Lyxr $ Frn Discussion Threads

[mattybuoy] 10/5/2013 12:32

I really think that playing the Canadian oil patch based on it become perceived as not stranded again is a total no-brainer.

For example, take a look at this:-



That's 2m barrels per day of new rail capacity coming onstream in 2015, which is equivalent to two Keystone XL pipelines.

[mattybuoy] 10/5/2013 12:25

And another one. No divi with this one though, or at least not yet.

Surge Energy (T.SGY)

The company has just appointed a new CEO who will not take a salary and has bought $2.5m of shares via a PP which will form his only renumeration.

[mattybuoy] 09/5/2013 20:09

Here's another one.

Twin Butte Energy (T.TBE) is a heavy oil producer with an 8.8% yield paid monthly. In 2012 it grew production 93% but also issued a lot of shares.

The balance sheet is basically OK and the market cap is around $500m (for 17,000 boed of production).

[mattybuoy] 09/5/2013 15:12

Here's another high yielding oilie which looks like it might be interesting. A tiddler this time with a mere $25m market cap.

Shoreline Energy (T.SEQ) -

With a yield of 14% and debts twice the market cap it's not for the faint-hearted.

DYOR

[mattybuoy] 09/5/2013 14:31

Peyto hikes dividend by 33% :-)

[fangorn2] 06/5/2013 19:33

I was shocked at 49N's volatility - very illiquid but still. Down to 25 cents last I looked, up and down by 15% per day...on a reasonably regular basis.

Ah I always miss the headers...cheers. Peyto added to research list.

Hope you've had a good bank hol.

[mattybuoy] 06/5/2013 19:01

Peyto is in the header. Easily the best energy company on the planet, or at least the most honest.

FRU, FNV and ZAR are all lovely.

I'm really not sure about 49 North any more. It does seem like the stock price is not a concern of the management. I sold out ages ago, when it was still priced in dollars and before the dividend went.

[fangorn2] 06/5/2013 18:55

Peyto?

Thanks for the others. Plenty of research to get cracking on it seems. :)

Any thoughts on Freehold Royalty/Franco Nevada and Zargon out of interest.


Was also looking at 49 North - but that seems exceedingly volatile.

[mattybuoy] 06/5/2013 18:54

Outside the energy space even things like Potash Corp and Cameco are now yielding 2% or so. That's really high compared to history. These two companies are more or less monopoly operators in their areas they're just suffering from bad pricing, which won't last for ever.

[mattybuoy] 06/5/2013 18:30

Don't forget Peyto :-)

The companies which can survive the current shakeout should make out like bandits. Peyto just got there first.

[fangorn2] 06/5/2013 18:19

Cheers matey.

I'll have a butchers at Encana and Cenovus in that case. I was previously looking at Freehold Royalty/Franco Nevada & Zargon O&G for some Canadian exposure , preferably ones that paid decent divis as I'm ultimately looking to emigrate to Canada in next 4-5 years.

Appreciate the colour..

Pengrowth looks exactly the kind of thing I'm interested in...

As with all investments there is only so much time in the day hence I've not kept abreast of what's been doing on Canadian side - used to follow SPB, which went through a tough time,but its divi, but is now riding high again I see stock price wise.

[mattybuoy] 06/5/2013 18:13

Cenovus yields 3.25%, Encana yields 4.4%. However Encana is mostly gas. Cenovus is mostly oil sands via SAGD. These two used to be one company, personally I wish they had never split.

Canadian Oil Sands currently yields 7%, but the dividend is volatile as it's 100% oil sands.

It's not a big cap but Pengrowth (T.PGF) yields 9% and has publicly stated that the dividend will not be cut unless commodity prices fall drastically. This is a nice little former income trust capitalised at $2.6bn which is in the process of sorting itself out and has some really promising assets.

[fangorn2] 06/5/2013 18:02

Hey Matt,

Any of those large Cap Oilies you mention pay a decent divi out of interest - say 3.5-4.5%pa

Cheers in advance.

[mattybuoy] 06/5/2013 17:44

I have had a quick look. It doesn't compel me. That said, if they can get financed without issuing a billion shares it might do OK.

The only gold project that gives me the horn apart from Serra Pelada is Pretium's Brucejack. That's not cheap though.

Please note, I am far more interested in energy than gold. For precious metals I prefer diversified vehicles like Franco-Nevada or Sandstorm to individual companies with their vast financing and operational risks.

[scyther] 06/5/2013 16:45

Anyone on here have any thoughts on canarc resource corp. CCM.

Run by the same team as endeavour silver bradford Cooke is ceo etc

Trying to secure finance for the new Polaris gold property they have to production.

Meetings scheduled this week with Chinese group canford capital for 30mil for phase 1 of the new Polaris mine.

All for a market cap of 12mil Canadian.

Would love to hear some opinions

Scy

[mattybuoy] 06/5/2013 16:28

Big cap oilers:-

Suncor (T.SU) - market cap $46bn
Imperial Oil (T.IMO) - market cap $33bn
Canadian Natural Resource (T.CNQ) - market cap $32bn
Cenovus (T.CVE) - market cap $22bn
Encana (T.ECA) - market cap $13bn

I would take any of these over the likes of BP and Shell. Why? They have the capacity to add reserves way into the future due to huge undeveloped land holdings.

Lower down the food chain Canadian Oil Sands (T.COS) and Penn West (T.PWT) are also worth a look.

If you don't fancy having all your money in speccy juniors ...

[mattybuoy] 06/5/2013 16:19

Oil Sands

I like this picture.



It's from Imperial Oil's newly commissioned Kearl oil sands project, which is set to produce 4.6bn barrels of oil over a 40 year period.

[riggerbeautz] 03/5/2013 19:19

Grabbed a couple of trades in SDX:TSX.V last week or so. Battered for all the woes of being in Egypt last year, but now making steady progress. That was a nice high/risk reward punt for me, others can do the detail to death, it's producing but first and foremost undervalued on political concerns.

for anyone interested.

[mattybuoy] 01/5/2013 23:02

The junior mining sector is experiencing the most insider buying since after the 2008 crash ...

[mattybuoy] 27/4/2013 18:11

OK here's one.

Corridor Resources (T.CDH) -

The share price has been absolutely trashed since 2009 and it's now at around 60c (from $11). With 90m shares out that's about a $55m market cap.

The trashing is likely mostly because it's a nat gas producer. However the company has no debt and has remained cash flow positive throughout. It sells into the New England market where prices are at a significant premium to the headline Henry Hub rate.

While the current level of production is small what makes the company interesting is the potential of the assets. I won't spoil your fun, just take a look to the website.

Basically, Corridor is a low risk long-term call option on gazillions of barrels of shale oil and gas in Eastern Canada. It will need to attract JV partners but IMO this is just a matter of time.

[riggerbeautz] 26/4/2013 19:00

That's ok comment wasn't mean't to be serious.

Hmm somewhat hope things might have moved on a bit since then. Looking at the daily fluctuations last few days, no doubting their current fortunes are linked to the au price.

[mattybuoy] 25/4/2013 23:21

I don't plug I just mention ...

Here is what Serra Pelada looked like in 1986:-



The muddy guys are now COOMIGASP, Colossus's 25% JV partners.

[riggerbeautz] 25/4/2013 22:09

CSI rising nicely, feel free to plug them anytime :)