Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[giltedge1] 27/9/2022 12:59

Director was right should have added £980, core holdings all doing well.

[giltedge1] 26/9/2022 17:22

LTI Return 5 years 70%, 14pa latest fact sheet, Director Buying today good to see. Mainly USD earners ULVR,DGE,Mondelez etc hopefully steady ship.

[giltedge1] 23/9/2022 11:52

Hello Specto,
LT investments, have down very well over 5 & 10 years look for yourself on graphs LSE, DGE, ULVR, Mondelez, Paypal ...etc Some 5 & 10 baggers. Preservation of wealth is at the heart of LT philosophy. Nick has doubled my pension pot.
Judging by your property posts (I enjoy reading your posts) your holdings are currently popping?, so a bit of LT would help, have you not heard of correlation? Your portfolio is 100% correlated, ie ebox,srei,ukcm all move in the same direction 100%, so owning more than one does not help makes it worse, down unfortunately. Also I noticed a post on SUPP, surely you do not own these as well, now pennies?.
I am not knocking you as I have made mistakes over the years, but pointing out steady cash earners DGE,RELX,ULVR been around 100 years, is the place to be. I have joined you recently in UKCM, as my penance, bought too soon, I will post soon on that site.
Steve3sandal can you buy Specto a drink, he may need it?.

[spectoacc] 22/9/2022 14:54

I guess those $ earners do support Train's ITs - won't look so pretty when the $ bubble finally pops, but that still looks a while off.

One thing's for sure - when it does pop, Train will still hold all the same stocks :)

[riverman77] 22/9/2022 14:50

Thanks both, I used to follow this a while ago and can see they have changed their valuation methodology. When I last looked at them the aseet manager was growing very rapidly and perhaps deserved a generous rating (hence the premium to NAV) but not so sure now. Will try and look into this in more detail when time allows.

[steve3sandal] 22/9/2022 14:44

LTI used to value LT on an average of an adjusted lower profit to reflect operating costs of 45% v whatever they actually were, and 1.5% AUM averaged over last 12m IIRC. The adjusted profit drove a valuation on a PE of 9 or 11 I forget which. When Covid struck I wrote to them Mar 20 pointing out AUM in the calculation was overstated as Covid trashed AUM. No reply but a few weeks later the directors changed the basis of AUM to reflect current position and of course they restated their methodology again for Mar 22 as GE1 refers.
I’m happy with half a portfolio full of the Companies mentioned and Nintendo currently can’t supply enough of their new game, did I read bestseller, Heineken slowly taking over the beer world…though I don’t drink the stuff myself.
AUM £19.something B from £23.something B a couple of years ago surely reflects some retail redemptions in addition to reduced valuations of portfolio companies in UTs and FGT and not least given they’ve created a US business with 2B (currency?) assets since then. I think HL dropping them caused retail switching.
Travelling so that’s off the top of my head, sorry.

[giltedge1] 22/9/2022 13:19

Hello Riverman, about 1.95%, there is a new sliding scale based on profitability & AUM, see latest annual report. Portfolio holding up better than most, ULVR, DGE, RELX, Mondelez etc, most high USD earners. Looks like topped up too early, should have waited. Old saying don't fight the Fed.

[riverman77] 21/9/2022 16:46

I'd like to know what multiple they use to value the asset manager, but I'd want a pretty big discount to the wider sector given the key man dependency and lack of diversification (effectively a couple of very similar funds). On top of that, recent performance not great and I'd imagine they might be seeing outflows, although not looked into this.

[steve3sandal] 21/9/2022 16:30

I’m waiting on January 22 Accounts being filed for Lindsell Train then I’ll run some scenarios as to what I think that business worth. Yes I know the Directors valuation is X. Meanwhile each company holding seems to be trending better operationally as far as I read them and Nick would argue they are undervalued against future prospects. I’m quite bullish around £1000 and directors NAV on 2/3 year view.

[riverman77] 21/9/2022 16:12

They are on a 4% discount - not especially cheap given 10-15% discounts are pretty standard across the equity sector. Recent performance nothing to write home about, so no reason why it should still command a premium rating.

[giltedge1] 21/9/2022 15:44

These are far too cheap, added more below NAV.

[steve3sandal] 09/9/2022 15:54

Thanks for the insights ge1.

[spectoacc] 09/9/2022 14:42

Yup, he's made himself a quarter of a billion quid, good on him. And rode the bond proxy years very well.

[giltedge1] 09/9/2022 14:35

Hardly a very successful fund manager, created a £ 600 m business from zero in 20 years, I agree with his thinking Strong franchises, & cashflow, low debt. LTI not for you then, pity up 6% today. Forgot to mention board asked to consider a share split to help liquidity.

[spectoacc] 09/9/2022 14:10

HL really ought to be benefitting greatly from rising interest rates - that they're still so weak is a worry, & £6 looks next stop.

FEVR will p/w again IMO, bizarre how Mr Train can't see that one. Then again, he has a track record of falling in love with a share.

Not a fan of gurus, as much as not a fan of Train.

[giltedge1] 09/9/2022 13:48

Went to meeting Alex gave a good presentation on companies & strategy & Nick gave a great talk as usual,very informative. US business growing, about £2 Billion (institutions, not retail). Asked questions on poor performers (not held by this trust), Fevertree £8.80(surprisingly very positive) one to watch & HL £8.50(meeting Mgt today, holds more assets then next 5 added together) two to watch?.
Keep buying.

[spectoacc] 02/9/2022 13:34

992/1070 L2, can buy at 992 but only small.

[essentialinvestor] 02/9/2022 13:14

£996 I was quoted.

[steve3sandal] 02/9/2022 13:09

Something is up and not the share price £992/£1060.I've just been buying at the apparent bid of £992. I'm guessing a large seller is at work? I don't have Level 2. Anyone wiser here?

[topvest] 24/8/2022 10:17

2% is the standard valuation for fund managers with standard fee terms and non-sticky revenues. Possibly should be a bit higher though for Lindsell Train given its immense profitability. Maybe 3%.
Gresham House and Foresight have a higher valuation as their AUM are more sticky in the alternative asset space.

[giltedge1] 24/8/2022 09:47

Yes have come back to NAV still believe undervalued as other fund managers, rated 3 - 4% FUM & LT only 2% FUM, FUM recovered to Billion 19.3 end of July, & increasing. Core portfolio performing well in these uncertain times LSE, DGE, ULVR, Mondelez. Looking to add 5% yield & quality Blue Chips, wait & see what FUM are at end of August.

[spectoacc] 23/8/2022 10:49

That rise to premium was odd - now back to near par, where it belongs IMO.

[spectoacc] 12/8/2022 06:57

Some talk of Ineos looking to buy out the Glazers at Man Utd.

[steve3sandal] 11/8/2022 21:27

Just to say Man U /HL not held in this IT. No view on why share price outperforming their players.
I agree LTI holdings at last looking up. Somewhat overdue and I think a subject for July Factsheets. Hopefully we will be rewarded. LT valuation up in July for the first time in ages. They continue to value it partly based on £40m profit whereas it has been doing £60m post tax. I bought back a few more on 10% premium last week on the back of their July.