Kosmos Energy Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 26/12/2024 03:06

August 9, 2024 – Northern Ocean Ltd. is pleased to announce an extension of the contract with a subsidiary of TotalEnergies SE for continued work in Africa using the Deepsea Mira. The firm term of the contract is extended from October 2024 for one well and provides one additional well option. The extension from October provides firm revenue backlog of approximately $24.3-34.2 million with the option to extend for an additional well potentially adding a further approximately $26.9-36.9 million.

December 24, 2024 – With reference to the stock exchange notice dated 9 August 2024, Northern Ocean Ltd (“NOL” or the “Company”;) is pleased to announce that a subsidiary of TotalEnergies SE has exercised the previously announced option. The firm term of this contract has, as a result, been extended by approximately 65 to 93 days. This extension provides approximately USD 27 to 38 million of additional revenue backlog and will increase NOL’s firm backlog to approximately USD 515 to 545 million.

Not sure what it all means. 1st well has 28 what have now become firm days to go presumably having TD'd with $10m to be spent on reservoir properties & HC investigations? 2nd well (Namibia?) has 65 firm days to TD. Plus testing days after? Any thoughts......

Tamboti-1X has been drilling about 67 days.

[fraserdean] 19/12/2024 11:36

Yep the dual makes no sense to me, acn't imagine is still opens finance

[xxnjr] 19/12/2024 11:27

Jefferies reinitiates Kosmos Energy with ’buy’ - price target 560 pence

[xxnjr] 18/12/2024 17:13

The sometimes wide share price spread in the PLC shares often masks the ups and downs.
Given the limited UK trading volumes I'm struggling to see what KOS gain from their dual UK listing?

[fraserdean] 18/12/2024 13:19

Cool thanks. Interesting times indeed.

The revival of the Kosmos share price has been a bit more muted here in the UK, might be a bit of room for a catchup.

Hope you haven't got too much Tullow, can't see anything getting better there bar the unforeseen on oil prices.

[xxnjr] 18/12/2024 05:25

Rig Update

Deepsea Bollsta about 120 NM to go to "Kapana-1X" location.
Noble Venturer on location at "Rhino Field" (a supply ship heading in the same direction says "SG-1X").
Santorini drillship is as we know on Mopane.
Deepsea Mira unidentified signal suggests still in Tamboti-1X.

[xxnjr] 17/12/2024 23:50

Shares of Kosmos Energy Ltd jumped 19.19% to $3.23 Tuesday, on what proved to be an all-around dismal trading session for the stock market

The stock's rise snapped a three-day losing streak.

Kosmos Energy Ltd. closed $3.84 below its 52-week high ($7.07), which the company achieved on December 26th.

Trading volume (31.4 M) eclipsed its 50-day average volume of 8.9 M.

[cashandcard] 17/12/2024 07:21

Qatar petroleum farms into PEL90 offshore Namibia. Just days away from drilling maiden well, Kapana 1X. Now partnership looks like this; Chevron 52.50%, Qatar 27.50%, Namcor 10%, Custos 5.1%, Sintana Energy 4.9%Cash

[xxnjr] 17/12/2024 02:16

In the last 2 wks the 2025's have dropped from 95.3% to 86.6%
whereas the 2026's have only moved from 89.14% to 87.3% in same time frame according to the Luxembourg Exchange. Bit of a flip there.

[sword77] 16/12/2024 21:23

TLW is not going bust until 2026, they have the money to pay maturing debt of 2025.

[xxnjr] 16/12/2024 20:10

Could be the market thinking. "Well if TLW goes bust what does that mean for the Ghana drilling program scheduled to start q3/24, and next yrs production forecast?" OTOH could just be market doesn't want more of Ghana as suggested above.

TLW Gabon and CDI are really very tired assets.

[sword77] 16/12/2024 17:49

Another-9%, any additional news??

[ohisay] 16/12/2024 15:33

Yes cant believe KOS shareholders will stomach this .
Thanks for both your posts.

[fraserdean] 16/12/2024 15:25

Market reaction to Kosmos says it all, the Gabon assets seem decent but minor and ivoire is fine but far too many eggs in one basket case in Ghana if it goes ahead particularly after the failure of the new geology in Equatorial Guinea. Kosmos are obviously trying to find a new path but this shouldn't be it.

