Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 09/10/2017 07:44

On the face of it that sounds relatively OK to me, now let's see what the market makes of it....

[jrphoenixw2] 09/10/2017 07:09

RNS this morning [via Investegate]:

-----------------------
'Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and Mexican earthquakes – Lancashire Group Preliminary loss estimate

Lancashire Holdings Limited (the “Company”; or “Lancashire221;) announces today its range for its estimated net ultimate losses arising from hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and the two recent earthquake loss events in Mexico. The aggregate estimated net ultimate losses for these events is expected to be in a range of $106 million to $212 million after anticipated recoveries from its outwards reinsurance programme and the impact of outwards and inwards reinstatement premiums. This estimate falls well within the Company’s modelled loss ranges for these types of catastrophe events.

[rdcdragon] 06/10/2017 08:42

The rumour mill in the city is suggesting Lloyd's maybe on course to make a loss this year. I've sold out of LRE pending a statement or the 3rd quarter results. The risk of cutting the special dividend feels high and I think it would seriously effect the share price in the short term.

[minerve] 29/9/2017 10:18

Our portfolios are probably carbon copies GARYCOOK! LOL

[minerve] 29/9/2017 10:17

These natural events should help premiums improve. Also the likely increase in bond yields and the increased cost of capital in the insurance space should see these shares (Beazley/Lancashire) improve in the medium term IMO. I have both insurers and bought more in Lancashire recently.

[garycook] 29/9/2017 09:42

jrp,Should have added at around 610p.But I own 4,550 Shares,and I want to see results Nov 2,before committing any more funds.By the way BKG now starting to recover nicely also.

[jrphoenixw2] 26/9/2017 08:02

To what extent can you read-across Hiscox's modeled losses onto LRE?
And if there is a material correlation between the two company's risk books, is that fairly reflected in HSX being +20%YTD and LRE being -10.5% ?

I am rather puzzled at the moment as to what the losses for LRE this hurricane season might be. It is striking that they have made no statements yet re: estimated losses; such updates have been made in the past. The season is ongoing through end October, yet HSX saw fit to make such an statement.

I hope 'no news is good news', but the silence is becoming a little deafening IMO. Perhaps the market in LRE as a whole is getting unsettled with it too, and is steering towards 'worst case' until an update fills the information void.

[garycook] 26/9/2017 02:52

11%,Could be.That is why the share price has dropped to a 52 week low of 608p,and held it and now a slight recovery yesterday.But all Insurers are down atm,and out of favour even Life Insurers.We will have to wait for Nov 2 results to see the Claims,and if any Special will be given this year.LRE still the best of the bunch,and still a good long term buy at these levels,and especially with this year being a bad year.Also Neil Woodford invest in LRE.I do not think he will be selling at this level but adding to his holding

[11_percent] 25/9/2017 21:43

Is that the low.

No special divi this year.

[gsbmba99] 18/9/2017 07:32

Statement from Hiscox on Hurricane Harvey: "Based on an insured market loss of US$25 billion (excluding the government backed National Flood Insurance Program), Hiscox estimates net claims of approximately US$150 million. This is within the Group's modelled range of claims for an event of this nature, and reinsurance protections for the Group remain substantially intact." CEO comment: "2017 will be an expensive year for natural catastrophes but the industry can cope. Insurance remains a cyclical business and after a long period of price reductions, insurance rates in the affected areas and in specific sectors such as large property are likely to increase. In the wider global insurance market for large risks, we expect rates to stabilise and begin to increase."

[jrphoenixw2] 11/9/2017 13:04

No kidding^. Now 4*AvgVol @712k a/o 1pm

Add: 5.3*@3.15pm

[mister md] 11/9/2017 12:35

Great to see this bounce back so strongly

[jrphoenixw2] 11/9/2017 11:15

10.30 this morning
'The damages could, however, come in at less than $50bn compared to a previous estimate of around $192bn, according to LCG analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.'

[effortless cool] 11/9/2017 10:40

Irma tracked further west than forecast and lost strength earlier than forecast, meaning it will be a significantly smaller loss for the insurance industry than looked likely late last week. AIR have just estimated $20bn-$40bn.

[jrphoenixw2] 11/9/2017 09:58

Now triple avg daily vol at 9.56am. 534k/178k

[pogue] 11/9/2017 09:24

looks like others had same idea as me

[jrphoenixw2] 11/9/2017 09:04

@9.01am
Vol/Average = 375,919/177,902 ie over double avg daily in the opening hour.
Px +7.4%

[pogue] 11/9/2017 08:00

Thanks bulltradept for the info still no way of quantifying it I guess so its a punt at these prices on how much exposure there is. I am thinking along the lines of buy on the rumours and sell on the news as I cant see them being that exposed.

[bulltradept] 10/9/2017 19:03

Pogue, It is exposed though as the IC states:

July 28, 2017

A lack of major claims meant that premiums continued to soften in the Lloyd’s of London market, but Lancashire (LRE) resisted the temptation to chase unprofitable business in the first half. At the same time, reinsurance remained attractively priced, and more protection for hurricane risk was bought than in previous years. And with risk levels at historic lows, if there are no major events in the coming hurricane season Lancashire expects to return capital to shareholders later in the year.

Gross property premiums written fell by 13.6 per cent, mainly because multi-year contracts in the political risk and terrorism classes are not yet due for renewal. Energy gross premiums were also down, falling by 18 per cent, while the timing on non-annual renewals helped to boost marine gross premiums by 56.7 per cent, and in the Lloyd’s section premiums fell by 12.9 per cent. Aviation premiums were down by more than a half.

The major declines came in the energy, property and terrorism books as overcapacity in the market continued to put downward pressure on rates. Net investment income fell 8.1 per cent (see table), equating to a return of 1.5 per cent.

Analysts at Numis are forecasting EPS of 52.2p for the year to December 2017, from pre-tax profit of $150m, down from 61.2p in 2016.

Hence why LRE is where it is today, I'd suggest.

[pogue] 09/9/2017 10:50

Thank you for 'teaching' me Effortless Cool though I am not sure what I have actually learned. You appear like the rest of us not to actually know what LRE is exposed to in this hurricane season neither does anyone else here know, their published company information is not very specific and their only public statement was positive but had a couple of big if's in it.