Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 09/2/2022 07:57

Occurred to me, seeing PZC's bog-standard "paddling against the current" results this morning, that Train didn't mention it at all, in either article. A few years ago it was his "new purchase" and ramped all over the place.

[spectoacc] 07/2/2022 07:57

Train also gets a full page in the same week's MoneyWeek, with an emphasis on DGE (unmentioned in previous article), FEVR, & LSEG.

If he's been "continually adding to" FEVR and LSEG, who are the sellers?

Just looking at FGT top holdings:

DGE
RELX
LSEG
ULVR
Mondelez
SDR
BRBY
SGE
HL
Remy

Impressively concentrated - Top 10 approx 70%, with DGE/RELX/LSEG getting on for a third of the entire fund by themselves.

But where's FEVR in FGT?

[essentialinvestor] 04/2/2022 17:15

I have significant EM exposure atm as thought they were due some catch up,
particularly with so much looking either fully or fairly valued - the oil
price is denting that rational but sticking with it.

[rambutan2] 04/2/2022 17:07

Great, here it is:

[roguetraderuk] 04/2/2022 16:31

you can listen to the interview on the IC youtube page.

[spectoacc] 04/2/2022 16:03

Amusing 2-pager in today's IC on Train. The usual semi-advertorial interview/15 yr old photo, with the same old same old stocks & reasoning (EXPN, BRBY, FEVR, RELX, SDR, HL.).

But the big news (to me) is completely selling out of PSON, except in the Global fund, mainly to meet redemptions. About 5 years too late, and only done as forced, but shows he can sell a stock after all.

Interesting to read how he's holding ULVR and SGE, despite Terry Smith having reversed on SGE and now reversing on ULVR. If I was putting my money into someone else, it'd go in Smith over Train.


"Quite a lot" of the DMGT cash gone into adding to EXPN & FEVR.

Describes Cazoo as "..A fascinating British company doing something disruptive and potentially very value-creating in the used car market in the UK". I'd describe it as a comedy bubble at a massively inflated valuation. Where's the profits? S/p was $10, now under $4, yet still valued at $3bn from a standing start, and making (as far as I know) no money whatsoever. Used cars are not traditionally a big money spinner, the PE-backed Cinch a more likely winner IMO, with BCA behind them.

Still - does imply Train might not be as keen to sell out of Cazoo as we all presume.


"..We're not exposed to more overtly cyclical businesses [like] ...oil comapnies".

Nick, you really, really should be.


Gives SN. a mention as a co he's presumably looking at, and the usual ramps for SDR and HL.

Article is worth a read if you're fan or cynic, but keep the salt close by.

[rambutan2] 04/2/2022 16:00

Note the note:

It is announced that the un-audited Net Asset Value (inclusive of accumulated
income) of The Lindsell Train Investment Trust plc, which is managed by
Lindsell Train Limited, at the close of business on the below date was as
follows:

31 January 2022 £1,148.1276 per Ordinary share.

Please Note: The above NAV figure includes a revised valuation for LTIT's
holding of 6,450 shares in Lindsell Train Limited ("LTL"). As at 31 January
2022, these shares were valued at £15,925.17 per share, a decrease of 6.1% from
the valuation of £16,965.44 per share as at the previous valuation on 31
December 2021. Funds under management at LTL at 31 January 2022 stood at £21.2
billion.

[giltedge1] 04/2/2022 13:02

Managed to make a small gain in January, portfolio of LTI stable except Paypal mentioned, below. Paypal, prodigiously profitable & cash on Balance Sheet but admittedly may not return, to previous lofty heights. I am keeping the faith in LTI, High ROC, Capital Light, Strong Brands & Strong Cash Flow model.

[giltedge1] 04/2/2022 13:01

Managed to make a small gain in January, portfolio of LTI stable except Paypal mentioned, below. Paypal, prodigiously profitable & cash on Balance Sheet but admittedly may not return, to previous lofty heights. I am keeping the faith in LTI, High ROC, Capital Light, Strong Brands & Strong Cash Flow model.

[gateside] 04/2/2022 08:26

I assume this is struggling due to its holding in PayPal now.So glad I sold this last autumn for break even. Their top holdings seem so uninspiring.

[giltedge1] 19/1/2022 14:04

LTI portfolio doing well today, PSON, BURB, ULVR, LSE, all up, some significantly bought more at £ 12, good long term buy.
I think this trust will do well this year as Tech funds will be reallocated.

[essentialinvestor] 18/1/2022 17:45

Neil's UK holiday home looked stunning, believe it was one the market a while back.


I hold a small amount of Unilever unfortunately.

