough funds back into developing the pub formats that chief executive Justin Platt has said will generate returns on investment of at least 30 per cent.
Pilot projects for the first of these – a two-room model with a traditional pub on one side and family dining on the other – have delivered a 30 per cent uplift in visitors after “small-scale refurbishments”;, Platt said...." |
The nos below might reflect prev share price performance, but below is the take from one of Bloomberg's reporters today:
"Marston’s shares have now jumped as much as 9% after its results, solidifying its outperformance against other pub stocks this year.
It shares are up 30% in 2024, compared to declines for Mitchells & Butlers, Young & Co and JD Wetherspoon. Marston’s shares are also above their level prior to the UK’s budget announcement.
The budget had weighed on most consumer sectors, particularly hospitality, because of the extra costs that will come from increased national insurance contributions and a higher minimum wage. Marston’s, however, has one of the more the more sanguine reactions to the budget that I’ve seen from the sector thus far:
“Although this puts some additional pressure on costs, the overall package of measures is considered manageable in the context of the group’s CMD targets.” |
4*
Marstons posted encouraging preliminary results for FY24 this morning with LFL revenue growth ahead of the market and significant margin expansion driving robust EPS growth. Revenue was up 3.0% to £898.6 million and LFL sales were up 4.8%, consistently outpacing the broader market, with growth in both food and drink sales. Underlying pub operating profit was up 17.9% to £147.2 million (2023: £124.8 million) with strong topline performance and operational efficiencies delivering improvement in underlying profitability. Underlying operating margin improved over 200bps to 16.4% (2023: 14.3%) driven by energy, property and simplification efficiencies, delivering further cash upside. Underlying profit before tax of £42.1 million (2023: £25.6 million), representing growth...
...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/MARS/1047 |
Strong results,
EPS over 5p P/E under 10.
net assets after disposal 103p per share
lower debt.
Very pleased to hold this undervalued share. |
"Autumn Budget on 30 October puts some additional pressure on costs, but the overall package of measures is considered manageable in the context of the Group's CMD targets " |
"Positive current trading with continued momentum and early progress in embedding strategy across the business" |
"Robust recurring free cash flow of £43.6 million" |
Fenners struggling even more than usual :) |
The context :-
"The statutory profit from continuing operations was £17.5 million (2023: loss of £(19.2) million). The statutory loss from both continuing and discontinued operations was £(18.5) million (2023: £(9.3) million)." |
"Loss for the period 2024 -(18.5) 2023 - (9.3) |
Yes, I'm not expecting a dividend (due to the high debt levels), but any guidance of when it could be expected should send the share price up. |
Results in the morning. |
i am slightly skeptical that stuff wont turn up that stops real cashflow being lower than perhaps one could hope for. i doubt mr market is goona give them the beenfit of the doubt until they can show that on clean basis debt is coming down solely fro core operations. ok they may be able to magfin soemthing up ref assets not genrating great returns - if they can offload underpeforming stuff at book value - in that regard i kinda presume if they could have done that easily by now they would have.
on top of everything else they need to keep estate in tip top order as the newer estate adds from spoend pre covid will presumably start to be lkooking slightly tatty if they dont invest suitably. |
I am surprised there has been no comment made regarding last weeks IC article.
The biggest problem for me with Marstons has been poor management, the well respected Ken Lever arriving is most welcome:-
"....The UK market seems to be having more and more difficulty really establishing the values for businesses,” he told investors last month. Lever, a city veteran who previously chaired the boards at Biffa and RPS Group (both of which were taken private in 2023 at decent premiums), argued that the current valuation attached to Marston's makes no sense.
“It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out if you’ve got net tangible assets in excess of £1 a share, and the share price trading at around about 40p, even if the net tangible assets were overstated by 30 per cent – which they’re not, I might add – there would still be a significant value opportunity.”
CEO Justin Platt who was Chief Strategy Officer at Merlin Entertainments surprisingly speaks about acquisitions and earning a 30%+ return from capital investment.
This rather surprised me considering debt levels, though they sound confident on future cash generation.
As regards CMBC I recall the supply agreement Marstons has with them is a long term one at arms length and does not preclude Marstons from buying other brewers products.
I have bought some shares in Marstons today for the first time since 2011 when the shares were 90p each lol.
Of course this could be another false dawn for the company like previous management initiatives. Maybe results on Tuesday will give an inkling on if better times are possibly ahead. |
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