Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[pal44] 06/3/2020 07:39

corona she will go away in a month just watch ..

[ekuuleus] 06/3/2020 07:33

tricky. I saw no financial reason for it to go to 23p 7 or 8 years ago. Judging between financials and sentiment it the trick really.

The basic business is solid, and the government has a vested interest in this not going bust. The government has no interest in controlling the share price.

Lloyds is basically in a saturated market. It has limited potential for growth, either organically or, due to competition law, by take over.

This probably causes some excess risk taking on large corporate loans, such as Carillion which cost lloyds £100m's. (£500m?).

A downturn in the economy could wipe out many billions of corporate loans.

Then there are existing frauds. Reading has not worked it's way through. Mood music seems to have brushed it under the carpet so probably Noel et al have got what they want - which would be a 9 digit cost to the bank. Bristol seems to have another case so generally, an on going issue.

Interest only mortgages seem to be vulnerable. Personally, PPI was a mass fraud, so the banks got what they deserved. Interest only, I don't see any fraud there. The customers need to pay the loan back and I don't think there is any case where the customer could claim for mis-selling such a basic product.

House prices are well over valued compared to income. Any house price decrease will force CET1 up, potentially many billions. Even if everyone carries on paying their mortgage, it could make the bank insolvent.

In that respect, the government has no choice over house prices - it has to ensure house prices are always upwards so I see little risk there. On the other hand, low interest rates cause profitability issues.

Car loans are potentially over exposed. Again, any downturn could lead to large impairments.

Stock markets are very over valued on many measures. QE did not resolve the 2008 crash. We have built up massive systemic risks to the system. It was ready to pop!

Corona virus in of it's self was jut pulling the trigger on the bubble. It is also a supply and demand shock. Car sales in Chine dropped 89%. Fuel use significantly down.

For all it's impatience, the financial markets can be very slow to react. This will take 3 months for corporates to report in their financial results. Corporates such as flybe that were already in trouble will crash sooner.

Brexit is also weighing heavily on expectations for the economy and was already dragging Lloyds down. I figure that the potential corporate failures from corona virus is expected to cost Lloyds billions in loans. The knock on effect to personal finances will impair items such as car loans and mortgages. That will start dragging house prices down, and a small reduction in housing if 2% of the population succumb would force CET1 up by billions.

From a chart prospective, the trend is your friend. With all the above, I think it continuing into the 30's and possible 20's quite possible. It's a fundamentally a solid company. Those fundamentals get stronger the lower the price.

It's also worth noting that Lloyds uses the stock market to pay staff. It typically issues 1 to 2% per year in new shares. Any valuation or assessment needs to take account of that yearly dilution. Firstly, because it is a dilution, and secondly, because the stock market is subsidising Lloyds profits. That is to say, it uses the stock market to pay staff, the difference added to the bottom line.

[essentialinvestor] 06/3/2020 06:51

Ekuuleus, what type of levels do you anticipate here?, Thanks.

[ekuuleus] 06/3/2020 06:35

hellscream, you are missing the point.

Governments job is not to make us rich, it is to keep us poor. People only work when they have to.

[mitchy] 06/3/2020 05:44

I feel this conversation is like an episode of "would I lie to you". The economy is healthy, life is peachy I can eat three hot dogs at a time and not put on weight.

[mitchy] 06/3/2020 05:40

News flash - just in lloy is a bank and as such 'debt' is GOOD. That is how banks make their money (until customers start going AWOL).

[mitchy] 06/3/2020 05:33

OK , I was being somewhat 'economical' with the data but we were still growing our economy (just)instead of contracting like most of the EU ,right?

[hellscream] 06/3/2020 05:16

record government debt, record personal debt, two mortgages needed for house being PROPED up by more government debt. GLOBAL meltdown on the way very soon.

2008 is back with a VENGEANCE.

[kreature] 06/3/2020 05:16

Corona will take this sub 40 unless you think corona is about to end?

[mitchy] 06/3/2020 05:07

In a ' normal' world lloy should be double it's current value. House prices rising, record mortga

[minerve 2] 05/3/2020 23:54

I agree, the transmission isn't that high - unless you are incompetent. I don't understand why the government are giving up on contact tracing which is what is being reported.

[maxk] 05/3/2020 23:49

If it was that infectious, the whole world would have by now.


Aircraft are still flying, boats are still sailing.


London underground is still running.



Are you having a laugh?

[buywell3] 05/3/2020 23:48

buywell3 - 08 Oct 2019 - 06:27:52 - 4646 of 7097 Lloyds Bank (LLOY) 'On Topic only' - Thread - LLOY


Chart continues to perform in a negative manner

Re test of 50p IMO most likely outcome

Hence insider selling

45p low chartwise does IMO also look possible in the present political climate

[minerve 2] 05/3/2020 23:47

On Thursday night Wythenshawe hospital, in Greater Manchester, said it was no longer accepting patients into its intensive care unit after a patient tested positive for the disease.

[minerve 2] 05/3/2020 23:45

cheshire

Have you ever thought of just arranging home delivery?

When you go shopping try and not touch the trolley handle with your hands. Use your wrist area and then afterwards use hand sanitizer.

[mitchy] 05/3/2020 23:44

Another 500 point drop for the DOW after the FTSE bell should mean another 1.5% lower start for the FTSE open tomorrow.As both the FTSE and DOW have got lots of room to fall further I don't see much relief from the pain and it's likely to continue next week. Sucks to be us.Pass the smelling salts nurse.

[minerve 2] 05/3/2020 23:42

"Look forward to ongoing discussions once we're out the other side."

Yes, a real headache for all of us. I'd rather Brexit issues, much more fun.

[minerve 2] 05/3/2020 23:41

cheshire

Thanks. :)

[diku] 05/3/2020 23:41

cp...watched tail end of the QT...Tim Stanley made some good comments in favour of Home Minister...

[cheshire pete] 05/3/2020 23:28

Thanks Minerve, same to you and yours and to all on this BB. Look forward to ongoing discussions once we're out the other side.

[minerve 2] 05/3/2020 23:21

Good luck with that cheshire. Hope you and your wife stay safe. :)

[cheshire pete] 05/3/2020 23:09

As retirees in the 'vulnerable' category, my wife and I are avoiding crowds, buildings with AC and public transport. If we go shopping, we go early before it gets busy.
Not waiting for numbers to reach thresholds and for fresh measures and advice to kick in.