[essentialinvestor] 18/1/2022 16:09

ULVR now off by over 10% in 2 trading days.

[spectoacc] 18/1/2022 16:05

On a more LTI-related note - wondering at what point ULVR is a buy. Presumably when they up the GSK consumer bid, increasing the cash element.

[spectoacc] 18/1/2022 15:56

Wow yes.

""I would suggest that a healthy balance between arrogance and humility is helpful," he says.
......

"He's arguably the best fund manager of his generation," says Mark Dampier, research director at Hargreaves Lansdown."


Dampier pensioned off, Woody's arrogance/humility balance turned out to be all arrogance.


And:

"He says his aim is to deliver "high single-digit" returns every year, averaged out over three to five years."


Start: £1 (and raised more above £1).

Now, 7.5 years later: 33p (or in unrealisable NAV terms - about 40p, after the RUTH revaluation next qtr).

High negative single digit.

At least Train definitely isn't a Woodford - Train could never change styles ;)

[essentialinvestor] 18/1/2022 15:50

spec - what a difference a few years make..




They were half right, tag on ..for himself.. and bang on the money.

[spectoacc] 18/1/2022 15:14

Lol just thought to check the "5 years" with a quick search for first post on this thread:



"SpectoAcc - 22 Aug 2016 - 10:05:55 - 11 of 442 Lindsell Train Investment Trust plc - LTI
I see they rather sensibly changed the management fee as being calculated on "the lower of NAV or shareprice". Personally I'd like to see that as a law for all ITs. Some with dubious NAVs (eg smallcap funds, valuing holdings at bid that they wouldn't even be able to flog at a 50% discount) can end up getting a management fee on twice the shareprice.

But - isn't the LTI premium now out of control? I'm not a fan of "gurus", be it Anthony Bolton, Neil Woodford (small pharma fiascos) or Nick Train, who like Terry Smith has been brilliantly right for owning the bond proxy "brand" cos, but won't necessarily continue to be brilliantly right.

According to HL the premium is 57%; I fail to see how a 33% holding in two-man band Lindsell Train can justify that. Nor can holding a handful of stocks I could easily buy myself, that seem as likely to underperform from here as outperform - DGE, ULVR, LSE, BAG, Nintendo, RELX, Heineken, Mondelez."



Been flat wrong on Terry Smith, & Train's had a good innings. But not a bad 2016 call on Mr Woodford :)

[spectoacc] 18/1/2022 15:12

No.

Think I've been consistent on that for a good 5 years :)

What works on the way up - outperformance, attracting AUM, ever-increasing L-T valuation - works in reverse on the way down (& we've had about a year of down, relatively).

At that point you have to think Mr Lindsell & Mr Train aren't going to be around forever, that their style (bond proxy, during a generation of falling interest rates) may have gone out of favour, and that the 47% of NAV in L-T may not just be fairly valued, but start to shrink - as well as never be realised.

Ergo, a discount seems warranted.

But I don't hold, and not short - repeatedly tried in the c.80% premium days, but it was completely unborrowable.

[essentialinvestor] 18/1/2022 15:09

Unilever may now dent their funds relative performance which is very unhelpful
to getting new money in the door.

Should LTI be trading at a NAV premium?.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2022 11:13

GSK Consumer Products building a presidential like new HQ less than 2 miles
from me in Weybridge. They have been situated in the area for nearly 40 years,
may be longer, at an existing site off St Georges Av Weybridge - it may have
been a SKB site until the merger. That was around the top of the tech bubble, from memory.

Floods of liquidity back then, as now, so interesting to view the Unilever move perhaps in that context.

This proposed deal looks dead in the water though.

[spectoacc] 17/1/2022 10:37

Ah - apologies, thought DMGT had been held in LTI too.

The 3.7% in ULVR still pretty large considering c.47% of NAV is L-T - hence ULVR 5th biggest equity position (not inc the LT North American fund).

[steve3sandal] 17/1/2022 10:34

I don't mean to be a clever clogs but LT had no direct holding in DMGT or Cazoo. LTI has 1.5% holding in FGT which did have those positions. They've also had 1.5% cash when I last checked. Unilever down to 3.8% in last Accounts as you say it's been a miserable period for holders.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2022 10:25

It's the price and associated level of net debt.

[spectoacc] 17/1/2022 10:17

LTI has got more cash (DMGT) & will get even more when Cazoo lock-up ends.

ULVR very poor performer over eg 5 years (& most periods inbetween).

GSK half doesn't look the worst deal, but agree seems an attempt to mask the cost inflation ULVR can't seem to recover.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2022 09:57

Unilever - Reeks of desperation.
Sold my GSK.