[xxnjr] 15/12/2024 11:29

ohisay - as you've probably gathered I've never been a fan of Dhir to say the least. The problem he had was the incredible volume of share options (he's stupidly been awarded under TLW's [at least from my perspective] ill conceived incentive plans) were underwater, with little prospect of future buoyancy, given Jubilee underperformance and refinancing concerns with the 2026 bonds. So, either

(i) Dhir threw in the towel as he could no longer face standing in front of shareholders facing difficult questions about his performance and the non-delivery of the multiple upsides he had told shareholders about.

or

(ii) There was a board meeting after the last Trading Update and Dhir effectively was fired.

Either way Dhir is exiting. But shareholders need not worry. As according to the RNS

"Rahul will stay in his role until a date to be determined to ensure a smooth transition."

What an incredibly generous and unselfish human act by our CEO despite having that issue with his underwater options.

A mere few days after that, rumours "emerge" that some sort of discussions are taking place with Kosmos. TLW then issue an RNS

"Tullow notes the recent "media speculation" and confirms that it is in preliminary discussions with Kosmos Energy".

Kosmos, perhaps taken aback, respond with

"Kosmos notes today’s announcement by Tullow Oil plc (“Tullow”;) (LSE: TLW) regarding a potential transaction involving Tullow and Kosmos and confirms that it is in very preliminary discussions with Tullow.

It's not a great look. Is it?

[sword77] 15/12/2024 07:57

@xxnjr thx, very helpful

I hope somebody else takes Tullow out 🙏

[ohisay] 14/12/2024 15:30

Thanks for those two posts XX .
Am still trying to understand KOS motives here and therefore how to value this.

[xxnjr] 14/12/2024 13:11

Sounds like (maybe) that was McDade shoving his oar in there to get revenge/the last laugh? Could have been anyone though.

[xxnjr] 14/12/2024 13:06

thx to ctc1 on the tlw board

"Upstream
Kosmos Energy has been described as the “natural acquirer” of Tullow Oil, analysts told Upstream, after the companies released statements notifying the market about a potential takeover being discussed.

The two companies issued press statements on Thursday, confirming that discussions are underway. Kosmos described the interaction so far as “very preliminary discussions.”

Analysts reacting to the news suggested the US-based player is arguably best placed to weigh the value of such a transaction, given its experience in the regions where Tullow is present and its understanding of the underlying assets.

“Given that Kosmos know the assets very well, they're the natural acquirer of Tullow if they did want to do it,” Daniel Slater, research director at Zeus Capital, told Upstream.

Tullow is the operator of the Jubilee and Twenboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) fields offshore Ghana, where Kosmos is a partner.

London-based Tullow’s other assets include operatorship of the long-stalled Lokichar oil project in Kenya as well as holdings in Ivory Coast, Gabon and Argentina.

On a financial level, Slater said the company is “still relatively highly levered, but they've brought that leverage down quite a bit over the last few years”, making the prospect of a deal more attractive.

He believed a transaction would likely be a cash and stock deal.

On the deal's actual value, he said: “It's a question of, given the value of the debt, whether they can come to a price for the equity that is low enough for it to be attractive to Kosmos and high enough for it to be attractive to investors.”

Tullow has been facing challenges on a number of fronts, recently reporting production issues at Jubilee.

The company saw its share price plunge to a four-year low in late November, following a downgrade of its cash flow guidance for the year.

About a week later, Tullow announced its chief executive, Rahul Dhir, would be leaving next year, triggering another sharp drop.

The Tullow stock was down over 10% on Friday morning, following the news of the potential Kosmos merger.

“Having lost its touch in prospecting for hydrocarbons, seen sentiment towards its sector sour, and fallen into financial difficulties, Tullow’s life as a public company could soon come to an end in reduced circumstances,”; said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

Coatsworth noted that the stock had been gaining ground throughout this week, as media speculation suggested a deal may be on the cards. Today’s fall is a reaction to that earlier trend, he said.

Kosmos stock was also down 3% on Friday and, according to Zeus’ Slater, this may indicate investors are of getting more involved with assets that have had historical issues

“What the [share] price [movement] is telling you is they don't want more exposure to those assets,” he said.

