Lpa Share Discussion Threads

[vfast] 24/1/2013 17:36

I'm pleased I didn't buy any over the last few days when I was tempted. Good company but in the short term it may drift around this level or a bit lower.

[overmars] 24/1/2013 16:56

Does anyone have a view on how much they will get for Saffron Walden?

[stewy_18] 24/1/2013 16:12

Hi Oregano,

Good analysis. Just a few comments.

I would rather the management team were more cautious. I think everyone expected the earnings to be significantly higher than it was based on their August trading update. It was not the case.

I'm not advocating buying or selling these shares. But what I have noticed is that the LPA share price responds sharply to positive or negative news. Not buying the shares before H1 implies there will be no other news between now and the end of H1. I do agree however, there is a chance that the interim statement might be a bit weak.

With a PE of just under 12, I wouldn't call the shares expensive. By my analysis they already have approximately £11-£13 million on the order book for this year (see above link). It will indeed be interesting to see if they can replicate or better £18 million revenue this year.

If the LED division can grow at 60% a year (like last year), LPA will look very cheap. It really isn't clear to me however if this is possible. For this reason, I will hold for the next few years and see what happens.

Best of luck

Stuart

[oregano] 24/1/2013 15:30

there are a few reasons why I think this may drift;
1. This latest statement is more cautions than the last.
2. They have eluded to H1 weakness, is this normal? I don't know. but,
3. It means that PBT forecasts for this year, which I have as £700k, are down on last year, and a weak H1 might mean £300k or less. Sequentially it does not look great. So why buy before H1?
4. It is not cheap. EPS may well fall this year. 6p of earnings, 12x. it has debt, working capital in these numbers is poor. This is not a recurring income business. I think you can get flat earnings for 7x.
5. People are using 84p as a starting point, but that was puffed up into these numbers. look where the shares have come from a year ago.
Just my own thoughts obviously. Interested in the alternate view.

[stewy_18] 24/1/2013 15:29

If anyone is interested, I have put some comments here:-


As always, comments welcome.

Regards

Stuart

[bigwig] 24/1/2013 08:35

The shares are thinly traded so just a small number of nervous sellers sends the price down. It looks to be more stable now after the initial set of small sales going through. A few buys and they will pick up again. The statement was positive with very little to be negative about but I guess the mention of a few delays etc set off a little flurry of small panicky sellers. That's the trouble with a thinly traded share - mind you a few buys and up they would go again!
Bw

[stegrego] 24/1/2013 08:33

Just people getting out that maybe expected trading to be better due to good start to the year previously mentioned. Also the back weighting of profits also adds somewhat to the mix.

[jamielein] 24/1/2013 08:27

Yes, but that doesn't explain a 10%+ drop today. As far as I can tell, there was nothing bad in the results (apart from the Rail Franchise issue as mentioned above.

[stegrego] 24/1/2013 08:20

As far as I know, forecast is for flat profits in this current year.

[jamielein] 24/1/2013 08:19

I've done the same and I am also extremely confused.

[pj 1] 24/1/2013 08:14

Keep re-reading the statement. Still seems positive to me despite the short term Rail Franchise issue, still winning contracts, or have I missed something else?

[stegrego] 24/1/2013 08:07

I think you may be getting ahead of yourself here CT.

[castleford tiger] 24/1/2013 07:53

Not quite but well on the way.

I see this company making 2 million in the next year. We have to get the two sites sorted which will take most of this year.

I think this is a great little company that is doing the right things.

I will give a detailed report on the accounts later, but all looks great.
I wonder what internal forecasts for this year are?

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 23/1/2013 18:23

So will we make a million? pre exc?

Still fancy 100p tomorrow.

tiger

[cheshire man] 23/1/2013 15:40

Up again I see :-)

[bigbigdave] 23/1/2013 12:22

Got all my top ups when it was on the way down from 90p, much easier to buy :o)

[cheshire man] 23/1/2013 12:18

On such a few trades too,,,,,,,,,:-)seems any small buy moves it up,,,,,,,hard to get hold of many mind you ! all IMO

[cfro] 23/1/2013 12:08

Moving up ahead of tomorrows results.

[rampmeister] 23/1/2013 11:05

it will be interesting to see value of Saffron Walden site post planning consent believe it was 0.5m. previously. Also progress with expanded plant. Once this is completed they should be able to scale up and compete for the larger more lucrative contracts. I can't remember being this enthusiastic about a company since the very early days of renesola which 4 bagged for me.

RM

[interceptor2] 22/1/2013 20:46

On 21st August Xcap Securities increased estimates to EPS 5.90p after a trading update said full year to significatly beat expectations. Xcap EPS estimate is still the same at 5.90p after two further trading updates saying in October full to meet or exceed, then in November a stronger statement saying confortably exceeded expectations.

So I'm looking forward the markets reaction to Thursdays results, the only question is imo, by how much will the beat 5.90p?

ic2...

[jamielein] 22/1/2013 18:32

Can't your stockbroker call the marketmaker to do the deal?

[vfast] 22/1/2013 17:44

Cheers IC2, would like to buy a few more but the MM's only offering small quantities.

[castleford tiger] 22/1/2013 17:18

Nothing can be bought.

My target is 100p plus on results day.

tiger

[interceptor2] 22/1/2013 14:12

vfast, Thursday 24th January

ic2...

[bigbigdave] 22/1/2013 12:25

Crikey, doesn't take much buying to shift this.