Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 23/5/2023 14:24

IBM recent statement on automation replacing a large slice of their non customer
facing roles caught my attention.

[spectoacc] 23/5/2023 14:19

Offices just seem so Retail - "Yes, the internet is here, but people will still want to go to the High St to try things on". Hmmm.

But agree Grade A really ought to hold up - or does it stay let, only at lower rates? ie the differential with grades below gets maintained.

Unconvinced by ChatGPT but it only needs to affect the edges, or give an excuse (BT-style) for job cuts I guess.

Digressing OT. At least LTI fans can say there's no REITs etc, but are there holdings that might be disrupted? RELX looks the most possible.

[essentialinvestor] 23/5/2023 14:06

Spec, appreciate the view.

I know you have been very bearish on REITS and fair to say that's now been
more than validated. Even niche areas like Grade A London office, which I thought
looked reasonably safe (longer term) following large share price falls, may now be in the firing line with AI related job losses on the way and tech sector job cuts.

[spectoacc] 23/5/2023 14:01

@EI - neutral on HL now, just because they ought to be making out like bandits with where interest rates are. Like banks, it's free money for them. Unlike banks, they shouldn't have the political or loss provisions trouble.

LTI I'd buy on a large enough discount - less anti them than I've been in the past.

With the way the 10-year is going, there's trouble ahead that might well produce some entry points on a host of things soon.

REITs look a huge value trap atm, despite their notional cheapness.

I've predicted 7 of the last 2 downturns.

[essentialinvestor] 23/5/2023 13:51

hp on the SHA board make a cracking bearish call on HL about 18 months ago.

Spec, I know you also had some doubts, well perhaps more than some doubts
on the valuation ;.

[mozy123] 23/5/2023 13:50

Its all very strange from Emma Wall and HL.

Then again, when HL run black only internships, and have now started using automated phone services, its probably about time the ship had new leadership. What do they say about good companies run by idiots?

Even Peter Hargreaves is getting a little annoyed of late.

[spectoacc] 23/5/2023 13:42

None the wiser after reading the FT article. Granted, the concern might be valid (LTI IS Nick Train), but can't see it represents anything new.

An attempt by HL to get clients paying fees on fund holdings rather than the much smaller dealing charges on ITs?

But why do this to one of their few cheerleaders? Yes, I'd question Train's judgement - he loves HL!

[flyer61] 22/5/2023 22:30

If you head over to the Lemon fool there is a thread running on this very subject.

[topvest] 22/5/2023 20:10

Agreed - seems a stupid story to me. Lindsell Train run a concentrated portfolio of about 15 stocks. If anything they should dump the few smaller holdings and concentrate further, to fully align with their style. I suspect the person at HL that caused this story has now effectively terminated his career at HL...whilst its fine having an independent view, it is not very sensible to upset your no. 2 largest shareholder on a very judgemental point!

[steve3sandal] 22/5/2023 18:46

Opportunity! Nothing like Woodford. Nothing like SMT. HL ticking a box. The Board has already responded to say its bunkum. Buying quality companies and holding seems like a reasonable strategy.

[essentialinvestor] 22/5/2023 17:59

Surprised no comments here on the FT story.

[flyer61] 16/5/2023 06:11

My total figure guesstimate for Septs payout is £56.41 …..

[flyer61] 16/5/2023 06:04

S3s, on the dividend I’m fully expecting an increase on last year. For the simple reason that LTI now has a record to maintain of annual increases. Looks good to their city mockers and scribes. Combined that Mr Lindsell appears to have been buying regularly for family trusts (grand kids?) and throw 8n the reserves and I’d say it’s nailed on certainty. I’m going for a total payout of 56 quid.

Still think they are reasonable buying at these levels. Try and pick them up on market down days.

Has an6body had any luck with leaving a low ish bid on and it being met?

[steve3sandal] 15/5/2023 19:27

Flyer6115 May '23 - 19:10 - 615 of 615
0 0 0
Don’t forget LT Ltd I think, should now have the thick end of a hundred million of cash on the books.

Indeed. And the Net Profit after 25% corporation tax isn’t £36m either.

[flyer61] 15/5/2023 19:10

Don’t forget LT Ltd I think, should now have the thick end of a hundred million of cash on the books.

[steve3sandal] 15/5/2023 19:05

And, anecdotally regarding their holdings, not weighted here, I’ve got 1Yr share price changes largely favourable. FGT +16%, Heineken +25%, Laurent Perrier +52%, LSE +16%, Mondelez +28%, Relx +9%, Unilever +23%. AG Barr and Nintendo -2%, Diageo -3%, and the current dog PayPal -23%. Source FT.

[steve3sandal] 15/5/2023 18:53

Whilst we wait for LT Jan 23 Accounts, and wait for LTI Mar 23 Accounts, which will be a while yet I’ve pasted the last 3 months directors valuations. Model 12m Net Profit and FUM is at least creeping up. I think this augurs well for another dividend of 5% in due course. Latest NAV £1088 should underpin recent buys.

As at 28 February 2023, LTL shares were valued at £13,154.54 per share, a decrease of 0.9% from the valuation of £13,270.62 per share as at the previous monthly valuation on 31 January 2023. LTL’s valuation is calculated with reference to a ratio of annualised notional net profits of £35.4m to Funds Under Management at LTL of £18.4 billion resulting in a percentage of funds under management of 1.90%.

As at 31 March 2023, LTL shares were valued at £13,212.40 per share, an increase of 0.4% from the valuation of £13,154.54 per share as at the previous monthly valuation on 28 February 2023. LTL’s valuation is calculated with reference to a ratio of annualised notional net profits of £35.6m to Funds Under Management at LTL of £18.5 billion resulting in a percentage of funds under management of 1.90%.

As at 30 April 2023, LTL shares were valued at £13,507.32 per share, an increase of 2.2% from the valuation of £13,212.40 per share as at the previous monthly valuation on 31 March 2023. LTL’s valuation is calculated with reference to a ratio of annualised notional net profits of £36.1m to Funds Under Management at LTL of £18.9 billion resulting in a percentage of funds under management of 1.90%.

[steve3sandal] 11/5/2023 16:17

….have increased holding, must be 3rd largest shareholder after Nick & Michael.

Gulp.

[giltedge1] 11/5/2023 10:57

Rising again hopefully rise in FUM this month have increased holding, must be 3rd largest shareholder after Nick & Michael.

[essentialinvestor] 05/5/2023 00:13

Spec, thanks. Way above my pay grade needless to say

[spectoacc] 04/5/2023 18:36

REL I think was (as was PSON the same day), no idea EXPN.

Personally don't see the appeal of ChatGPT/AI, not yet anyway.

[essentialinvestor] 04/5/2023 17:12

Are recent falls in REL and EXPN indicative of the market beginning an attempt to factor in rapid advances in AI to their respective longer term business models?.

Might be unrelated, just a thought.

[mozy123] 28/4/2023 10:53

Yes that what i meant sorry.

[flyer61] 28/4/2023 10:22

Its not LTI with the cash but the LT fund management business. When it declares a dividend we will get a clearer picture of what LTI will be able to do.

I'm expecting a 5% rise in the divi!

[mozy123] 28/4/2023 09:48

LTI could maintain the divi - I think they have £93m cash last time I looked. As always they will be conservative.