Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 06/7/2017 09:03

Not the best of days to be 9million short, poor Crispin.

[jrphoenixw2] 06/7/2017 08:28

That explains it, thanks.
[extract]
'Novae said it will be bought at 700.00 pence per share, a premium of around 20% to its closing price of 581.50p on Wednesday. This also represents a premium of around 29% to its volume weighted average closing share price for the month up to July 4, the last business day before the announcement.
The acquisition is also a 1.5 multiple of Novae's reported book value of GBP318.8 million as at December 31. Novae's market cap was GBP374.6 million at Wednesday's close. ...
A number of acquisitions in recent years has seen other insurers, such as Amlin PLC and Brit PLC, similarly bought by overseas rivals, the newspaper noted. Novae's takeover will leave just three specialist Lloyd's insurers listed on the London Stock Exchange, namely Beazley PLC, Hiscox Ltd and Lancashire Holdings Ltd.'

... LRE sits at the side like a damsel waiting to have her card marked for the last dance. I'm finding it impossible to trim/re-balance my position with this seemingly perpetual 'what if' in the background. Still, I'd rather wait in hope on the benches coining the div than be flayed alive on the floor like Odey with his -4.49% short, bwahaha

[11_percent] 06/7/2017 08:11

Ok, cheers.

[cwa1] 06/7/2017 08:07

Reaction to the NVA takeover this morning.

[11_percent] 06/7/2017 08:03

Yes, saw that.

Takeover???

[jrphoenixw2] 06/7/2017 08:00

Perky start to the morning. Over half the avg daily vol in the first hour, 167k/321k.
With the price +28.5p +4.01% it makes it the highest riser intra-day in the FTSE-250. It'll be interesting to see if any 'Major Holding' RNSs come out on the back of that.

[jrphoenixw2] 19/6/2017 08:17

Morning CWA, Ok, thanks and noted, I think I've got it now.
The unexpected thing for me is that the feed-px on this page was correct [685p]. As was Yahoo and the Lancashire investors page. But the LSE itself was wrong; in that it showed 697.5 which was the 4.30pm pre-auction close level. That surprises me, but at least reliable sources now seem clearer - trust the LRE site over the LSE one for a start.

[cwa1] 19/6/2017 07:13

Morning jrp

Don't know if you are about but you will notice that 685p, the previous UT close, is being used as the "base case" for today as we discussed. So when this morning's UT was those 35 shares at 688p, the opening price was shown as +3p. Clearly that is going to change as the day goes on-but it will still be the difference between whatever the current trade print is and what the previous UT was.

[jrphoenixw2] 17/6/2017 08:40

Thanks for that, I've learned something new :)
I was aware of some form of post-close auction, as it manifests by for example my not noting reliable actual closing prices until after about 5.10pm, that on a delayed px feed. And it's not at all unusual for the price to swing wildly between the '''main close''' at 4.30pm and the post-auction close that's seemingly up to 20 minutes later. Frustrating when you think you've had a good day, as the px's always seem to drop. Maybe that's part of pre-weekend off-risking...

This goes into it in detail, quite likely more than most will want. What is clear is that it's opaque/uncertain until the end... when ever that comes.

ps. Despite the shouty URL it is an intelligent and thought out article.

[cwa1] 16/6/2017 20:43

Uncrossing Trade. Sometimes called the Unwinding Trade but the former one is the official name. The official "base price" in the morning is the previous UT price-685p in this case. If the Monday morning UT is, say,695, then the price will be shown as +10p to start with(tho', clearly, it can change very quickly from that figure based on any AT(Automatic Trade) that is printed).

As far as I am concerned 685 IS the closing price.

All IMVHO only :-)

[jrphoenixw2] 16/6/2017 18:08

Thx CWA, can you clarify 'UT'?

- And all things being equal, where might one expect it to open on Monday, 685, or 697.5p? I'm all for conservatism, but that's a material difference.

- Interesting to note LRE quote 685p as the close px too hxxp://www.lancashiregroup.com/en/investors/share-price/share-price-information.html

[cwa1] 16/6/2017 17:37

The UT was at 685p so, personally, I would take that one as it is the price that matched buyers and sellers for the normal post market closing trade.

[jrphoenixw2] 16/6/2017 16:55

Can anyone clarify why it can be hard to ascertain a closing price, esp. apparently on a Friday?
The LSE has 697.50p
The intra-day chart above suggests about that. But if you look at the overview/snap-shot page it shows 685p, despite having right adjacent a Bid/Offer at 697/698.
Google shows 689.62p
Yahoo has 685p

Something to do with the after-market??
Which would you consider the most accurate?

[garycook] 08/6/2017 00:04

Could be Woodford having a top up.

[jrphoenixw2] 07/6/2017 17:05

The volume today started out as dismal through lunchtime. Then at 15.52hrs [2-min periods] someone banged through 227k of volume, in fact that alone = 34% of the total daily volume. Wonder what that was? Despite which the price only spiked 2p, and then only for under 5 minutes before retracing back.

Zzzzz.

[jrphoenixw2] 07/5/2017 08:27

The above^ link in post 1092 takes you to the Yahoo homepage... perhaps the brackets 'break it' don't know.
As an alt I received an e-mail alert today from the SeekingAlpha website with a link to another copy of the transcript. So FWIW here it is...

The overall impression I get is there is something of a race to the bottom in the industry, competition for business at lower and lower profit margins. But they say that that appears to be bottoming out.

[gsbmba99] 05/5/2017 17:58

I only skimmed but didn't see anything obvious (

[jrphoenixw2] 05/5/2017 16:15

Was thinking the same. No idea, barring a delayed reaction to their results yesterday...

[garycook] 05/5/2017 15:30

WTF,is going on with LRE.Has there been a disaster or something else happen ?

[jrphoenixw2] 05/5/2017 09:47

Interesting intra-day graph on Google/Finance. I doubt the direct link to the page will work as the URL is long and looks like it might be a cached version for my 'session'. But if you go to the Google/Finance and then search on LON:LRE...

It started drifting lower under 690 at about 9.30, then there are four spikes
9.54 677.5>690
10.02 676.5>690
10.16 675>690
10.26 675>690

and now it's back at 675...

Added later/FWIW: You can't see it now, the granularity has reduced as the day goes on.

[gsbmba99] 04/5/2017 14:39

They've said they were carrying excess capital for a couple of quarters now. Sounds like they are positioning themselves should the decline in rates reverse. Possibly triggered by a US hurricane. Nearly 12 years since last Category 3 or above hurricane in the US (

[gsbmba99] 04/5/2017 14:35

From Elaine's quote in the announcement: "With further reductions in exposure, and enhancements to our reinsurance program, we continue to carry a capital buffer well in excess of our needs. We intend to retain that over the course of this year's US wind season for any opportunities that may arise. With more capital than we need, there are no current plans to raise capital. However, I would, once again, like to thank our shareholders for affording us the flexibility to do so by approving the issue of up to 15% of our share capital on a non-pre-emptive basis."