Liontrust Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[dealy] 24/7/2023 08:25

Liontrust should improve the terms for GAM shareholders. otherwise, they will miss out on the huge synergies that acquiring GAM will bring.

[trident5] 18/7/2023 12:25

I see that some GAM shareholders are fighting back - offering a higher price to buy 17.5% of the shares to give themselves a 27% shareholding. Another shareholder with 6.5% says he will reject L's offer. So that jeopardises L's ability to get 2/3 backing.

Market seems to like it though.

(Didn't realise that GAM is accruing CHF2 billion in tax losses - that's some achievement).

[pinemartin9] 18/7/2023 11:29

Value trap currently paying a handsome dividend though.

[superstardj] 18/7/2023 07:14

https://www.finews.com/news/english-news/58365-investor-group-offers-to-buy-gam-shares-at-a-premium

[sandeep67] 17/7/2023 22:03

think you forgot the billions on furlough, bounce back loan etc and to think Labour wanted longer lockdowns and longer furlough.

[spectoacc] 17/7/2023 11:40

Capital controls would be :)

But fair point. The problem is, usually Labour start from a decent Tory-economy, then mess it up.

This time, as you say, the Tories have royally shafted it (on debt total alone) & now Labour have to search for all the extra money to cover their spending (VAT on school fees won't do it), or else take the 100% of GDP national debt to new levels.

In the meantime - money will continue to leave the market to cover everyday spending, higher mortgage bills, higher rents, and ultimately possibly from pension contributions being cut back.

[chubby chandler] 17/7/2023 11:36

None of that sounds as bad as the list of damage inflicted by the tories!

[spectoacc] 17/7/2023 08:48

Labour have a habit of surprising on the downside. Rent controls, wealth taxes, capital controls? They're talking a good game but who knows.

Agree re cycles - but I'd fear LIO is a long way from the bottom of theirs. There's a major tide to swim against when money continually leaves the market.

The (Tory) pension proposals may help.

[chubby chandler] 17/7/2023 08:46

These things always go in cycles. Liontrust were the mutt's nuts two years ago when their funds were topping the tables, now they're doing less well so they're naturally under pressure....until the cycle turns round again.

As for a Labour government, its hard to think how any political party could do worse than the Tories have over the 7 years since Boris Johnson sacrificed the country to Brexit on the altar of his political ambitions (With Cameron also to blame for giving the sociopath the opportunity).

Brexit disaster, unrestrained Covid giveaways, Truss debacle, rampant inflation, whole generations priced out of the housing market, how could anyone possibly do worse than that?!

[spectoacc] 17/7/2023 07:08

"£793m withdrawn from UK retail funds and £521m pulled from “alternative” funds. Losses on investments reduced assets under management by a further £294m in the... quarter"

"...Shrugged that off as a function of the present risk-averse market environment"


I'd respectfully point out to management that the "..Risk-averse.. environment" is going to get worse before it gets better. Interest rates haven't stopped rising, no cuts for the foreseeable, consumer squeeze at best halfway through - fixed rate mortgages ending at the rate of 100k/month, fiscal squeeze kicking in this year and next.

Followed by a likely Labour govnt.

Suspect LIO well aware of this really, hence the eagerness to get GAM's AUM added to their books.

[masurenguy] 17/7/2023 00:44

Liontrust is sent reeling by more customer exits

Further customer defections and efforts to get the complex, contested acquisition of a rival over the line have dealt a heavy blow to Liontrust Asset Management. Shares in the fund manager fell to a 4 year low on Friday after it disclosed it had been hit by net outflows of £1.6bn in the June quarter. The FTSE 250 group shrugged that off as a function of the present risk-averse market environment, while separately urging shareholders of GAM, the target of its takeover bid, to accept its all-stock offer. “The clock is now at one minute to midnight for the future of GAM,” John Ions, 57, the Liontrust CEO, said in a letter. Liontrust’s offer was the only one on the table. GAM’s own auditors warned it might not be able to survive without external funding, he said, adding that Liontrust’s “business is in robust health despite the current market environment”. Liontrust’s shares fell by 9.7%, or 69p, to 640p.

