Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[garycook] 15/2/2018 11:31

Sold out of LRE on 06/11/2017 at 756.64.Lucky I got the timing correct.I would not re-invest until the Special is reinstated.Also lucky to buy at 533.69 on 10/03/2016.

[pogue] 15/2/2018 10:56

yeah thats what I am thinking. Is the share price going to go up with no specials? Not sure. It was the specials that got me here in the first place without them I am not seeing the reason to hold, finger on the trigger just now.

[garycook] 15/2/2018 10:25

I would be surprised to see LRE pay a Special again this year,maybe Nov 2019.

[pogue] 15/2/2018 10:15

speedsgh
whilst I agree generally with your post I am not so sure of the LTBH quality here just now and think a sell and return in a year maybe more appropriate. The statement below from the RNS is what makes me think this.
'I expect 2018 to be another challenging year for our industry, but I am confident that we have further demonstrated that the Lancashire Group has the appropriate business model, talent and access to capital to maximise underwriting opportunities to benefit our shareholders"'

[jrphoenixw2] 15/2/2018 10:13

JSW wrote: 'Problem is erosion - and the fact that it will be a LONG time b4 we hear about the next spec divi.'

No kidding, I was mulling that earlier. The first challenge might be 'filling the gap' back to last night's close @ 654p. How much future good news/results will that take ... [rhetorical question].

Buy-out rumours have circulated on/off for years, but that was when specials were more likely and/or being paid; who'd want to buy today... I don't see it.

[garycook] 15/2/2018 08:55

JSW2,Agree LRE only paying 1.6% Dividend yield atm,when you can get 6% plus elsewhere in this sector !

[jswjsw] 15/2/2018 08:29

Well, compared to its peers a mkt/bk value of about 1.6 is not out of the way. Problem is erosion - and the fact that it will be a LONG time b4 we hear about the next spec divi.
550 ? Could do... Stopping on the sidelines for now.
j

[jrphoenixw2] 15/2/2018 08:27

Gapped lower on the open circa -6.5%

[bulltradept] 15/2/2018 08:22

All known about though surely?

[garycook] 15/2/2018 07:36

jrp.It does look bleak.Back to £6 or even lower,

[jrphoenixw2] 15/2/2018 07:20

Having skimmed through the results it all looks bleak to me...
Anyway, for the record here's the detail of the div.
-----
Dividends
The Lancashire Board declared the following dividends during 2017:
• A final dividend relating to 2016 of $0.10 per common share; and
• An interim dividend of $0.05 per common share.
Lancashire announces that its Board of Directors has declared a final dividend for 2017 of $0.10 per common share (approximately (£0.07) per common share at the current exchange rate), which will result in an aggregate payment of approximately $20 million. The dividend will be paid in Pounds Sterling on 21 March 2018 (the "Dividend Payment Date") to shareholders of record on 23 February 2018 (the "Record Date") using the £ / $ spot market exchange rate at 12 Noon London time on the Record Date.

[jrphoenixw2] 15/2/2018 07:09

Released in last few minutes...
Final Results
REDUCTION IN FULLY CONVERTED BOOK VALUE PER SHARE, ADJUSTED FOR DIVIDENDS, OF 0.9% IN Q4 2017 AND 5.9% IN 2017
COMBINED RATIO OF 119.5% IN Q4 2017 AND 124.9% IN 2017
FINAL ORDINARY DIVIDEND OF $0.10 PER COMMON SHARE
FULLY CONVERTED BOOK VALUE PER SHARE OF $5.48 AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2017

'Financials highlights' = 8 lines, all negative for FY17 vs FY16
....

[jrphoenixw2] 13/2/2018 12:01

It's also going down because the sellers net materially outweigh the buyers.
Volume at noon is less than 10% of 30-day [full day] average. I.e. an intra-day run-rate of circa 20% of the usual volume.

[11_percent] 05/2/2018 10:25

This is going down with the bond market.

[jrphoenixw2] 29/1/2018 08:40

Friday close: 685.5
This morning on the open it hit 699/+1.5% [LSE] at 8.04am, on volume of just 12k.
Anyone putting in market orders [versus limit orders] might want to watch out!

[jrphoenixw2] 26/1/2018 09:55

I was looking at LREs open this morning, on Google/Finance. I started wondering if the real-time price feed had somehow stopped working as the price didn't move, at all, between 9.35-9.50. But is moving again now and it just seems that there simply were no trades to move the price in that period. Apparently THAT is how illiquid LRE is this morning.

[jrphoenixw2] 23/1/2018 10:31

No RNS re: major trades yesterday, at least not yet.
But whilst checking there was one last week I missed:

Setanta Asset Management Limited
5. Date of the transaction and date on which the threshold is crossed or reached: 16 January 2018
6. Date on which issuer notified: 17 January 2018
7. Threshold(s) that is/are crossed or reached: 9%

Position 18.023M > 18.136M = 9.008%
Notification dd. 18-Jan 4.30pm

Setanta [Irish subsidiary of Canada Life] -
' Investment Philosophy
We in Setanta Asset Management do not believe the market is efficient. Our aim is to purchase and own assets at a price below a reasonable assessment of their worth. This is where we focus our resources. Our process is akin to assessing a part ownership of a business rather than trading a security. This assessment of value must always encompass a thorough understanding of where this value is derived. We have a long term investment horizon and risk management is always central. We regard risk as the potential for permanent impairment of value. Integrity is a key tenet of our professional DNA and we embrace a culture of continued learning.'
[www.] setanta-asset.com/about

[jrphoenixw2] 22/1/2018 17:59

Thanks for that^ I was wondering if we'd get any clues/RNSs tomorrow.

I make the volume [via Google Finance] 859k/338.5k the latter being the 30-day average. Ie. 221%.

[chrissh] 22/1/2018 17:15

In response to the Validus takeover by AIG

[jrphoenixw2] 22/1/2018 14:57

Volume of just c90k between 12-12.15 spiked the price 651>669.5p. +2.84% in 15 minutes.

For the record there was another chunky 2-min candle at 14.46hrs, of 53k, but that had no material impact on the price.

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[jrphoenixw2] 18/1/2018 18:47

'Lancashire Holdings Heavily Leveraged To Improving Prices'
PRO Pick| Jan. 16, 2018 11:33 AM ET|Stephen Simpson, CFA

[jrphoenixw2] 12/1/2018 17:54

+0.75% at the close on 239% average daily volume [948,401/396,059]. Perhaps it's starting to perk up a bit.

[jrphoenixw2] 12/1/2018 09:51

And similar to^ one week later/today. Between 8.05-15 volume of circa 50k spiked the price 1%. There the bid-side dried up and down it came again. Makes it challenging to get any size though.