Lindsell Train Investment Share Discussion Threads

[jamielein] 27/8/2021 11:31

They have been warning about the premium for years - it didn't stop it from reaching almost 100% at one point though! It did subsequently fall to 0% so I guess those warnings were right.

I personally believe that they're undervaluing the fund management business, and the market must believe that too since LTI currently stands at around a 25% premium.

[andyadvfn1] 26/8/2021 10:09

Closing paragraph of the monthly report"It is worth noting that the Trust's share price premium to net asset value has since the end of July expanded to above 30%. Some investors believe the value of the premium is attributable to the undervaluation of Lindsell Train Limited ('LTL'). We caution this opinion and think the Trust's board of directors do a good job at valuing the shares given the information at their disposal and their deep knowledge of the company as a longstanding significant minority investor. As the Chairman reiterated in his statement in the recently released annual report, buying shares in the Trust at a premium could lead to a significant loss if stock markets fall and/or LTL's funds under management decline."

[spectoacc] 24/8/2021 11:07

Again, you're talking s/p, not NAV. S/p premium mostly relies on value of L-T itself, which is c.46% of LTI. And L-T's funds have been underperforming fairly substantially, so why should L-T be deemed worth so much more by LTI premium-chasers:

30/12/20 LTI NAV £1,183.42 (For YTD)
26/02/21 LTI NAV £1,184.16 (For 6m)
31/08/20 LTI NAV £1,093.80 (For 12m)
13/08/21 Latest reported LTI NAV £1,248.45.

[andyadvfn1] 24/8/2021 10:35

This LTi however is +14% YTDAnd +25% last 6 monthsand impressively +55% in the last year!

[spectoacc] 24/8/2021 09:38

Found the article - was year to date, not 12 months, to 11th August.

Lindsell Train Global Equity +3%
Scottish Mortgage +12%
LF Blue Whale Growth +14.5%
MSCI World Index + 15%
Fundsmith Equity +16.5%


So only Fundsmiwth beaten the market. Further explanation for L-T being a laggard was the Japan focus.

[spectoacc] 23/8/2021 09:57

Yes, point is premium increasing again, as if L-T's value is increasing, yet L-T fund performance (relatively) in the doldrums.

Guess an increase in valuation for asset managers in general would also account for it - or any indication that L-T's value might soon be monetised.

As you say, that's back to a previous discussion. All things equal, LTI's run-up looks strange in the context of LTI NAV & L-T performance.

[andyadvfn1] 23/8/2021 09:36

Yes that's right. The premium was also quite heady pre pandemic before falling. There were discussions in the past about this and the valuations. It's certainly an interesting one.

[spectoacc] 23/8/2021 09:05

Click NAV chart to 3 months, performance looks flat at best? Any and all share price gain just been the premium increasing.

[andyadvfn1] 23/8/2021 08:59

Turn next ?Seems the turn started 3 months ago, performance since then has been good.

[spectoacc] 23/8/2021 08:24

Interesting piece in paper about how poorly LT Global fund has performed in past year compared to peers. Bottom of a table of about 5 funds and the index. Blamed on UK focus, relative value focus, no big US techs (PayPal holding the nearest to the FAANGS).

Not dissimilar at LTI, which makes the expanding premium seem a little odd if L-T as a whole not performing well - the main/sole argument for the large premium:


(Counter-argument is it's L-T's turn next).

[spectoacc] 18/8/2021 08:54

Premium right back up, presumably market again judging the management co Lindsell Train Limited favourably. 46% of the NAV.

Official NAV £1,296 vs £1,700 s/p.

Still not for me, but well done holders.

[steve3sandal] 12/8/2021 22:59

Up today despite the £50 XD. That’s a bit mad. I’ve top sliced again, hopefully I won’t regret it!

[steve3sandal] 28/6/2021 15:05

More buyers than sellers. It just does move large both ways.

[tscole70] 28/6/2021 13:19

Nice rise here today. Anyone know why?

[mozy123] 09/4/2021 10:54

Haha yes capital gain or loss!

