Mapeley Share Discussion Threads

[nickcduk] 31/10/2008 08:44

0843 GMT [Dow Jones] Mapeley (MAY.LN) shares drop on concerns regarding their refinancing in 2009, says Nomura analyst who sees "Mapeley's highly leveraged business model as broken." Says investors worry whether the company can get hold of any money to refinance their very expensive debt. Mapeley also have very punitive interest rates. Reiterates sell rating and target at 238p. Shares -6.5% at 225p. (ALI)

[poppadomonlinedotcom] 31/10/2008 08:35

I agree. not looking good!

[rochdale] 31/10/2008 08:33

not looking good!

[chopsy] 31/10/2008 08:26

PS I also have no doubt that the bottom will be in two figures, if not one.

[chopsy] 31/10/2008 08:25

Wow! (161p).

Sorry I'm going to be away for a month and I wont be able to see this play out. It will be fascinating to see where the bottom is, and what the outcome is. I'm not saying the company will survive, (in its present form) but I have little doubt there will be one or more bagging opportunities along the way.

Good luck to all, traders and investors alike.

[ignoble] 30/10/2008 10:59

Not exactly a Fortress anymore ...more a caravan !

[rochdale] 30/10/2008 10:25

from the times today

"Mapeley, the property group, lost 34p to 241p amid growing fears that its 57 per cent investor Fortress, the US hedge fund, would have to sell its stake. There are reports that Fortress may be liable for some of the huge debts of the Trump Tower in Chicago."

Seems as though Fortress are in a spot of bother

[rochdale] 30/10/2008 09:41

can't last - either this is way oversold or on the way out - cannot decide which one!

[loss-leader] 30/10/2008 09:22

looks like someone pressed the wrong butotn today - it has gone blue

ll

[chopsy] 29/10/2008 20:02

If GSands is dispirited, that must be a buy signal. IMHO, DYOR.

[chopsy] 29/10/2008 20:01

According to my very basic log charting skills, we are now well into oversold territory, and due a big bounce, maybe to 550-600p. Even if the lower trendline now acts as resistance, that might be achievable.

[gsands] 29/10/2008 18:30

Everything up. Mapeley down.

Not good.

[cougaruser] 29/10/2008 12:35

Tourist. Thank you for your detailed response. Very much appreciated.

[tourist07] 29/10/2008 00:41

Cougar, I am talking about the Senior Debt (ie secured Bank Debt), for example the £60m facility.

This type of debt changes hands between banks and between banks and other financial institutions. For a company with MAY's financial profile (ie. over-indebted) the banks may well look to offload the debt - rather than make provision for it in their books.

There are a number of so called "vulture funds" who have been set up to exploit these positions. They will buy the Bank Senior Debt at less than par, hoping that the security offered by the property and rental stream will see them coming out of even the worst case scenario (ie insolvency) at a profit.

Sometimes, they will take a position and (when the other mainstream lenders are prepared to agree a restructuring) then refuse to renegotiate - sometimes they will then be bought out just to avoid the "nuisance value".

Once you are in this zone (as a borrower) there is a real danger that your fate passes into the hands of financial traders who see no further than the next few weeks and in whose interests it may be to put you into insolvency.

In my view (and I know nothing specific about MAY, but I used to work in this market), MAY is likely to be close to this zone at the moment - once you are there, its very difficult to get out.

Hope that explains my earlier post a bit.

[tt_dave] 28/10/2008 16:38

Dope007,

don't program any more just help manage them now. Mind you a lot bigger now, I think we were about 70 odd when we last talked. Now we are about 300 and owned by WB! Did you manage to get out of SCi in time to making a killing, for a time the did very well. Also do you see any value in them now? Sorry to others as this is off topic

[gsands] 28/10/2008 16:08

FFO covers the divi twice now (since they halved the divi).

You are right, for some reason they include disposals in the FFO, which I complain edto the previous CFO about as in my view they shouldn't.

I think the recurring annual FFO (minus disposals) should be about 170 a share (and rising).

[dope007] 28/10/2008 14:08

Yup thats me. Must get boring after a while on the same type of game like Lego. Although the kids love them. Just about to finish off Lego Indiana Jones with the youngest who informs me that Lego Batman is next on the agenda for us to play through :)

[tt_dave] 28/10/2008 13:29

Dope007 are you Chef as was? Yes still at TT and Lego amounst other things are keeping us nicley busy.

[dope007] 28/10/2008 12:52

tt_dave. Long time no hear and my user name has changed but are you still at tt and if you are must be very busy with all the Lego games.

[nickcduk] 28/10/2008 12:42

tt_dave - FFO is funds from operations. Not too dissimilar to cashflow.

[nickcduk] 28/10/2008 12:17

Gsands - Wondering whether you have any figures pencilled in for what MAY's recurring FFO is likely to be. Had a brief look at interims and they do seem to throw in disposals etc into the figure. Using some quick calcs it looks like the reduced dividend isn't covered by recurring FFO. Am I mistaken?