Lyxr $ Frn Discussion Threads

[sage of suffolk] 10/9/2012 09:58

Combo & Dr Kay,



May be of interest

S

[skiboy10] 06/9/2012 04:50

Dear Subscriber,

LYDIAN INTERNATIONAL ANNOUNCES ROBUST FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR ITS LOW-COST AMULSAR GOLD PROJECT IN ARMENIA

NPV of $646.0m at 5% discount rate, IRR of 27.7% (at $1,200/oz gold)

TORONTO, Ontario, September 5, 2012. Lydian International Ltd. (TSX: LYD) ("Lydian" or "the Company"), a gold-focused mineral exploration and development company, is pleased to report the results from its resource update and feasibility study at its Amulsar gold project in Armenia. All figures are in US Dollars unless otherwise stated.

[sage of suffolk] 02/9/2012 22:35

Thanks DK. And for link - I have already bought into Vane on Combo's recommendation (and sold PGD!)
How do you get to 350-750m noz's?
A smame so many GMA weblinks do not work.

[dr_kay] 02/9/2012 20:27

Sage,
All valid points and it certainly is early days for GMA. Based on similar projects in Quebec I would guess the PEA capex for Montviel will be in the region of $350-750m. Dilution can be expected, although it's impressive that they outlined a world-class REE resource (#3 largest outside China) with a single drilling campaign within a year of the IPO -- a bonus consequence being the free float is very low at 29m shares.
I'm optimistic GMA will secure financing and the PEA will be among the strongest in the sector given the tonnage, high-grades close to surface, near infrastructure, and plans to produce a iron ore concentrate, plus niobium in addition to the primary REE. I look at companies like Lynas, with its Mt Weld resource which is similar to Montviel (smaller but similar REE distribution minus the niobium and iron), and their market cap of $1 billion as they enter production later this year. Also see . all imho.

[sage of suffolk] 30/8/2012 07:41

Combo,
I have had a look at Geomega discussion thread on Stockhouse.
Impressive resource, but no reference to what costs involved of bringing into production, potential dilution of existing shareholders etc. Any thoughts, or wait for PEA September?
This co is similar to Woulfe WOF - in 2011. But WOF now days away from finalising $150M DD financing with Buffet vehicle, IMC. Producing Tungsten in early 2014, share will be re-rated.
But GMA needs to get there, resource alone not enough without finance.
Sage

[pezza4] 27/8/2012 17:01

its WZR for Western Zagros Resources in Canada, and agree they have a great few months ahead..

[lanaken] 27/8/2012 16:27

You guys might want to take a look at WZR Western Zagros Resources who look to have found a lot of oil in Kurdistan.



The politics there look to be improving fast too.

What is your view on these Matty?

repo

[pr0t0n] 27/8/2012 16:23

Just as matter of interest, GOLD QUEST MINING.
Probably the best share this year, from 5c to $1.71 in 3 months.

[mattybuoy] 22/8/2012 18:40

Can I ask again no copy and paste please.

[combo83] 22/8/2012 14:08

fyi the warrants for SSL.WT seem good value relative to SSL common stock (leveraged exposure).

[liquid millionaire] 22/8/2012 08:25

Tigris Resources are imo a very interesting play which is by all accounts listing in Canada in circa 12 months time.

[jimbowen30] 21/8/2012 22:18

Matty - SSL is a quality stock although not a bargain. I see it as a core lower risk holding that will generate returns of 15-20% a year. When I checked the price last Friday it was $9.70 - I have just checked now and seen it's $10.70. My dilemma is that I only have about 1/3 of my target holding so not sure what to do now! I hate chasing stocks but might have to average in over another few purchases

[mattybuoy] 21/8/2012 18:46

Can we lay off the copy and paste please.

jim - yes Sandstorm is a goodie, and it has the wind in its sails. Not cheap, but that is good since it lessens the chance of a takeout by FNV or RGL.

[liquid millionaire] 21/8/2012 15:35

LYD



BFS due from Lydian International (TSX: LYD) early next month

[skiboy10] 21/8/2012 15:24

Dear Subscriber,


LYDIAN INTERNATIONAL INTERSECTS NEW GOLD IN STEP-OUT DRILLING AT ARSHAK AND IN DEEP DRILLING AT ERATO; AMULSAR PROJECT ARMENIA

Initial results from exploration and step-out drilling at Amulsar show promise for resource potential at Erato and Arshak

TORONTO, Ontario, August 21st, 2012. Lydian International Ltd. (TSX: LYD) ("Lydian" or "the Company"), a gold-focused mineral exploration and development company, today announced initial results from mostly step-out and exploration drilling at its Amulsar gold project in Armenia. Amulsar is a high-sulfidation style gold project which currently hosts a CIM compliant resource of 68.2 Mt at 1.0 g/t Au (2.1 million ounces) in Indicated Category and 36.1 Mt at 0.9 g/t Au (1.1 million ounces) in Inferred Category.

