Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 24/10/2017 15:34

RNS out this PM:
Invesco have gone from 17% long to 18.31%, Traded 23/10, notified 24/10.

One more block-purchase like that and they're getting close to 'compulsory bid' territory, i.e. 18.3+1.3=19.6% vs threshold of 20%

Surprised the share hasn't more of a spring in it's step this pm...

[garycook] 19/10/2017 23:50

jrp,Yes interesting.Can only bode well with big buys like that.

[jrphoenixw2] 19/10/2017 17:17

Before I lose the intra-day detail of the price/volume candles I'd like to note down some unusual trading today.

Per data on Google/Finance:
'Vol/Avg. 2.86M/385,630' = ie 742%

With one 2-minute candle at 12.54hrs having a vol of 866k (@665.5p), another at 12.58hrs vol=865k (@667p) and then a final notable one at 15.52hrs of 1742k @ 667p. yet it had no visible immediate impact on the price. Despite which the greatest temporary spike perhaps caused was +0.3%, and the share closed down -0.22%.

866+865+1742=3.473M vs Google's total daily vol of 2.86M - Hmm!?

Edit/add: Doesn't seem to be an error on Google either, the LRE website shows vol @ '2,863,738

[jrphoenixw2] 17/10/2017 06:20

Per an RNS this morning, Woodford just halved his position selling around 7 million shares.

[speedsgh] 10/10/2017 07:19

Peel Hunt: Lancashire hurricane losses to result in divi cut -

Hurricane losses will put earnings at Lancashire (LRE) into the red this year and the reinsurer may be forced to cut its special dividend, according to Peel Hunt.

Analyst Andreas van Embden retained his ‘add’ recommendation and target price of 690p on the stock after the insurer said it expected losses from the hurricane season to be within $106 million (£80.6 million) and $212 million compared with Peel Hunt’s estimated top range of $203 million. The shares rose 1% to 669p yesterday.

‘This is a material loss, and will pull earnings into the red this year,’ he said. ‘However, Lancashire’s capital position is healthy and assuming a cut in the special dividend we believe it has the flexibility to expand exposures.

‘We continue to favour Lancashire among the Lloyd’s names and believe the company has the highest gearing to a rising rate environment in the US property catastrophe reinsurance market.’

[jrphoenixw2] 09/10/2017 08:19

Yep, just to clarify, I posted just the headline and first paragraph - for copyright reasons. I didn't post the direct link as it contained the 'cached session' looong URL and I suspect wouldn't work for others.
Looks like the stock rallied on the headline, but then pulled back again on the caveat.

[speedsgh] 09/10/2017 07:52

Note the caveat too. This is just an initial estimate based on limited data to date & ultimate losses may vary (either reduce or increase) materially from current estimates...

"Lancashire’s preliminary estimates for the loss events noted have been derived from a combination of market data and assumptions, a limited number of provisional loss advices, limited client loss data and modelled loss projections. As additional information emerges, the Company’s actual ultimate loss may vary, perhaps materially, from the preliminary estimates announced. The final settlement of all claims is likely to take place over a considerable period of time."

[cwa1] 09/10/2017 06:44

On the face of it that sounds relatively OK to me, now let's see what the market makes of it....

[jrphoenixw2] 09/10/2017 06:09

RNS this morning [via Investegate]:

-----------------------
'Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and Mexican earthquakes – Lancashire Group Preliminary loss estimate

Lancashire Holdings Limited (the “Company”; or “Lancashire221;) announces today its range for its estimated net ultimate losses arising from hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria and the two recent earthquake loss events in Mexico. The aggregate estimated net ultimate losses for these events is expected to be in a range of $106 million to $212 million after anticipated recoveries from its outwards reinsurance programme and the impact of outwards and inwards reinstatement premiums. This estimate falls well within the Company’s modelled loss ranges for these types of catastrophe events.

[rdcdragon] 06/10/2017 07:42

The rumour mill in the city is suggesting Lloyd's maybe on course to make a loss this year. I've sold out of LRE pending a statement or the 3rd quarter results. The risk of cutting the special dividend feels high and I think it would seriously effect the share price in the short term.

[minerve] 29/9/2017 09:18

Our portfolios are probably carbon copies GARYCOOK! LOL

[minerve] 29/9/2017 09:17

These natural events should help premiums improve. Also the likely increase in bond yields and the increased cost of capital in the insurance space should see these shares (Beazley/Lancashire) improve in the medium term IMO. I have both insurers and bought more in Lancashire recently.

[garycook] 29/9/2017 08:42

jrp,Should have added at around 610p.But I own 4,550 Shares,and I want to see results Nov 2,before committing any more funds.By the way BKG now starting to recover nicely also.

[jrphoenixw2] 26/9/2017 07:02

To what extent can you read-across Hiscox's modeled losses onto LRE?
And if there is a material correlation between the two company's risk books, is that fairly reflected in HSX being +20%YTD and LRE being -10.5% ?

I am rather puzzled at the moment as to what the losses for LRE this hurricane season might be. It is striking that they have made no statements yet re: estimated losses; such updates have been made in the past. The season is ongoing through end October, yet HSX saw fit to make such an statement.

I hope 'no news is good news', but the silence is becoming a little deafening IMO. Perhaps the market in LRE as a whole is getting unsettled with it too, and is steering towards 'worst case' until an update fills the information void.

[garycook] 26/9/2017 01:52

11%,Could be.That is why the share price has dropped to a 52 week low of 608p,and held it and now a slight recovery yesterday.But all Insurers are down atm,and out of favour even Life Insurers.We will have to wait for Nov 2 results to see the Claims,and if any Special will be given this year.LRE still the best of the bunch,and still a good long term buy at these levels,and especially with this year being a bad year.Also Neil Woodford invest in LRE.I do not think he will be selling at this level but adding to his holding

[11_percent] 25/9/2017 20:43

Is that the low.

No special divi this year.

[gsbmba99] 18/9/2017 06:32

Statement from Hiscox on Hurricane Harvey: "Based on an insured market loss of US$25 billion (excluding the government backed National Flood Insurance Program), Hiscox estimates net claims of approximately US$150 million. This is within the Group's modelled range of claims for an event of this nature, and reinsurance protections for the Group remain substantially intact." CEO comment: "2017 will be an expensive year for natural catastrophes but the industry can cope. Insurance remains a cyclical business and after a long period of price reductions, insurance rates in the affected areas and in specific sectors such as large property are likely to increase. In the wider global insurance market for large risks, we expect rates to stabilise and begin to increase."

[jrphoenixw2] 11/9/2017 12:04

No kidding^. Now 4*AvgVol @712k a/o 1pm

Add: 5.3*@3.15pm

[mister md] 11/9/2017 11:35

Great to see this bounce back so strongly

[jrphoenixw2] 11/9/2017 10:15

10.30 this morning
'The damages could, however, come in at less than $50bn compared to a previous estimate of around $192bn, according to LCG analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.'

[effortless cool] 11/9/2017 09:40

Irma tracked further west than forecast and lost strength earlier than forecast, meaning it will be a significantly smaller loss for the insurance industry than looked likely late last week. AIR have just estimated $20bn-$40bn.

[jrphoenixw2] 11/9/2017 08:58

Now triple avg daily vol at 9.56am. 534k/178k