Liontrust Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[luckymouse] 23/5/2023 03:52

There was a historical study done on M&A: If the buyers share price initially dropped upon deal completion, if boded badly for the mergers success, & if the share price rose it boded well - statistically. That was likely biased in America where mkt performance is notably superior & liquidity is x10, so more telling. In the UK I doubt it works as well as the sheer weight of volume doesn't exist.
That said the share price does indicate either the deal, the co, the AMgt sector, or the UK mkt itself isn't healthy - or some combination.
Since Nov21 when the fed started the fastest raise in living memory, plus the commencement of Bashonomics (negative fed speak), breadth has been almost entirely negative. These factors have predominantly resulted in only the very largest & strongest stocks rising from the Oct 22 low, and beyond that, esp in the Smalls space, the crowd has been successfully scared away - and this of course has an impact on Asset mgrs..
Firstly in terms of dwindling remittances, plus the cost of living, Brexit & unstable geopolitics all driving up redemptions (raising cash & necessity). Add the fact that constant -ve breadth also exposes 90% of PMs to be merely thematic trackers - ie they cannot outperform, in such an environment their fund/IT charts will look generally like a chop fest or simply decline. Negative breadth essentially is their undoing.
There is 9% yld on offer, but I doubt the share price will rise much until the crowd return eg when the fed cease special operations. The BOE lag by 6m too - so don't hold your breath. The merger may in part be a strategy to mitigate some the above hostile environment ie a band aid & expensive way to bolster AUM, hence the reaction

[dealy] 19/5/2023 12:18

I think it just went down with hundreds of other small caps in the wake of the US Regional banking crisis

[trident5] 19/5/2023 10:57

Interesting that the slide from £12 to £8 has knocked £240m off Liontrust's valuation, seemingly largely based on the execution risk of a £100m takeover.

[stevenlondon3] 19/5/2023 10:09

If it was such gift I don't think the share price would have reacted so negatively. There is potential but the market has concerns that Liontrust has the skill to turn GAM around. Along hot summer ahead.

[r2oo] 18/5/2023 08:05

Just goes to show what a gift this acquisition would be if it comes off!

[r2oo] 18/5/2023 08:04

The investor group comprised of NewGAMe and Bruellan - which is opposed to Liontrust's takeover of Swiss fund group GAM - said on Tuesday that it plans to increase its stake in GAM from 8.4% to above 10%.The group said in a statement that it has notified the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) that it intends "to go above the threshold of 10% of the voting rights in GAM".Earlier this month, the investor group said Liontrust's £96m takeover offer undervalues GAM and "does not reflect the significant upside that a successful turnaround could generate for GAM's current shareholders"."In addition, the fact that Liontrust only offers its own shares, and is not making any cash offer, implies that GAM shareholders will be subject to the volatility of Liontrust shares without any firm price for a business that has significant intrinsic value," it said.The investor group also said the deal proposed by Liontrust was subject to "significant execution contingencies", since the risk of an unsuccessful exit of GAM's fund management services business in Luxembourg and Switzerland - "on which almost no information is being provided" - is being shifted to GAM shareholders."The investor group is therefore contemplating not to accept Liontrust's offer under the current terms," it said.

[dealy] 05/5/2023 08:09

This drops on the prospect of a gift acquisition deal and rises on the prospect of that gift deal being rejected. Talk about lack of ambition by investors

[topvest] 04/5/2023 13:29

A very interesting and transformational deal either to the upside (if it works) or to the downside (if its doesn't). The deal price is only 0.5% of AUM which is very cheap. This reflects the fact that GAM are in deep financial distress. If the best GAM fund managers stay and they can reduce costs then it will be a truly fantastic deal. The market probably doesn't like the uncertainty associated with the considerable execution risks. I may top-up my Liontrust holding, but will ponder the deal further.

[r2oo] 04/5/2023 11:49

This is still very cheap, just may well get a bit cheaper.I'm already heavily invested here but I have my finger on the trigger ready to load up more.

