Marakand Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[ad1967mc] 17/3/2006 15:27

Why can a Khandiza decision be kept quiet, whilst a Jerooy one can't? Why would the Uzbek Government/JV partner stay silent for the sole benefit of OXS? Whether people convert at 5:1 or 3:1 makes no difference, so long as the offer is equivalent to 22p per Marakand share. Personally if forced to convert, I would be an immediate seller of OXS. Simply put, if I wanted OXS stock, I'd already own it.

[zaphod99] 17/3/2006 14:59

If both OXS and MKD sp's remain stable then there's certainly a chance to make 10% or so. However, there must be a far greater chance of the Oxus share price surging than the MKD price surging, especially since BT may want to suppress the MKD price for as long as it takes to mop up the outstanding shares (if that is indeed his intention).

Also, Oxus may not have much control over any Jerooy news which might still turn out to be positive, in which case OXS could surge in the blink of an eye. In fact it may well rise long before any official announcement if those (Kyrgyz's?) in the know pre-empt it. If Jerooy turns out to be negative then perhaps they'll choose not to make the offer to all MKD holders.

The danger is that if the Oxus share price suddenly surges then the offer may become, for example, 5 for 1. Anyone who bought MKD instead of OXS would miss out on the OXS rise and receive fewer OXS shares if they accept the revised conversion offer. In this case, the 5 for 1 offer to outstanding MKD holders would still be regarded as as fair as the 3 for 1 offer given to the institutions.

I'll continue to hold my MKD in anticipation of being offered 3 for 1 but I reckon it's a bit risky to buy more to try to gain a better deal. Good luck to those who do take a chance though.

[cezary] 17/3/2006 14:56

I see the 50k buy is listed as a sell.

[giant steps] 17/3/2006 14:37

Cezary - but they are not, PI's have the same deal as other parties NOW

[cezary] 17/3/2006 14:36

imo...if oxus dump the pi s' in mkd, it would be the worst thing regarding reputation in marketplace. but then again, its a cut-throat business and memories are short.

[giant steps] 17/3/2006 14:36

Phillis - have you sold mkd ? or are you about to relinquish to conversion ?

[phillis] 17/3/2006 14:33

tee man -unfortunately neither OXS nor MKD speak for the authorities in Uz.. with regard to the licence.
As we know they have no idea if/when such licence is to be granted( and the "they" could also appy to the authorities as well!)

[giant steps] 17/3/2006 14:27

tee man - very content to be a MKD shareholder and a buyer, as i'm sure you are

As we both know, Oxus are not buying back Marakand to rescue them from failure,
they are doing it because the opportunity to exploit $5bn in-situ metals is
one not to be ignored.

Risk of being in MKD with downside protection from Oxus is good enough for me.

[mattybuoy] 17/3/2006 14:06

FWIW I agree with Phillis on this one and now only own MKD via OXS ...

On a more jolly note:

"Dwindling stocks push zinc to new record"

[tee man] 17/3/2006 13:59

I see there is a downside possibility with MKD, but I think on balance it would reflect extremely badly on the management if the intitutions and managment got out at three to one, then an RNS stating no khandiza and the PI's get left holding the baby. I really don't think that is a likely senario but I have been known to be wrong before.

[phillis] 17/3/2006 13:51

Hi again GS
Buying MKD is a mainly theoretical -certainly limited option - viz Tee Man's one purchase. The discount disappears as soon as a few shares are purchased.
The sensible option is to own OXS and limit the tremendous downside thereby

[tee man] 17/3/2006 13:02

I've taken your advice GS (LOL), and bought 50K @19p so far so good :-)

[giant steps] 17/3/2006 10:57

My sensible course of action (no advice intended) is to buy MKD in the belief
that i will still receive 1 for 3 offer, plus all the upside of owning MKD.

Phillis, what's your 'sensible course of action' ?

