Lyxr $ Frn Discussion Threads

[combo83] 07/8/2012 20:05

OK Andy, I see your point. Certainly worth considering this when looking at future notes from commissioned brokers/analysts.

Sage, I received your message (re: VML) but can't reply as I'm a non-premium member. I like VML and believe it's undervalued. What sets them apart for me is their highly experienced exploration team (discoveries including Grasburg and Escondida) and their revenues from gold/silver production in Mexico which covers all their exploration/operating costs. Provided these revenues remain sustainable there should be no need to worry about dilution. It seems they have a good chance to make a Cu porphyry discovery that will warrant a significant re-rating of the company. That news could come next week, next year, or even longer, so I see it as a medium-long term investment. Unfortunately the market can overreact to negative drilling results (as happened at Peg Leg, nonsensical considering each hole costs only $100-150k and takes approx 4 weeks), but with patience and a bit of luck the rewards could be substantial. all imho.

[andy] 23/7/2012 22:50

Combo,

Where do you think Edison source the information for a client company?

Excellent opinion on Bravada by the way, I totally agree, too low grade for my liking.

[sage of suffolk] 23/7/2012 10:16

Combo, very helpful.
Thank you
S

[combo83] 23/7/2012 10:09

Andy, there is bias in the sense that their clients are self-selected -- like you say they commission a report at a time they think it will be positive. I don't see evidence for bias on Edison's side though. Not sure about Nighthawk, will check it out later, but not surprised if they get it wrong sometimes.

[andy] 23/7/2012 09:41

Combo83
23 Jul'12 - 07:12 - 789 of 791

"there will be few/no sell notes from them as they will be dealing predominantly with companies undergoing a period of success/growth and which are under the radar --"

----------

There are NO sell notes from them ever!

Clearly one of their clients would not pay for a negative report!

So there is a bias...


Most of the companies they report on are not necessarily "enjoying a period of growth or success", and the best example of this is their notes on Nighthawk, (AIM : HAWK)!

How could they have called that one so badly wrong?

[combo83] 23/7/2012 09:32

Sage, Bravada market cap seems low but based on their limited cash and high cashburn I can foresee dilution a potential issue there. Personally I like to see an explorer have enough cash to get by for at least the next two years.

Their PEA on their flagship project uses a 0.006 oz/t (0.17g/t) economic cut-off grade which I felt was v low. Based on their metallurgy indicating 62% recovery, I calculate that works out at around $5 opex per tonne of ore to break even at $1300/oz, and that's highly optimistic. They liken the deposit to Allied's hycroft mine, and Allied used a cut-off 50% higher (0.009 oz/t or 0.255g/t). If they used the same cut-off grade as AN it would almost half the size of the deposit. Still they have potential but I think upside is more modest than what those numbers above suggest. all imho.

[andy] 22/7/2012 22:44

Combo83,

The Edison notes are COMMISSIONED, ie paid for by the company being written about, and the only reason a company pays Eddisson is for a report to promote their stock.

Have you ever seen an Edison SELL recommendation?

I wonder why not?

They may seem fair, but there has to be a biase because it has to look favourable for the company picking up the bill for the report.

I largely ignore house broker notes for the same reason.

[combo83] 22/7/2012 21:19

Andy, not sure about the promotion part, but their reports seem quite fair.

These are some other companies I like: Lydian International, Belo Sun, Lara Exploration, Riverside Resources, Altius Mining, Virginia Mines, and Miranda Resources . All well-funded with high margin deposits; a couple follow the prospect generator model and are well-financed also.

[andy] 22/7/2012 09:40

Comb083,

When a company has to pay Edison to promote them, it always puts me off!

I met YNG last year,and liked the story.

[drdre] 22/7/2012 09:12

Is anyone in Jaguar Mining (JAG on the NYSE and TSX)? I picked up some at 80c after being in a while back at around $3. 4m ounces P&P reserves (not resources) @ 1.5g/t in Brazil but operationally the mines have been poor. Major shareholder (Bristol) launched a no-confidence attack on the board and most of the directors have resigned.

The interesting bit is - Shandong Gold made an approach to buy JAG in January this year for $9 per share.

I have bought in based on the current share price valued proven and probable reserves at less than $17 per ounce and also on the fact that a shareholder rights plan to prevent hostile bids expires(d) either last Wednesday or on the 31st July (the RNS's were a bit confusing).

For the full year 2011, Jaguar produced 155,764 ounces of gold, sold 155,525 ounces of gold and reported record total annual revenue of $243.1 million.

They did make a loss on that production but now capped at $60m CAD they were projected to produce in excess of 100k ounces this year alone with improvements to mine ops flowing through in 2013.

There is debt of around $300m in convertibles but these are not due till 2014.

My take is - someone will feel like they can turn around the mining ops with so much gold reserves present. Management had identified improvements but it was too little too late IMHO for them.

I think Shandong will also return. Gold, IMHO, for the Chinese is not strictly about the profit. China is aggressively builing up gold reserves and I think will take on assets which are loss making but will produce gold. I also firmly believe that the right management team could make a success out of the assets.

Does anyone hold or have a view?

[combo83] 22/7/2012 05:33

One of my favourites on TSX is Yukon-Nevada Gold (YNG). Ore roaster worth between $500m to $1b, had lots of problems, now finished an expensive refurbishment and well on the path of recovery. In Q1/Q2 2012 they restarted production and ramped up to 150,000 annualized oz per year. Very cheap with a market cap around $300m at $0.31 share price. Edison recently valued assets at $0.56 and up to $0.83. Thought to be a likely takeover candidate with Newmont and Barick in the region.

History:

Recent Analyst Report by Edison:

[pr0t0n] 29/6/2012 08:36

Taking part in the Cambridge World Resource Investment Conference, geologist and minerals maven Brent Cook, who also serves as Exploration Insights president, CEO, publisher and author, said he found more investors there looking for reasons to sell than to buy. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, he suggests that those who postpone buying decisions for too long risk missing the boat on some real "gems." Finding gems in the garbage takes serious due diligence; he advises investors to evaluate potential juniors the same way the majors do when they're hunting for companies whose assets will help replenish their dwindling reserves.

[john ford timmins] 27/6/2012 15:26

One for the future?

[mattybuoy] 05/6/2012 15:16

Gold Canyon Resources (GCU.V)

From 2c in Dec 2008 to $4 about a year ago, this stock was a real-life 200 bagger. Now trading at around $1.50

Huge low-grade gold intersections ...

[mattybuoy] 09/4/2012 18:54

Might be worth a look. It has a very tight share structure, is drilling as I type and is looking perky on the market.

From

[pr0t0n] 27/3/2012 09:01

SKY,

here it is ,

[skyship] 27/3/2012 08:52

pezza - could you perhaps include the EPIC when you post on a stock...Simba?

[pezza4] 27/3/2012 06:57

Simba was awesome yesterday peaked at 14.5 cents!

[pezza4] 22/3/2012 22:14

Andy, maybe it was tipped, but I made 50% in 10 days on that trade and have bought 3 more lots since including some tonight on a dip still massive potential on the drill but also very high risk of course.
Also doubled up on Simba who have a big year ahead with some nice licenses again high risk/reward.

[andy] 10/3/2012 00:51

pezza4,

The problem is Horn have been recommended by a newsletter tipster, and if you check the chart and particularly the volume, it becomes apparent when this 'tip' was first made.