If Kosmos does acquire Tullow, share price Angel analyst David Mirzai estimated their combined production would be north of 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, some 60% generated by Kosmos based an 2024 figures.

“The proposed consolidation reflects the growing trend in the E&P sector to add scale and provide operational, financial and fiscal synergies that could unlock future growth by boosting liquidity and access to capital,” said Mirzai.

However, Mirzai argued that the negative share price reaction of both stocks to the deal "suggests that creating a $2-billion market cap E&P with over $4 billion of net debt may be too much for investors to swallow, despite the obvious operational synergies."

Total net debt of the two players is currently about $4.1 billion, some 65% of which is on Kosmos' books.

An oil executive familiar with Tullow well told Upstream that he can “see the logic” of the deal, pointing out there would be “a lot” of general and administrative cost savings, and would expect Tullow’s office in west London to close.

Both companies, said Mirzai, have focused on the delivery of a free cash flow inflection point in 2024 on the back of rising production and revenues against lower capital expenditures, with a 2025 strategy dedicated to debt reduction.

However, missed production targets have weighed on both share prices this year and, with significant debt still on the balance sheet, he said: “We think there is limited room for surprises compared to peers given the outlined capital allocation policy.”

Mirzai also expects other groups “to take an interest in Tullow’s operated portfolio.”

One name he highlighted is privately-owned Trident Energy, a London-based player focused on offshore operations — not exploration — in Africa, with its key asset being the producing Oveng-Okume-Ceiba oil complex offshore Equatorial Guinea, where Kosmos is a partner.

Mirzai also name-checked Carlyle Group, a private equity player that is backing up an E&P business led by former BP chief executive Tony Hayward that recently acquired the bulk of Energean's East Mediterranean portfolio.

Hayward met top Egyptian officials in London last week to discuss the company's investment plans, particularly for the Abu Qir gas complex."

[sword77] 13/12/2024 21:39

Anyone having access to this?

[xxnjr] 13/12/2024 15:46

Dunno how this helps Kosmos though! Proforma debt will be about $4.1bn for the combo. Production 150K boepd (assuming BP ever get GTA online). That's a lot of debt. So how will KOS fund GTA Phase II etc?

[xxnjr] 13/12/2024 14:57

The issue TLW have is weak and steadily getting weaker Ghana production coupled with lower OP means their assumptions about FCF generation have had to be scaled back dramatically which probably makes refinancing their not inconsiderable 2026 bonds all nigh but impossible.

[fraserdean] 13/12/2024 12:09

Thanks!

There must be a clever reason they're thinking of it, perhaps Tullow is in more trouble than is evident. Im no financial whizz.

At least they're waiting until after the tax ruling i guess.

Maybe flushing out other potential buyers too.

[adrian j boris] 13/12/2024 08:00

Kosmos Energy Limited Statement re Possible Offer
13/12/2024 7:00am
RNS Regulatory News

RNS Number : 9456P
Kosmos Energy Limited
13 December 2024


NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN WHOLE OR IN PART IN, INTO OR FROM ANY JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OF SUCH JURISDICTION.



THIS IS NOT AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF A FIRM INTENTION TO MAKE AN OFFER UNDER RULE 2.7 OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS (THE "CODE") AND THERE CAN BE NO CERTAINTY THAT AN OFFER WILL BE MADE, NOR AS TO THE TERMS ON WHICH ANY OFFER MIGHT BE MADE.



FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE



12 December 2024



Statement regarding a possible all-share offer for

Tullow Oil plc by Kosmos Energy Ltd.



Kosmos Energy Ltd. ("Kosmos" or the "Company") (NYSE: KOS) notes today's announcement by Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") (LSE: TLW) regarding a potential transaction involving Tullow and Kosmos and confirms that it is in very preliminary discussions with Tullow regarding a possible all-share offer by Kosmos for Tullow.

There can be no certainty that any offer will be made, nor as to the terms on which any offer might be made. Pursuant to Rule 2.5 of the Code, Kosmos reserves the right to vary the form and/or mix of the offer consideration and vary the transaction structure. A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate.

As stated in today's announcement by Tullow, in accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Kosmos is required, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 9 January 2025, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Tullow in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

[xxnjr] 12/12/2024 20:42

Could be & Hope not S77! Good and amusing summary fd. Worth an LoL!