Results have been received from an initial 18 drill holes at Amulsar comprising primarily step-out and exploration drilling from the Erato, Arshak and Orontes areas (see Table and Figure in Appendix).

Notable intersections include:

Drilling at Arshak returned 13 meters at 1.5 g/t gold and 37 meters at 1.0 g/t gold in step-out drill hole DDA-285 (see Figure in Appendix) and 38.5 meters at 1.0 g/t gold and 33.0 meters at 0.9 g/t gold in infill drill holes DDA-280 and DDA-281. These results confirm the Company's view that further resource potential exists beyond the current resource shell towards the southeast at Arshak. At Erato, drill hole DDA-290 intersected intervals of significant gold from a depth of 167 meters and made one of the deepest intersections to-date at Amulsar of 1.6 g/t gold over 7 meters from a depth of 304 meters down the drill string. DDA-276 also drilled at Erato intersected 37 meters at 1.0 g/t gold to the end of hole. Both drill holes suggest significant undrilled potential exists at depth at Erato. Exploration drilling at Orontes which is located about 1km to the southwest of the resource shell (see Figure in Appendix) has returned 53 meters at 1.0 g/t gold (DDA-272) but further drill holes in the area failed to intersect significant gold. The Orontes area is proving to consist of a series of steeply dipping siliceous gold mineralized zones that whilst extensive in strike and depth are limited in lateral extent. The Company intends to complete a resource estimate on the area next year.

"Drilling at Amulsar has had a slow start this year with delays on the delivery and commissioning of new drill rigs" said Tim Coughlin Lydian's President and CEO "however, we now have seven diamond drill rigs and one reverse circulation drill rig on-site with an additional new reverse circulation rig due to arrive in early September. New 3D geologic modelling has identified several areas of depth and step-out potential which we are confident will be converted into further new resources as the drill season evolves"

About Lydian International

Lydian is a gold-focused mineral exploration and development company with expertise employing "first mover" strategies in emerging exploration environments. Currently Lydian is focused on Eastern Europe and, in particular, developing its flagship Amulsar gold project in Armenia. Lydian also has a pipeline of promising early-stage gold and base metal exploration projects in the Caucasus regions.

Lydian's management team has a track record of success in grassroots discovery, in acquiring and developing undervalued assets, and in building companies. Lydian has a strong social agenda and a unique understanding of the complex social and political issues that characterise emerging environments. The Company's significant shareholders include the International Finance Corporation which is a member of the World Bank Group and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. More information can be found on Lydian's web site at www.lydianinternational.co.uk.

[jimbowen30] 21/8/2012 14:27

I posted this on the MML board yesterday. Both AUE and SSL are listed in Canada. Any views/thoughts?

I can't remember who but someone a week or two ago asked about other gold stocks. I have listened to a couple of interviews with Rick Rule and Brent Cook recently on financialsense.com and they have offered some insightful comments. Both believe that "grade is king" (MML has no problems there). They were saying that development projects with high grades, lower capex costs, higher margin and short paybacks are likely to get taken out by the midcap/acquisitive producers. These are now in favour over the multimillion oz low grade projects with high capex (Exeter resources springs to mind). If they aren't then they should be able to go into production and offer significant upside. Rule believes these companies are the cheapest they've been in 30 years.

One development company I've been looking at recently is Aureus (AUE). It has a market cap of around £65m and a resource of 1.5m oz. The DFS is out in the next few months and they expect to product around 125,000 pa for the first four years at a cash cost of $630/oz. At present they still have around $20M cash in the bank. Capex is only around $120m and I've no doubt they can raise funding given that this is the highest grade project in Africa at 3.6 g/t. All infrastructure is in place and there are no issues with roads etc. They also have some exciting exploration potential close to the New Liberty project, which should add to production in future and drilling results have been very high grade. Geopolitically, Liberia is one of the better African countries to operate in and has the first female president who has been in power since 2005 I think. However, the most important factor with any gold stock is management imo (most seem to over promise and under deliver). AUE have a heavyweight board and are run by David Reading who previously ran European Goldfields, which went from £2 to £16. He was also exploration management for Randgold and was instrumental in the discovery of the 10m oz Loulo mine. I heard Reading speak at Mines and Money last December and was very impressed. There was a good interview on Frisby's Bulls & Bears with him last September, suggesting that a 125,000 oz producer (with additional growth prospects) could be valued around $1bn. There are several other similar stocks and the whole sector is cheap but AUE is one of the best around imo.

