Manroy Share Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 04/2/2013 15:48

Who cares??? Oodles of posts on a penny change up or down!

Fair enough if you're trading MAN but the volume suggests this is an illiquid company more inclined to a longer term approach.

Regards,
GHF

[temelco] 04/2/2013 15:31

Call me cynical but todays gyrations just go to show how MMs operate. I don't for one moment think the two 10,000 deals at 46p are " buys". The MMs changed their prices so they could show as "buys" and still keep a flat book.

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 15:27

If there is a seller those 10k buys must be soaking it up.

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 13:40

Thanks David.

[davidosh] 04/2/2013 13:36

To be honest I rarely do Agm reports but there will probably be one there afterwards.

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 13:31

That is great news Davidosh, your views of management etc would be greatly appreciated. Will you report on sharesoc?

[mr hangman] 04/2/2013 13:30

Thought you were into fairgrounds, & not guns, David

[bookbroker] 04/2/2013 13:29

Agree to a point, however best way to flush out sellers is to mark the price up, if they don't have the stock then no deal, especially where liquidity would be the issue here, this stock is pretty much at rock bottom, so doubt there would be many sellers at these levels, only alternative to release stock is try and find existing shareholder who might wish to sate the market desire.

[davidosh] 04/2/2013 13:27

temelco asked...Anybody going to AGM 27th Feb?

I will certainly be there.

[temelco] 04/2/2013 12:53

MMs can't make a profit if the price keeps going up - it's in their interests to mark up, sell to punters then mark down trying to shake out loose stock. I remember many years ago when Ford was firing on all cylinders the " specialists" as they are called in the States kept marking the price down and claiming it was because of the selling pressure they were faced with. As these things go over there, an enquiry was called for and hey surprise surpise - turned out they weren't faced with SELLING pressure, it was BUYING pressure, and they kept dropping the price hoping to clawback what they were effectively short. It's phsycological warfare - if you buy at 50p and two days later it's back at 45p, lots and lots of people think " cut losses" - which of course means the MMs turn a pretty penny

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 12:53

mm's! love it! 45/50p

[bookbroker] 04/2/2013 12:41

I'm not directly questioning the management, but ultimately the market speaks for the cos. performance. I don't doubt that with the considerable upheaval in recent years in the Mid-East and North Africa it has made getting export orders for defence related products much more complex and drawn out, primarily to prevent arms from falling into the hands of undesirables, ideally this co. needs some heavy-hitting non-execs. with their fingers on the pulse within defence depts., reputation is everything in this game. Sure if management are correct in their forecasts then we are likely to see some good gains in Manroys valuation, however it appears the jury is still out on that one!

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 11:34

Bookbroker why do you doubt the management? The market will get clarity with the next results as you can sign contracts all day long without making any profits.

[bookbroker] 04/2/2013 11:29

The way they perform on good news, I'm surprised the MMs don't mark the price down instead, does this management really have sufficient credibility.

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 11:25

O/T Thanks GHF i'm still holding in the hope the market puts them on a decent rating sometime soon.

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 11:21

bookbroker i meant i love it, how they can manipulate a share price. Doubt it's another placing. This is a long game so see it through as all the signs are positive sellers or not, just keep the faith imv.

[bookbroker] 04/2/2013 11:14

battlebus - if they love it what's it doing back at 46.5p, gets marked up and then marked back down, there must be a large seller out there to keep depressing this share price, or we could have another placing on our hands, has nothing to do with potential defence cuts, in the big picture this is a minnow, sometimes I wonder if these directors suffer from irrational exuberance in their statements!

[glasshalfull] 04/2/2013 10:26

O/T - Not cheeky in the slightest battlebus. I document some of my movements in/out of positions but must have missed out with PHSC.

I took my dividend & sold in Aug 2012. Absolutely nothing wrong with the company and decent return from high teens, low twenties I paid in restively short timescale.

Rationale simply was whether I wished to build a significant holding in yet another illiquid small cap. Felt capital could be better utilised elsewhere & that's the only reason I moved on. I traded a lot more positions than usual in 2012, taking advantage of making a turn & compounding the capital & profit into other opportunities. Portfolio's up over 53% in 2012 as a result.

Decent trading update last week & they look v good value.

Kind regards,
GHF

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 10:22

MM'S, love it! 45/50

[geraldton1] 04/2/2013 10:15

If this thing goes up 9% on an order of £1.8m (to be fair this is decent anyway)...imagine what will happen when it finally sorts the £8m deal out. And/or wins other stuff it is no doubt pitching for at the minute. I agree with the post that MAN is in under-promise/over-deliver mode. Doesn't look like there is too much stock around at the moment either...DYOR of course.

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 10:12

O/T GHF i was wondering if it's not too cheeky of me if you still hold shares in PHSC?

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 10:02

Thanks for the feedback GHF. At fifty pence these are a bargain imv, one or two years from now these could be trading over £1 again.

[glasshalfull] 04/2/2013 09:50

Temelco - You are spot on re. The order book.

£11m for Manroy & 49% owned associate company Manroy USA (MUSA) has an order book worth $13.2m - so, approx £19m.

Allenby have released an update & conclude,

"...our short term fair value is 60p and we continue to believe that at that level Manroy's prospects would be more fairly priced in, even though the shares would still be trading at a significant discount to the Aerospace & Defence sector. As it stands, at 46p, the shares are trading on a PER of 6x 2012/13 forecast earning which falls to 3.4x earnings in the following year. Still a very attractive investment proposition."

Agree, very attractive proposition at the current price with favourable risk/reward profile.

Regards,
GHF

[battlebus2] 04/2/2013 09:27

Temelco they said in the Annual Report that MUSA now had the licence to market their products in the U.K. This is from earlier in the year.

The Directors believe the DoD has an annual requirement for approximately 10,000 M2 HMG barrels, of which approximately half were supplied by Sabre prior to its cessation of trade in 2010. Now the above contracts have been successfully novated, MUSA plans to bid for, and be involved with, this major DoD requirement. MUSA's extensive barrel manufacturing capability can be used for both the Group's US and UK businesses and so secure continuity of supply and quality for customers without reliance on external contractors.

The Group is currently completing a qualification process for barrels provided by MUSA. This process is expected to complete in the summer and will then trigger the supply of barrels from MUSA, keeping cash within the Group and helping to reduce UK barrel costs.

[temelco] 04/2/2013 09:04

Jolomo - you're not the famous Scottish painter are you? Total orders for the whole group are ( as I read it) £19 million PLUS the £8m they keep on about. That's a lot of dosh for an £8m company - especially at circa 35% margin. Battlebus, I know you read these things better than I - did I pick up in the annual repoprt and accounts that MUSA will start delivering gun barrels to UK shortly and this will mean a huge drop in barrell costs?