[r2oo] 04/5/2023 11:47

Won't matter too much spawny, if you're a long term investor.

[spawny100] 04/5/2023 10:12

Darn it I bought a few early doors here. Too early it seems!

[r2oo] 04/5/2023 08:10

Bit of support here at 820p then it's back down to the 52 week low of 700p...

[r2oo] 04/5/2023 08:08

Hopefully the market will hate it so I can back up the truck. Been waiting for an entry point to top up this holding.

[dealy] 04/5/2023 06:57

it's an absolute steal. GAM capitulated here. Because it's an all share deal the board of GAM probably think Liontrust shares will benefit hugely from this combination

[tongostl] 04/5/2023 06:41

Let's see what the market thinks. But this looks like a bargain to me.

[trident5] 03/5/2023 15:31

Do their funds perform?

[dealy] 03/5/2023 15:07

GAM made one minor error about 5 years ago and has been punished ruthlessly by the press and investors ever since. The company is currently valued below net cash and has made great progress in reducing costs over the last 3 years. There are substantial cost and market synergies to be gained from a merger. I fully expect Liontrust to step up and size this once in a decade opportunity

[2wild] 26/4/2023 20:36

Brought a few with an initial purchase at 825p. If they maintain the dividend, I will be happy.

[aishah] 21/4/2023 06:17

When there's blood on the streets...

[masurenguy] 21/4/2023 06:07

Peel Hunt: Liontrust shares to stall after GAM bid

Peel Hunt expects the investment case for Liontrust Asset Management (LIO) to pause until there is clarity on its potential offer for GAM Holding. Analyst Robert Sage retained his ‘hold’ recommendation and reduced the target price from £10.22 to 915p on the stock, which fell 3.4%, or 29.5p, to 841p yesterday. The asset manager reported a 3.6% fall in assets under management in the first three months of the year to £31.4bn, which was expected. Sage said performance fees ‘surprised positively’ at more than £17m for full-year 2023 and ‘we now expect structurally higher levels in future years.’ ‘Until there is greater clarity around the possible offer for GAM, we expect the investment case for Liontrust to stall,’ he said. ‘There is significant upside potential for the shares when positive flows resume given the organic growth opportunities.’

[pugugly] 20/4/2023 09:01

GAM: An absolute disaster zone but might be good value if bought cheaply enough to cover all the revealed problems PLUS very significant extra discount for all the rotting apples subsequently discovered.

Position similar to Mguy.

[masurenguy] 20/4/2023 00:15

Liontrust clients take fright at funds’ poor performance

Outflows from funds of Liontrust Asset Management have accelerated, with clients withdrawing a net £2 bn from the business between January and March. The disclosure came a day after Liontrust had rattled some investors by confirming that it was in talks about a possible takeover of GAM, the troubled Swiss asset manager, and less than a month after two non-executive directors stepped down amid a boardroom dispute. Shares in the FTSE 250 group dropped by 64½p, or 6.9%, to 870p yesterday as the scale of withdrawals shook investors, who had sent the stock down by 2.9% a day earlier amid nervousness about the possible bid for GAM. The latest outflows, during what was the fund manager’s 4th quarter, took net withdrawals for the year to £4.8bn. This, combined with £2.4bn lost to adverse market movements, pushed the total assets managed by Liontrust down to £31.4bn at the end of March, from £33.5bn a year earlier. The withdrawals and the group’s negative investment performance more than offset the £5.1bn of assets brought in by its £41m purchase of Majedie last April.

COMPLETE ARTICLE:

No position but on my watchlist.

[r2oo] 19/4/2023 20:48

Yep dips indeed, what happens to the so over a 12 to 18 month period is of no worry when you're investing with a 20yr + timeframe as I am.It is of course concerning if you are a trader.

[spawny100] 19/4/2023 12:56

Dips? It's been going down pretty much continually from £13 end of Jan and it was £25 only 18 months ago.