Been buying LSE and ULVR on weakness, as well as some discount plays in the P/E sector you will be happy to know Specto!

Have a good day

[spectoacc] 09/4/2021 07:28

"Capital Gain" column should perhaps be "Capital Loss" :)

Agree with prices. Started on divis a few times before losing patience. Eg on a non-compound basis, IMB's current price becomes £17.27. But divis aren't going to get me ahead of Train atm, nor either of us to positive. Which considering this was from Sept 2019, well before Covid, isn't great.

[mozy123] 07/4/2021 09:54

Hi specto,

hope your well.

Yes without dividends I have the following

Ticker Price Paid Price Now Capital Gain
Mozy DGE £34.40 £31.24 -9.19%
Mozy LSE £56.60 £73.36 29.61%
Mozy BAG £8.70 £5.09 -41.49%
Mozy ULVR £50.00 £41.10 -17.80%
-9.72%
Specto IMB £20.00 £15.16 -24.20%
Specto Lloy £0.58 £0.43 -25.02%
Specto ITV £1.09 £1.24 13.76%
Specto NRR £1.71 £1.07 -37.43%
-18.22%

[essentialinvestor] 18/3/2021 16:33

One of my more prescient posts!

EssentialInvestor10 Nov '20 - 10:42 - 376 of 378 Edit

GBP will get a big boost on any EU exit deal, might be worth
keeping in mind re overseas earners.



Tbf my cat Gump could have made that call.

[spectoacc] 18/3/2021 09:06

@mozy123 - value coming back, so have re-run the calculation.

As usual, depends when you run it - I was well up, then Train was well up.

You'll be pleased to hear he's still ahead - tho calculation tricky with divis (much more of those to me than to him).

Since 11/09/19 to today, capital-only, he's turned £4k into £3.46k, I've turned £4k into £3.18k. I was £71 up in divis at the March 20 calc, so perhaps Train's about £200 ahead currently, or 5%, allowing for another year. But my divis suffered deeper cuts in 2020 so it isn't a straight calc, what with compounding too.

The LTI Top 10 has moved around a bit: LSEG still over 9% despite recent fall, DGE 5%, ULVR 3.5%, BAG 2.6%. But %'s skewed due to the 47% in LT Ltd, making LSEG position particularly outsized. FGT might be more relevant, has 40% in its top 4:

DGE
LSEG
ULVR
RELX

And is about flat over 2 years (which with compounded divis & movement in the other holdings, sounds about right vs the above calc).

A reminder the LTI stocks I picked for NT (based on LTI) were DGE, LSEG, BAG, ULVR, vs my picks of IMB, LLOY, ITV, NRR.

What I'd be curious about is whether Train would pick those now, and in those sizes (he'd say he would, but PSON shows his difficulty in selling). Several seem to be borderline ex-growth, but still on high-ish p/es. (27; 34; 19; 28 respectively).

EXPN, PZC been additions. FEVR not doing so well today but still an interesting co.

Still think - if I was a fan - I'd buy the individual stocks over LTI or FGT, based on low turnover & costs. 0.5% might not sound much but if you're holding 20 years, you're giving up a lot. LTI at a premium (or even par) relies on LT Ltd valuation, & FGT always trades around par so no discount to make up for the fees.

Glug -

[spectoacc] 17/11/2020 15:12

Premium climbed back up, having been at par only last month.

[essentialinvestor] 10/11/2020 10:42

GBP will get a big boost on any EU exit deal, might be worth
keeping in mind re overseas earners.

[steve3sandal] 09/11/2020 20:06

Why do you think this is a bargain for certain?

[undervaluedassets] 09/11/2020 14:48

After everyone has bought the primary bargains (airlines, oils etc etc) they will look around for the secondary ones.

This is one for certain and pays a nice divi too

[steve3sandal] 03/11/2020 22:29

That’ll be Frostow. Ugly October with AUM down £1.5Bn just under 5% off. I’m wondering if they are beginning to run out of luck. I’m holding an uncomfortable amount relative to my portfolio but I’ve only got buy limit orders in.