Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[effortless cool] 06/9/2017 16:48

Possibly. I picked up the %ages from The Insurance Insider. I expect they got them from the accounts or a presentation. They quote a $156m 1-in-100 PML.

[gsbmba99] 06/9/2017 16:36

EC, are you referring to the $140m (ish) number in the PML chart on page 18 of the First quarter investor presentation?

[effortless cool] 06/9/2017 16:08

Okay, sorry.

A non-Gulf of Mexico windstorm effectively means a hurricane that hits Florida or the US east coast.

A 1-in-100 windstorm event is one of such a severity that catastrophe models suggest it (or something worse) will only happen once every 100 years.

11.5% of shareholders equity is LRE's estimated loss from such an event, taken from publicly available information.

[jrphoenixw2] 06/9/2017 16:02

If you're referring to this, unfortunately I don't understand what it means:- 'LRE have 11.5% of shareholder funds exposed 10 a non-Gulf of Mexico 1-in-100 US windstorm event, and 24.0% exposed to a 1-in-250 event.'

[effortless cool] 06/9/2017 15:40

LRE has very significant exposure, as I have already indicated.

Irma seems unlikely to go into the Gulf. It will either hit Florida or track still further east, skirting Florida and making landfall in Carolina.

[jrphoenixw2] 06/9/2017 15:20

What exposure have LRE to Miami/Florida? I'd have thought it's avoiding running through the Gulf of Mexico and it's oil fields that we might feel more positive about.

[woodhawk] 06/9/2017 12:28

Thanks for your concern, Effortless, but I've always found I make the most on my investments going against the grain. I'm not hugely exposed here anyway.

[woodhawk] 06/9/2017 12:04

Decided to join you today - attracted by the rather large divi. Bought my second tranch just now at 651p. Looks well oversold.

[effortless cool] 01/9/2017 21:35

I meant insurance market, not stock market.

[jrphoenixw2] 01/9/2017 18:01

No it's not, if it were we'd know by now. And the market - last week of August - is as dead as a door-nail. Hence bargain hunting time...

[effortless cool] 01/9/2017 14:41

KCC first out with an estimate of the insured loss from Hurricane Harvey: $15bn.

By no means a whopper, then, with much of the flood damage uninsured, and certainly not going to turn the market.

[jrphoenixw2] 01/9/2017 11:35

That year end div is going to be so freakin juicy,
and the market is so losey,
I just had to chuck in another 1/4mil'anoosy

:)

[jrphoenixw2] 01/9/2017 10:47

Ooh, did I do that intra-day spike [innocent face] :-D

[jrphoenixw2] 01/9/2017 10:28

- That should perk it up a bit. What. What? It's a kin bargain on this yield :)

[pogue] 31/8/2017 07:16

The statement does not say for certain they are in the clear only they think they are in the clear and need to check a couple of things. I have heard too many reassuring statements from companies in the past saying they think they are fine only to have reality prove otherwise. No reason to believe LRE are in deep trouble but that statement tells me nothing concrete.

[effortless cool] 30/8/2017 16:42

Dunce's cap for Barrie Cornes ...

Barrie Cornes, an analyst at Panmure Gordon & Co., wrote in a note to clients on Monday. He estimated costs of 200 million pounds ($259 million) for Lancashire Holdings Ltd. and 100 million pounds each for Hiscox Ltd. and Beazley Plc.

[effortless cool] 29/8/2017 21:30

gsbmba99,

Let's say Harvey is a $35bn loss. That makes it about the same size as Ike (inflation-adjusted) in 2008. Ike was not a market-turning event, although I recall regional property insurance/reinsurance rates did strengthen for about a year. To really turn the market around, I think you would need a $100bn+ (perhaps quite a lot +) event.

I'm afraid I have no idea of the impact on LRE. As I mentioned previously, I don't expect market losses to be as evenly spread as would normally be the case for an event of this scale.

[this_is_me] 29/8/2017 19:03

It is bound to put insurance rates up and that normally means much bigger profits in the medium term.

[gsbmba99] 29/8/2017 17:28

Not sure where Equity Development got their number came from.
Not an insurance person, but if the LRE corporate ethos is legit I would be very surprised to hear that they had large flood exposure to Houston. That seems only marginally smarter than offering flood insurance in New Orleans.
EC, Do you have a view as to what would cause a reversal in the decline in rates? Do you see the LRE special dividend for this year as "at risk" as a result of Harvey?