Kier Share Discussion Threads

[marksp2011] 21/11/2018 16:43

Zico
You are right but I think that they have understood that hence the nil growth and margin/debt focus.

It is late in the day but it would be better to have a bit more civil engineering and a little less financial engineering

[zicopele] 21/11/2018 16:05

The Chairman, Chief Exec,FD and COO are all chartered accountants or in the case of COO have a finance background.

They can manufacture.profits out of thin air by overstatement of WIP.

Forget about price earnings ratios. They are meaningless and profits are meaningless.

Cash generation and move.importantly cash retention are the only important metrics.

The directors have increased dividends at a time when cash us being eroded.

Clearly their priorities are not aligned with the those of longterm shareholders whose equity is being eroded and who are importing risk into the company.

[azioni2] 21/11/2018 15:08

For what is worth, brokers' forecast are quoting low, medium and high targets of 995, 1,375 and 1,600 respectively. How far are we from a trend reversal?

[zicopele] 21/11/2018 10:51

Turnover will increase with inflation. £500m increase in turnover this year.

RNS my ass. Kier can't reduce debt even when it wants to.

That is why stock is falling and also why it can't pay bills on time.

Current management is consuming the company with high dividends.







.

[marksp2011] 21/11/2018 09:42

Zico

I agree the divi is too high

They are NOT trying to grow the business. There was a complete RNS on that topic. They think the business is big enough. They are trying to keep this scale and improve margins/reduce debt

There are plenty of negatives without you making them up :)

[zicopele] 21/11/2018 09:26

How can a construction company distribute 2p in every £1 of turnover to shareholders at a time when they also want to grow the business?

The dividend must be cut to future proof the balance sheet.

Will not happen with current management.

[fangorn2] 21/11/2018 09:22

Suffolk airbase will be the first permanent international site for US Air Force F-35s in Europe

The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has awarded a £160m contract to Kier VolkerFitzpatrick to get RAF Lakenheath ready for two squadrons of US F-35s.

[stewart64] 21/11/2018 09:00

Nomdeplume you kid not...top shorted share at 13.8% of shares in issue. On the plus side shorts could unwind fast and we get a rebound.

[nomdeplume] 20/11/2018 16:39

So long as there is an increase in short selling the share price will continue to go down. It cannot continue for ever and it will be interesting to see what happens when someone decides to close their short. This is not another Carillion and the latter's demise has to be good for Kier. I'm on Woodford's side in this argument.

[eriktherock] 20/11/2018 13:20

Expect support @ 732ish

[stewart64] 20/11/2018 11:37

Still think the Market is kind to Kier compared to some of the other domestics. Kier really proves a bird in the bush is worth two in the hand. There is zero equity once you discount intangibles, it has made precisely 100m after tax in five years...a p/e of forty. Those birds in the bush need to be coming in with something spectacular going forward. After all other domestics are at sixes and sevens ( literally on fwd p/e) with over 100% assets cover in some cases. Life assurance, banks, builders etc.

There again vodafone can get away with a 7 billion loss in six months and mounting debt with Market enthusiasm so I guess I just dont see the Emperor's clothes like everybody else.

[zicopele] 16/11/2018 08:54

I guess you will keep adding then Rimau

[rimau1] 16/11/2018 08:28

Nice update, debt focus paying off and strong order book, this is still discounted with the failing outsourcing tag and takes no account of the structural infrastrucrure growth drivers so I continue to add on any drops

[wipo1] 15/11/2018 21:51

Tough to call, I would consider buying around 750p

[mfhmfh] 15/11/2018 11:17

Peel Hunt today reiterates buy rating and 1,600p target price.

[azioni2] 14/11/2018 15:47

Woodford further increased KIER holdings

v

shorts position also increasing



Brokers consensus seems to favour Woodford

[rimau1] 05/11/2018 09:47

Yes, lucky timing. Road, Rail, housing shortages and Broadband investment is the bull case here, I am also long now in Hils and Renew for the same reasons. Both have also derated way too far.

[shauney2] 02/11/2018 10:07

Good timing rimau

From Shares Magazine

OUTSOURCING, CONSTRUCTION, INFRASTRUCTURE AND HOUSEBUILDING

A pledge to abandon the use of PFI contracts was arguably an easy one to make as there were none in the offing. The share prices of outsourcing groups Capita (CPI), Serco (SRP) and G4S (GFS) seemed largely unaffected by an end to austerity which theoretically implies there could be more work available from the public sector.

A boost in infrastructure spending on areas like roads and rail had been leaked in advance and had already given a lift to shares in construction-linked firms like Balfour Beatty (BBY), Costain (COST) and CRH (CRH) ahead of the Budget.

Kier (KIE) kept rising after the Budget thanks to its exposure to spending on broadband and its role as a key partner to local authorities across the UK with pothole repairs – where an extra £420m was earmarked.

Kier also has a housebuilding division so like peers such as Barratt Developments (BDEV) and Persimmon (PSN) there may have been some relief at the two-year extension of the Help to Buy scheme out to 2023. (TS)

[rimau1] 29/10/2018 09:06

I have taken a position here, looking for a budget boost in infrastructure spend. I am a long term investor and see significant upside from herewith potential short term pain which i am happy to navigate through. I agree that debt is a significant bear point but they are actively managing it and once we get through brexit i think this will rerate significantly.

[zicopele] 25/10/2018 10:10

Growing dividend and improving margins? Why would clients agree to fund increased margins for a captive contractor?

Kier cannot afford the existing dividend.

Worse still, all the top executives are accountants with no construction expertise.

[eriktherock] 25/10/2018 09:45

I was a holder for a while when Carillion when down in anticipation of the directors being able to negotiate the best of their live Contracts and thereby make the 'vision 2020' a more probable reality. They couldn't manage it.

[eriktherock] 25/10/2018 09:24

A glance at the chart from the beginning of last year would indicate the market's view of the company fundamentals.
The Dow chart for the same period maybe worth a look.

[marksp2011] 25/10/2018 09:00

jamski

That looks great. A chart with two random lines drawn on it. Thats the wonder of a method based on past values of the same variable.

At 787 it will be yielding 9% with a growing divi and improving margins.

I have seen several charts like this one for a variety of different stocks in the last few days. If the chart was driven by company fundamentals there MIGHT be some sense in it. The current share price action is being driven by a falling Wstreet. WStreet diverged from UKX 6 months ago and UKX never got the gains that SPX got. Now SPX is falling hard, UKX is tanking with it making UKX look like excellent value.

Too many sound stocks yielding 8% + and some decent ones at 10%+ - time for the stock pickers to move in

[jamski68] 24/10/2018 14:56

It's a short... targets down at 787

[eriktherock] 24/10/2018 10:05

Target update 732p > 678p > 418p