( have you sold mkd ? or are you about to relinquish to conversion ? )

[giant steps] 17/3/2006 10:47

Phillis - i still disagree 'Only one sensible course of action'

Screen prices bid 18.5p offer 19.5p, volume @ 10:45 10K / 1 trade

Weak holders will fold at 18.5p,
Buyers can enter at 19p so arbitrage is getting better (worth 3.5p, 18.5%)

[phillis] 17/3/2006 10:12

GS-I didn't say there was only one choice/possibility/scenario - only one sensible one.
If you own OXS you own the majority of MKD

[Abuse team] 16/3/2006 19:12

Post removed by ADVFN

[giant steps] 16/3/2006 19:11

Phillis - be careful by saying "OXS won't buy the minority on improved terms"

Do YOU know this for sure ? I suspect not.
I strongly disagree with your comment 'Only one sensible course of action'

There are many possibilities.

Everyone should do their own research, no advice intended.

[phillis] 16/3/2006 18:16

OXS won't buy the minority on improved terms.
If you own OXS you own the majority of MKD indirectly and you are protected on the downside if Khandiza does't come through.
Only one sensible course of action

[giant steps] 16/3/2006 16:18

zaphod99 - yes, that's broadly how i see it

[ Notice the OXS ship has readily absorbed 67p sells, and stable ]

[zaphod99] 16/3/2006 16:13

To some extent OXS/MKD can control the timing of news (Jerooy, Khandiza, Akjilga, Amantaytau sulphides, Vysokovoltnoye, other corporate activity, North American listing etc) that could affect the share prices of OXS or MKD. I can't see them releasing anything positive until they've finished mopping up MKD shares (if that's their intention). By delaying the release of news, both OXS and MKD share prices should remain quite stable and once the MKD offer is wrapped up there may be a flurry of news.

[tee man] 16/3/2006 16:04

Thanks GS for your comments, very interesting situation developing here, may have to risk adding some more MKD.

[giant steps] 16/3/2006 15:46

Oh, i forgot to say $5bn in-situ metals
~ no wonder Trew wants it back !

[giant steps] 16/3/2006 15:42

tee man - yes i am ready to add more MKD but prepared to be patient.

Why ? As we head to 5th April some weak holders will unfold at 18.5p,
probably only small volume, so no rush.

Oxus will continue hoovering up MKD shareholders before making any corporate
announcements and i guess this process will only take a few weeks. In the
meantime expect block releases of OXS stock, watch for announcements.

Once over 90%, Oxus may start to show their hand, so i speculate it
will be a compulsory 1 for 3 offer on same terms as other parties.

Before breaching 90% the reducing free-float could create an interesting s/p
squeeze. Hedged positions via spreadbet co's that factored additional stock
issues to fund Khandiza may be in trouble, given MKD fundraising will now not
create the flood of expected shares; sleepless nights for shorts!


If Jerooy 'YES' then
OXS share price surges
and MKD shareholders may quickly subscribe 1 for 3 (go for arbitrage)
and may attempt to buyback some MKD !

If Khandiza 'YES' then
OXS share price surges
MKD share price surges
win-win situation (but complex!)

One problem with going for arbitrage is being left in limbo.
Imagine agreeing to irrevocable conversion with MKD price surging !!

My thoughts, no advice intended.

[ Yes, i imagine EUG presented similar arbitrage issues ]

[tee man] 16/3/2006 14:23

I see your point Zaphod99, but the conversion that has taken place already happened at about 19.5p for MKD and 66p OXS. I assume that whatever the ups and downs of either share, the ratio will remain the same so there is 10% to be made there, however nobody seems to be doing it.

[zaphod99] 16/3/2006 14:14

I believe under normal takeover rules, Oxus would have to offer the same terms to all shareholders but I don't think it applies in this case given that it isn't a takeover situation. With Marakand being registered in Guernsey, the usual LSE rules don't apply so it might be worth doing a bit of investigating before considering such a strategy.

If, for example, Oxus suddenly announce that they've got Jerooy back and the OXS share price rises to say 90p, well the 3 for 1 offer might suddenly become 5 for 1 (assuming they're not obliged to offer the same terms to all shareholders).

I'd imagine any offer will always include a slight premium for swapping MKD for OXS but it may not be an easy arbitrage situation.