Mapeley Share Discussion Threads

[kenny] 15/10/2008 08:51

From The Times today:

Mapeley, landlord to Abbey National's branches, fell 12½p to 637p, adding to a 56p fall on Monday, while other property stocks were rising. Bank nationalisation is likely to spark a lending drought for developers and Mapeley regularly refinances loans. There are also fears that Fortress Investments, the US hedge fund that floated it and retains control, may have to sell down its 57 per cent stake as it tries to raise capital.

[bot53693752467] 14/10/2008 21:56

correct me if im wrong but isnt this company loss making with a lot of debt

[gsands] 14/10/2008 21:05

I find the share price of Mapeley extraordinary.

Yes - NAV writedowns are still pending, but the rent roll should be robust and the company's borrowing is on long term deals.

By this time next year the BoE base rate could be as low as 2.5%. This enviroment will be very beneficial companies with borrowing.

My concern of course is that I have overlooked something - a previously unforeseen risk.

[rochdale] 14/10/2008 16:29

digging around

found this - seems like the falls of recent times are due to major concerns about refinancing - not sure that is as big an issue as being made out. Think they are likely to be tucking cash away.

Think the concern for me is how far the commercial property market has to fall and how much the writedowsn on NAV will be. Surely with an impending recession, little free flowing finance then the rent levels for Mapeley's property portfolio will eb under pressure.

Less rent
More debt
Higher gearing

Still happy to hold and buy more as it goes down - am aware of the risks

"Fears about the nationalisation of banks drying up lending to commercial property continued to weigh. Morgan Stanley today predicted that a lack of bank debt for UK commercial property will cause the value of UK commercial property to fall a further 23 per cent, more than its earlier assumptions of a 9 per cent fall.

The Real Estate Index however, did manage a bounce of 3 per cent, but this is more modest than most other sectors.

Mapeley, the property developer which lets properties to Government departments, may be especially vulnerable to this, since it has to regularly refinance its debt used for acquisitions with bank lenders. "

[rochdale] 14/10/2008 16:21

My order executed at 614 - that will do for me.

Chart looking excellent!

[deanforester] 14/10/2008 14:52

Orchestralis - 13 Oct'08 - 19:49 - 1264 of 1265

Presumably by not indulging in share buy-backs, they are building a pot of money to reduce the amount they would have to borrow, to replace the loan.

They did something similar last year, from page 13 of the AR:

Current trading and outlook

In March 2008 we completed the refinancing
of our £257 million Revolving Delta
acquisition facility. This has been replaced
with a new £152 million seven-year term
facility and a separate £60 million facility
maturing in April 2009. The balance
of the repayment was made with cash
from within the business. Following this
refinancing the average total cost of
borrowing across the Group is 5.7%.

[loss-leader] 14/10/2008 12:04

nice bit of aution activity. My programmed buy yesterday was very useful

ll

[orchestralis] 13/10/2008 19:49

Would they need to renegotiate new loans to cover this or would they need to sell some assets?

[deanforester] 13/10/2008 17:50

The main risk lies in renewing various loans.

They have a £60million loan repayable in April 2009. See pages 34 and 79 of the 2007 Annual report.

[orchestralis] 13/10/2008 15:44

What are the main rewards?

[hamsterwheel] 13/10/2008 15:31

The main risk is that NTAV is historic, and things might have changed recently.
And they use derivatives
And they have a chunk of debt due for repayment
And their CEO has gone
And they have one shareholder with over 50% of the shares

[orchestralis] 13/10/2008 15:19

ADVFN financial page has this having NTAV of £18.50. £6.50 is quite a discount. What are the main risks here?

[rochdale] 13/10/2008 12:43

put a limit order in at 622.5 - wonder whether it has been filled

i know that times are tough but £6 for this share is good value in my book

i did say that at much higher prices though!

[loss-leader] 13/10/2008 11:02

Today we had another big tree shake .. with share price dropping 15% before recovering. The same thing happened on Friday. Very low volume. With hindsight it would be a good time to set ridiculously low programmed buys.

ll

[gsands] 13/10/2008 08:20

Hello Chopsy,

Been to Stockholm for the weekend, so missed the market crash. Will continue to buy MAY (re-invest dividends) because I cannot see this company having fundamental problems going forward.

I cannot understand why the company are not buying back shares at this level, but I can only assume they are holding some cash back to cover unsecured borrowing which comes up for renewal (if memory serves) in April next year.

[chopsy] 10/10/2008 17:41

Another lower low close. GS are you still a buyer? I know your average is very respectably low, are you going to bring it down further. Hope you are weathering this crisis OK. Talk to us. What else do you hold?

BW

[chopsy] 08/10/2008 20:23

The trendlines suggest we are not at the bottom of the channel yet.

[chopsy] 08/10/2008 16:34

Wow! (795).

Very volatile today. I guess that 550p might have been the very (intraday) bottom. Sorry I didn't buy it. Maybe there will be another chance as a double bottom is formed. Wait for the next downday.

[chopsy] 08/10/2008 12:07

Wow!(550p).

[kiwi2007] 08/10/2008 11:40

small one, that is...

[kiwi2007] 08/10/2008 11:39

worth a gamble...

[dancing piranha] 08/10/2008 11:14

600p target reached!

[gsands] 08/10/2008 10:35

Nick,

Pretty shocking share price action today. I really cannot understand why - only that the stock is illiquid, which may explain such a fall.

I've called the company, but Nicola is away. Was not able to speak to anyone else.

I've thought long and hard to imagine how Mapeley's situation could have fundamentally changed since the last results or how todays £50bn bailout could impact the company, and I cannot think of anything.