Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[waterfall city] 05/9/2022 13:15

Unless your invested in something like a utility everything drops in this type of market, even though the actual business does well in this environment with the increased insolvencies/litigation.

[greenknight1] 02/9/2022 20:00

Having been in here for a long time and recently sold out, I'd rather wait until the company prove themselves. Yes I'll miss the potential 20-30% spike if it happens but I'll still enjoy the ride up without the death by 1000 cuts at the moment.

[robsy2] 02/9/2022 08:46

BBAB - i like your sell them to me comment. I am now back to breakeven on this having bought all the way up and some of the way down. I’ve added more this morning. The potential as some points out is significant.

[someuwin] 02/9/2022 08:39

Just catching up with the state of play here.

I was surprised there was very little commentary on the 16/May/22 RNS saying that LIT are funding a class action against Google's Deepmind for misuse of private health data.

This action is on behalf of 1.6m individuals.

If they win (and as we know LIT don't take on cases unless they're very sure they can win) and even if each claimant is awarded a token £1,000 compensation, that would be a £1.6bn win. (Peanuts for Google who are sitting on $200bn cash). 25% would be £400m to LIT.

[bigbadaussiebear] 01/9/2022 11:03

They got 25% of a $30m settlement...

What happens when they end up getting 25% of a $300m win/settlement...

Totally assymetric investment here... Buying it at almost book value at cost

[adae] 01/9/2022 10:55

It's classic ADVFN - when it's going up, everyone's a fan, everyone's buying, everyone's crowing about how clever and right they are.

When it falls, they all claim to have sold/be selling - or at least, go very quiet.

Buy low, sell high - isn't complicated. Good luck @bigbad.

[bigbadaussiebear] 01/9/2022 10:42

Suncorp class action settlement... Book value at cost probably close to $120m aud when considering this new win.

Trading at $145m market cap...

Keep selling to me

[bigbadaussiebear] 01/9/2022 10:41

Funding commission. The Plaintiff will seek Court approval of a payment of approximately $8,250,000 to LCM (representing approximately 25% of the Resolution Sum), as remuneration to LCM for funding of the class action and bearing most of the financial risks associated with the litigation. The amount of remuneration that the Court considers fair and reasonable in all the circumstances will be deducted from the amounts otherwise payable to Group Members regardless of whether any individual Group Member signed the funding agreement. The kind of order that will be sought in this case is sometimes called a common fund order.

[makinbuks] 24/8/2022 08:32

Has this got caught up in the barristers strike dispute? Shouldn't affect civil actions

[dadbod] 23/8/2022 22:59

Hammer reversal

[tomps2] 23/8/2022 13:45

Litigation Capital Management (LIT) FY22 results webinar

Tuesday, 20 September, 11:00am

Patrick Moloney, CEO and Mary Gangemi, CFO will present FY22 results followed by Q&A.

Register here: bit.ly/LCM_FY22_Results

[bigbaggy] 16/8/2022 07:53

Interesting and insightful recent comments here. Thank you johnwig,74tom, greenknight and others.

[johnwig] 14/8/2022 13:12

As ever,74tom, an excellent overview of where this share stands.

BTW, I happen to know a lawyer who runs a large provincial law-firm, and is currently setting up a fund for a 'freestanding' litigation finance business. Contrary to my understanding he told me firmly that there has been no real Covid related delay in those courts relevant to these businesses because there is so little physical contact. In fact he believed that matters were speeding up! The real delay is in such areas as the criminal courts which had huge back-ups.

Of course this is a two-edged sword as far as LIT is concerned. Why, then, is there such a delay in financial resolutions?

Of course all this relates to the UK and things may be different elsewhere.

[74tom] 14/8/2022 09:31

It’s a conundrum right now…

- technically very weak and in a new downtrend

- very little buying interest bar the chairman

- Interest rate rises making debt financing more expensive (how do they repay this debt + continue to invest into big new cases?)

- Debt covenants could become an issue if settlements don’t arrive quickly or they lose a big case

- The last update was bereft of the usual detail & felt very flat. Is running the London office + all his old duties stretching Patrick too thin?

- Longer, bigger & more complex cases increase risk and will test enforcement skills - do they have the right personnel for this?

Vs.

- backlog of cases to settle should mean an avalanche of cash?

- Chairman appears very happy to put his hand in his pocket to support the share price

- they’ve been appointed on some very high profile cases such as KPMG where a win could change the dynamic & profile. How long will it take to get to trial though?

At the moment the risk reward doesn’t feel adequate to me. They need a flurry of settlements to push the share price up and then ideally raise growth capital to pay down the expensive debt.

Time will tell!

[greenknight1] 13/8/2022 19:12

I too have sold down my holding (held for a number of years). I will watch closely for a re-entry if things hot up. The chart does look pretty awful. They still have not announced a second close of the new fund also which concerns me. This was supposed to be completed in the early summer. Good luck to holders and will join you again one day perhaps.

[williamcooper104] 13/8/2022 15:36

It's missed the risk rally BURs recent results were pretty underwhelming

[adamb1978] 13/8/2022 14:27

Been mulling over this since the last market update (aka trading statement) and decided to exit last week

Combination of reasons:
- recent trading statement for the year just finished implies EPS might only be around 4p rather than the figures in the market. Not sure how the market will react to that when the figures are out

- its still not clear to me that the market values this on a sensible basis or even on a forward looking basis, perhaps because of the lumpiness of their figures. We're also probably going to need another year to get some figures which get multiples down below long-term ranges and regardless of whether you look at P/B (which I feel is the right way) or PE

- I'm not a chartist but the price cutting down under the 200 dma and also the 50dma cutting down under the 200 dma I believe aren't positive signs...and I've lost enough money with charts with similar trends to that in order for me to take that seriously

Therefore I don't see this materially moving forwards for a good while, but would be happy to buy back in if the prices comes off materially. I bought 2 years ago in 50s so made a bit of money, and feel there is more potential here over the mid-term...but we could see weakness on a 6-12 month basis

All the best for holders

Adam

[pigeonfeeder] 03/8/2022 11:44

Stockopedia is showing 2022 Net profit of $AU 24.2m and EPS 20.3c.

For 2023 the forecast is $39.7m profit and EPS of 33c.

[waterfall city] 02/8/2022 12:41

From what I can see Cannacord had revenue of AS 100 and 137 and EPS of 11 and 18 for 2122 and 2223 but that was based on 4 final hearing cases completing in 2122, i think the next 2/3 years will be key for their growth plans.

[adamb1978] 31/7/2022 10:19

Would anyone be kind enough to share market forecasts using whatever database people have access to?

From what I can see on Fastset, forecasts are for revenue of 39.7m in the year just finished (I assumed A$, though we know that that figure is now low) and EPS of 11.5p. That EPS figure looks way off however interested what others see or any actual broker forecasts. FOr FY23 Factset says revenue of 50m and EPS of 18.8p.
Thanks

Adam

[nchanning] 26/7/2022 16:25

I remember management saying in a interview once that they would RNS significant wins/ losses , I wonder why they rarely do

[johnwig] 25/7/2022 08:59

Many thanks, L2B. You are the best monitor of the actual cash-flow wins! Keep on with the good work, please....

[robsy2] 25/7/2022 07:19

L2B Good news and thanks for sharing.i’ve bought a few more this morning. The share price looks unduly hammered because of delays on settlements that are coming through.