Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 19/8/2016 15:00

I've been pondering in recent recent weeks whether it might be a take-over target, on a FY of roughly 13% they're [we're!] printing divs.
But re: the above article on the OTPP, I wonder, they don't even seem to have a notifiable stake yet. Plus, 618p would be having a laugh. Who would vote for a take-over at effectively nil premium?
X-ref: average premium in US take-overs in 2015 was 16%*, quite low compared to recent years. LRE now @ 610, so that would be a bid of say 708p.

- Of course LRE could be spreading low-ball red herrings, to coax some bigger fi$h in hehe, who knows...

*source:

[speedsgh] 19/8/2016 09:16

Canadian predator the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan circling Lloyd's insurer Lancashire Holdings -

Lloyd's of London insurer Lancashire Holdings was in focus on a quiet day in mid-August.

The talk in the market is that a massive Canadian pension fund, thought to be Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, approached the business before Britain's referendum on leaving the European Union about taking the company private.

It is said that before Brexit, the fund had indicated it could be willing to offer about £1.3billion or 618p a share for Lancashire Holdings.

It's not clear, however, whether talks between the FTSE 250 company and its suitor are still 'live'.

Still, reliable sources suggested other parties are interested in Lancashire Holdings, which insures properties, planes and boats, and a takeover deal could be brewing. Shares rose 0.7 per cent, or 4.5p to 610p.

[jrphoenixw2] 15/8/2016 14:45

+10% top-up this pm. Seems a bit of a no-brainer on c13.5% FY. Particularly with Sterling weakness translating into higher converted earnings.

[jrphoenixw2] 14/8/2016 06:36

The info I have...

Interactive Brokers have it accrued at £0.0387

The LRE site states: 'On 26 July 2016 an interim dividend of $0.05 (£0.0379) ;per common share was declared. The dividends will be paid in Pounds Sterling on 31 August 2016 to shareholders of record on 5 August 2016.'

Maybe the IB figure is final, and the LRE announcement was a prelim [pre the rate on the R/D]

[garycook] 14/8/2016 04:36

ATM Over the weekend.I make it 0.0387 = GBP/USD 1.2919

[jrphoenixw2] 13/8/2016 18:00

Can I just check the the final converted rate for the div with P/D 31/8-16 is going to be $0.05 ie. = £0.0379 ?

I usually have a bit of confusion over what the final sum for the converted dividend is, not least as my broker accrues at one FX rate until the last moment [past R/D] and then pays at another. So independently confirming the correct sum always seems to come down to me to try and divine.

Thx.

[chickenrun1] 07/8/2016 08:56

A good performance over the past week despite LRE going ex-dividend on Thursday.

[jrphoenixw2] 27/7/2016 08:31

@GC/SSGH
The note from Elaine Whelan also seems to refer:
[This is from the ADVFN alert/summary of today]

'Our first half performance again demonstrates our ability to manage the cycle and support our core clients. However, while current market conditions continue, we are likely to return our earnings to shareholders at the end of the year."

[garycook] 27/7/2016 07:17

Thanks for that Speeds.Yes we will have to wait until the Q3 update around the 4/11/2016,before we know about the Special.Just interested because LRE did not issue a Special in Q1.And I want to purchase in my Son,s ISA,maybe wait until Nov.

[speedsgh] 27/7/2016 07:09

GC - If i remember correctly the special div, which is usually paid in Dec, is usually announced within Q3 results at start of Nov e.g. last year...

3rd Quarter Results -

[garycook] 27/7/2016 06:50

Steady as she goes 3.2% ROE,and 7.1% so far this year,but no mention of the Special Dividend due in November.Can anyone find out,or is anyone going to the Conference call today to ask the question ?

[jrphoenixw2] 13/7/2016 13:12

Woodford picked up another 180k shares on Monday, with the RNS showing his holding as 25.95mm/13%

... And a few minutes later, L+G sold c55k taking them from 4-3%

[jrphoenixw2] 07/7/2016 15:12

Just wondering if anyone has seen reference/discussion on how the value of Sterling is going to translate through into divs? I appreciate LRE pay in $ that's converted at the spot rate on the Record Date [at noon FWIW], but haven't revisited the geographic spread of their earnings.