The Liontrust offer is opposed by an investor group called NewGAMe that accounts for 9.5% of GAM and says Liontrust is one of the worst-performing fund managers in the sector at the moment. The Zurich-based GAM, which operates in 14 countries, has been struggling with client defections since being caught up in the collapse of Greensill Capital. Liontrust has faced headwinds, too, after a period of poor performance. The latest client losses have reduced its assets under management to £29bn as of July 12. However, it received a boost this week when Silchester International, a leading GAM shareholder, said it would accept the Liontrust bid in respect of its 17.3% GAM stake. If they accept the offer, GAM shareholders will own up to 14.5% of the enlarged Liontrust group. Deadline for acceptances is July 25. Liontrust’s net outflows in the quarter included £793m withdrawn from UK retail funds and £521m pulled from “alternative” funds. Losses on investments reduced assets under management by a further £294m in the quarter.



No position but on my watchlist.

[chubby chandler] 14/7/2023 11:19

Correct dealy these market doldrums create an opportunity - arguably as good as we had back in March 2020!

[dealy] 14/7/2023 11:11

lots of small caps hit new multi year lows recently. If funds have redemptions or asset allocation moves away from small caps (as was the case from March to June this year), then shares are weak.

[chubby chandler] 14/7/2023 10:55

The covid lows for most companies - including LIO - came in March 2020 when panic was at its maximum and money was leaving the market, not going in.

So for me it makes little sense that LIO is 25% lower now than at that time of maximum panic. And to be fair, some panic was justified then because no-one had a clue how severe and how long the pandemic was going to be.

Now there is no need to panic because we are simply going through an economic cycle that has been seen countless times before. Inflation goes up, then it goes down. Market overreacting as it usually does, thanks in no small part to the doomsayers in the media.

Meanwhile Liontrust loses 75% of its value of 2 years ago. Bonkers.

[spectoacc] 14/7/2023 08:33

Agree the market will move well ahead of the upturn. But not at all inexplicable that LIO now lower than Covid. Covid saw money pour into the market, as people were stuck at home not spending.

UK inflation will fall - just not far enough - and high interest rates/fiscal drag are baked in (at least the next 2 years, then see what Labour come up with).

[chubby chandler] 14/7/2023 08:28

Once we start getting news of UK inflation coming down, the bear market will quickly turn to a bull.

Great time to be buying shares like LIO which, inexplicably, are sitting well below their covid lows.

The market always reacts as if the current situation will continue forever and ,consequently, will always overshoot (in either direction). Buy at the lows now and reap the rewards later.

[spectoacc] 14/7/2023 08:22

Well N91 have dropped £5bn a qtr for 3 consecutive qtrs - I make that 6 years to zero ;)

At some point, money starts going back in, but difficult to see that point anywhere near - fiscal drag, end of ZIRP, fixed rate mortgages ending, wage rises not keeping up with inflation.

[r2oo] 14/7/2023 08:19

As Warren says, be greedy when others are fearful. With a forward pe of around 10 this is a buying opportunity for sure and a great 10yr hold IMO.

[r2oo] 14/7/2023 08:12

There seems to be net outflows for across the board for financials. Ashmore reported this morning net outflows of 1.8 b.

[spectoacc] 14/7/2023 07:51

N91 reported this morning too, usefully stating past 3 AUM's:

"Ninety One today confirms its assets under management at 30 June 2023 of £124.8 billion (30 June 2022: £134.9 billion; 31 March 2023: £129.3 billion)."


Not looked how much of LIO/N91 is performance & how much is money leaving the market, but agree it looks set to continue.

Some of that is in the price already of course.

[tongostl] 14/7/2023 07:26

£2B outflows! Ouch!

People are obviously tapping into savings due to the current economic climate. Can't see it getting better any time soon.