Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 20/12/2022 09:01

It is difficult to value news. The realisation I had over the summer was that the duration of investments is stretching far beyond the 2-2.5 years from when they listed. It makes a sensible valuation really difficult to determine, not least because the date of one definition of the steady state gets pushed back again.

By my analysis there re two steady states. One is outside the companies direct control, which is when the cash from awards matches the cash out to investments plus all other costs; conventionally cash break even. I am slightly miscategorising this as a steady state, as of course investors want cash profits, but it is a necessary stopping point on the way. The second is where the amount the company invests each year ceases to grow. Ideally the first listed would arrive soonest, meaning growth is self funded. Even so should the second steady state would make valuation much easier.

This will be why what is pretty good news, not least the indexing of the Comet award, has been greeted with enui rather than enthusiasm.

[stockstockham] 20/12/2022 08:57

They were overdue an RNS.

[kallistos] 20/12/2022 08:43

Excellent News. Patience required but this one will fly.

[kallistos] 20/12/2022 08:36

Progress on portfolio of Investments

GBP110 million Comet Group judgement in favour of funded party

largest ever claim successfully brought under the UK's 1986 Insolvency Act

Litigation Capital Management Limited (AIM:LIT), an alternative asset manager specialising in dispute financing solutions internationally, is pleased to announce positive progress on two investments within its portfolio.

Successful Judgment in investment in English court litigation

As announced on 23 June 2021, LCM entered into an agreement to provide a finance facility to Geoffrey Carton-Kelly, a partner of FRP Advisory ("FRP"), additional liquidator of CGL Realisations Ltd (In Liquidation), formerly known as Comet Group Ltd ("Comet"). This investment forms part of LCM's Fund I portfolio of investments.

In November 2022, judgment in the High Court was awarded in favour of Mr Carton- Kelly (the funded party) for approximately GBP110m. This judgment is understood to represent the largest ever (by value) preference claim successfully brought under the UK's 1986 Insolvency Act. The Defendant to the proceeding has obtained permission to appeal the judgment, which will delay the maturity of the investment, but will be paying the judgment amount into court. This investment has been significantly de-risked from both a merits and recovery risk perspective. The financial performance of this investment is protected against the passage of time by way of an increasing multiple of invested capital. The size of the investment made by LCM is within the median range for an investment within Fund I.

Clarification of press report on an LCM investment

Following recent press speculation, the Company is providing an update on a further Fund I investment involving claims against Poland under both the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) and the Australia-Poland Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT), which has now been heard by an Arbitral Tribunal. Following completion of the hearing, the Arbitral Tribunal will render an Award in due course. There is no specified date for an Award to be rendered and there is no certainty as to what the outcome of that Award will be.

[greenknight1] 20/12/2022 08:12

Great news today

[someuwin] 20/12/2022 07:18

Double good news today.

[jackson83] 16/12/2022 15:02

I know who the seller is wink wink and I'm almost done

[waterfall city] 15/12/2022 14:05

unless there's a big seller in the background, why are the market makers walking this down I wonder.

[jackson83] 15/12/2022 13:17

this could go to 50p or 500p within 3 years

[jackson83] 15/12/2022 12:04

maybe bad news is on its way

[jackson83] 15/12/2022 12:02

MORE SELLERS THAN BELIEVERS .... Opportunity TO SHORT IT ... 50p's soon

[scubadiverr] 15/12/2022 10:34

That didn't take long did it you sad git?!!

[scubadiverr] 15/12/2022 10:27

It's getting hard watching this drop every day. I take some comfort in the BOD's purchases in the hope that their greater knowledge of the portfolio allows them to see value. This in itself is a problem though. I know this comment won't be appreciated by some, but the sooner they employ fair value accounting the better. Then we can more fairly evaluate value rather than the BOD take advantage of information gaps.

[jackson83] 14/12/2022 17:26

buy now and sell next year at 130p ... double your money lol

[greenknight1] 14/12/2022 15:27

The general consensus is called the market. The market can often value incorrectly and this is where we as individual investors should take advantage.

[jackson83] 14/12/2022 14:18

opportunity to short it

[big_cat] 14/12/2022 14:03

Silence is worrying. What is the general consensus on the company?

[jackson83] 14/12/2022 13:51

unloved stock as we hit a new 52wk low price today as the management continue radio silence ...

[jackson83] 14/12/2022 11:28

WE WERE 75p only a few weeks ago ..
top up in the 50p's soon

[makinbuks] 13/12/2022 16:56

Theres an ominous silence. In the last couple of years the Aussie CEO has been beating the drum loudly but it seems to have gone quiet of late

[jackson83] 13/12/2022 16:49

are we expecting bad news ?

[jackson83] 12/12/2022 16:46

I will add more at 40p

[jackson83] 09/12/2022 16:48

he also said billion pound company ... we live in hope ... more director buys needed

[jackson83] 09/12/2022 16:33

funky finance mateus was saying in a few years we be worth 800p

[greenknight1] 09/12/2022 11:52

Some are saying this is 100% undervalued.