So I've a gut feel the fx will be a +ve, but would be interested to hear if anyone's dug deeper on this.

[jrphoenixw2] 20/6/2016 14:37

'RNS Notification of Major Interest' issued this pm, Woodford picked up c1mm to now hold c24mm shares = 12% Threshold crossed.
Nice additional vote of confidence there from a very savvy operator.

[speedsgh] 15/6/2016 10:08

Out of interest Richard Brindle (ex-CEO) & Neil McConachie (ex-CFO) founded a new property and casualty (re)insurance start up last year, Fidelis Insurance, which is part funded by CVC Capital Partners. Would not be surprised to see them seek a stock market listing in the future. Perhaps one to watch in view of their previous success...





Brindle & McConachie back with $2B Fidelis re/insurance hybrid -
Fidelis raises $1.5bn, launches hybrid underwriting/investing reinsurer -

[fizzypop] 14/6/2016 15:53

Interesting end of play. FTSE falls away in last 1/2 hour but LRE powers ahead to 518.50p with last minute buys although I have learnt to be distrustful of LSE figures. The low for the day was 510.50p. Perhaps tomorrow the resurrection will continue.

[fizzypop] 13/6/2016 15:01

Thx guys most helpful.

[jrphoenixw2] 13/6/2016 14:51

Hi FP, here's a file-note I had for the previous div :-

----------
'LRE Results [dated 18/2/16] - Dividends
The Lancashire Board declared the following dividends during 2015:
-- A final dividend of $0.10 and a special dividend of $0.50 (both relating to 2014);
-- An interim dividend of $0.05 per common share; and
-- A special dividend of $0.95 per common share.
Lancashire today announces that its Board of Directors has declared a final dividend for 2015 of $0.10 per common share (approximately GBP0.07 per common share at the current exchange rate), which will result in an aggregate payment of approximately $19.8 million. The dividend will be paid in Pounds Sterling on 23 March 2016 (the "Dividend Payment Date") to shareholders of record on 26 February 2016 (the "Record Date") using the GBP / $ spot market exchange rate at 12 Noon London time on the Record Date.'


------------

So, the short answer is I hear the results in US$ [as above], and can make an estimated conversion to £. A few days later on the R/D I'll note the £/$ rate at noon, and if I've time refine my noted estimate. This is pretty much precisely the accrual I expect to see on my broker statement.
The actual rate is published somewhere. It might come through as an RNS alert in the news-feeds, get advised by my broker, and/or get noted on the LRE/Investors website; right know I don't quite recall. Ironic you ask this, as each time I seem to go around in circles trying to remember where the definitive final real rate is listed... hehe... so I'd be interested if there is a bullet-proof source for this info too, so I can note it down once and for all!

[speedsgh] 13/6/2016 14:51

fizzypop - Yes, I believe company webpage is first place to be updated. They don't issue an rns to confirm conversion rate.

[fizzypop] 13/6/2016 13:57

jrp - I've read that the divi $ to £ conversion is made on the record date. Where is that conversion rate first published - on the dividend history LRE webpage?
Thx.

[jrphoenixw2] 13/6/2016 09:52

I don't get too hung up about precise price, and certainly not whether I've bought this hour or day 'at the bottom', because you can never know. I tend to consider it more in terms of locking in a chunk of yield, a hopefully secure dividend income stream. So if I buy such a source of income yielding x.y% or x.z% matters little, and makes decision making simpler for me.
[That's of course less predictable where there is a corporate policy of paying Special divs].

[fizzypop] 13/6/2016 09:12

I think there is now a possibility that the recent low of 519p on 10 March might be tested again. This will be a long week but looking for 520p by Friday 17th.

[fizzypop] 10/6/2016 15:02

jrp - well said. Now 532p but keeping my powder dry for June 24 even tho 532p is tempting. I always seem to buy a little early.

[jrphoenixw2] 10/6/2016 14:16

Either way (re above), bearing in mind we're entering pre-vote 'peak fear', and combined with the usual Friday pm off-risking I took an opportunity this pm to pick up another 10k at 535p.

I expect this fear to run through next week too hence probable unusual volatility. I'll be ready to bottom fish for more if the opportunity arises.

Maybe next Friday [??] 18th, or in any fall-out on Day+1 on June 24th... we'll see.