Mapeley Share Discussion Threads

[gsands] 18/9/2008 09:45

Back above £10 again. Seems to be some strong buying support in this area, as one would expect.

[gsands] 18/9/2008 08:00

Chopsy,

I agree - but where is the bottom?

With base rates likely to hit 3% this time next year, a divi of nearly 10% today looks quite tasty to me.

Also - I expect MAY's NAV to stabalise sometime next year as yields look too good to justify further write downs.

At this point I expect the share price to perform quite well.

[chopsy] 18/9/2008 07:55

No point starting the share buyback until the bottom of the slide has been reached, IMHO.

[gsands] 17/9/2008 17:42

New closing low unfortunately. Hopefully the directors are watching and thinking about cranking up the share buy back.

I can't think there would be a better way for them to create shareholder value at the moment.

[gsands] 17/9/2008 16:04

Looks like the takeover of AL. is going ahead. Hopefully Mapeley will pick up the AL portfolio from Santander. They already run the Abbey portfolio for Santander.

[gsands] 17/9/2008 16:02

It could be a new closing low for MAY. The auction will be interesting.

[chopsy] 17/9/2008 16:01

"Solid support" at 980p now breached. Where is the next support?????

[gsands] 17/9/2008 15:28

Added more at 959p

[gsands] 16/9/2008 17:18

You have summarised the risk well.

Now consider the reward: You can buy MAY at c1000p which gives a yield of around 9% - and that's after the dividend was halved. The rest is being retained now for shareholder value improving measures. The current share price is a huge discount to NAV.

So the question is - would the banks pull the plug for a technical breach of covenant, when MAY have extremely good revenues (90% of tenants are Government grade) and are covering their borrowing costs with ease? What would be in it for the bank?

I know what I think.

[alpha profit] 16/9/2008 14:51

mapeley are a highly levered property stock that has been hit badly by the ongoing fall in property values.

Unlike other prop co's one can find out the terms of its financing by searching the various CMBS listed securities on bloomberg. Mapeley was a heavy user of CMBS (400m that i can find) and agreed to LTV covenants (effectively margin calls), given the dramatic fall in commercial values mapeley can expect heavy cash calls to meet these covenants and keep its properties - on say a £100m property if you agreed to a 70% covenant and market is down 25% then you need to post cash of £21.5m - does mapeley have enough to meet these calls> its current borrowings total c£1.5bn - if the majority of this debt has LTV covenants then cash calls could sink this company.

[ignoble] 16/9/2008 14:23

Chunky volume today !

[rochdale] 16/9/2008 08:45

is that a pun?

[chopsy] 15/9/2008 17:43

Well I thought you would. I haven't dipped my toe in yet, but I MAY!

[gsands] 15/9/2008 16:44

That's me with another £10k.

Didn't think I'd get the chance again at c1000p. But this market is very ill at the moment, so today I got my chance.

[gsands] 15/9/2008 16:06

This is like a turkey shoot.

Third order of the day going in for c1000p.

Happy days :-)

[gsands] 12/9/2008 10:09

AL. shareholders are being asked to look at the offer made by Santander.

If the deal goes ahead (and I suspect it will) MAY could be about to pick up another portfolio.

[gsands] 08/9/2008 16:18

When the base rate falls to 3% and gilts follow accordingly, the yield on this stock is going be looking quite attractive at 8%

[deadly] 05/9/2008 21:40

you can make those charts say anything you want. I would guess there's a solid bottom at 980.

[chopsy] 05/9/2008 17:32

The downtrend was breached on the upside but only very briefly. We've seen bigger breaches to the downside around Jan 08.
Make sure to use logcharts and include the £40 peak.
Below £10 looks very much on the cards chartwise now.

[chopsy] 03/9/2008 08:33

No, I didn't. £40 was a good short. I'm more in the mode of trying to pick a low entry. It's looking like strong support at £10 now, so around those levels I might be tempted.

[tourist07] 03/9/2008 00:57

Wow, go figure!

Either a(nother) bid or a short opportunity looms .....