I also continue to believe that the gold royalty companies will do well and offer a lower risk way of getting exposure to gold than producers or explorers as they can grow revenue from production but don't have to worry about rising costs. For me the pick is Sandstorm Gold (SSL) which was set up by Nolan Watson, a co-founder of Silver Wheaton, the Silver royalty company mentioned by Chip. Given that the company is still in its infancy, I think it will grow quicker than the larger players. They are listed on the TSX but getting a NYSE listing today and are close to their all time high.

I'd welcome any thoughts or comments.

Jim

[combo83] 20/8/2012 16:12

I really like the looks of Geomega Resources Inc. (V.GMA)

Very under the radar, but their Montviel resource initial 43-101 outlined 250 million tonnes at 1.45% TREO (plus Niobium). That's the 3rd largest REE resource in the world outside of China and the 2012 drilling results could potentially move it to the #2 spot (currently Avalon's Nechalacho resource).

Based on a 3-year moving average of REE prices, I figure that's an in-situ value of $204.3 billion. Over 1/3rd of the resource is from the critical rare earths (including neodymium) expected to be in short supply in years ahead.

The market cap of $10m (with $2.3m cash) is the lowest among its peers. e.g. Avalon is just a few months ahead with a market cap of $180m, Quest Rare Minerals is at a similar stage with a market cap of $77m. The whole sector seems massively oversold. To put it in perspective relative to the junior gold mining sector, on an AuEq basis GMA has 127 million oz AuEq valued at 8 cents / oz. Junior gold explorers are typically valued at $50/oz -- if GMA was valued along those lines the market cap would be closer to $6-7 billion.

Good infrastructure and the company is determined to fast-track development. The low float of 29m shares is another plus, and reflects their good fortune/skill at outlining a world-class deposit within a year of their IPO. They recently acquired some graphite properties to explore also.

I think this is very good value for $10m. Montviel is a true giant and will surely demand attention sooner or later. Its neodymium alone is worth $56 billion and global supply shortages are expected in 2015...

all imho, dyodd

[combo83] 17/8/2012 23:14

LCM does seem like an interesting addition, if I understand correctly it should provide GWG with an offtake agreement via its own subsidiary. Will check them out on stockhouse, thanks.

[jimbowen30] 17/8/2012 22:56

GWG have lots more drilling to do at Steens and they have recently be granted permission to drill around the existing areas. However, it is LCM that is the jewel in the crown as manufacturing the magnets is where the margins are. Steens guarantees them supply.

There is a great bb on stockhouse

[combo83] 17/8/2012 22:46

Just taken a look at the NI 43-101 for GWG's Steenkampskraal deposit. The TREO grades are truly impressive (18%), over 10x that reported by other companies, however the tonnage (131,500 tonnes) is low.

Still doing due dilly on another REE company with over 250m tonnes at 1.45% and a market cap a fraction of its peers. Will post when I'm done buying...

[jimbowen30] 17/8/2012 21:35

Combo - worth having a look at GWG (there is a thread here). It is the best rare earth stock around imo although it is really a "mine to market" company

[pr0t0n] 17/8/2012 18:09

Graphite is "hot" also, few links here @

[combo83] 17/8/2012 16:10

Many bargains in the rare earth element (REE) and iron ore sectors. They're out of vogue but you know there's value when companies with multi-billion dollar compliant resources have enterprise values in the $10-20m range.

For iron ore, stocks have seen declines far greater than the decline seen in iron ore spot prices. I'm keeping an eye on these and expecting a bottom soon.

For REEs, most stocks have been painted with the same brush without regard for which specific elements the deposits are enriched in. There are 15+ REEs yet investors apparently forget the price and supply/demand prospects for each differ. For example, demand for neodynium (used in magnets, air turbines, hybrid cars, etc.) and niobium (used to make steel stronger and lighter) is expected to exceed supply for years ahead. There are deposits rich in these elements yet their stocks have been marked down just as severely as deposits rich in elements where an oversupply situation is expected. Provides a good buying opportunity imho.

[marben100] 08/8/2012 15:40

I've posted some thoughts on Endeavour's (EDV) takeover of Avion (AVR) here:

I hold Avion and would be interested in any opinions here.

Cheers,

Mark
Twitter: @marben100