Kier Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 10/9/2023 20:03

This company's share price has gone sideways for about 5 years incredibly . Did it have share splits since it was over £10 ??

[itisonlymoney] 09/9/2023 19:25

Every building confirmed to have dangerous crumbling concrete in Greater Manchester
The government has been slammed as the crisis worsens



This is like a long running advert for kier construction new build/remedial contracts.

[not helping] 09/9/2023 12:45

iTisOnlyMoney - you cannot use a singular valuation ratio like P/E as a sole evaluator here -- relative P/E valuations, like many other ratios, are only applicable on an 'apples with apples' basis, and Kier, due to its continuing reliance on sizeable intra-period net debt (i.e. a much better reflection of running trading needs), cannot be directly compared to its market peers, hence why an EV working (rough as it is), is a better indicator.

Construction head contractor names, of all the industries, probably have the highest ability to manage cash positions due to the extreme T/O levels and the ability to manage creditor settlements at period-ends, hence why the market requires them to detail intra-period average balance levels. Yes, 'cash management' goes on in other industries -- but I'm not giving away how this is done on here, as there are restrictions nowadays on the levels of 'window dressing' allowed.

[itisonlymoney] 08/9/2023 17:04

shareprice late rise on the close is a hint from the market for next week.

[itisonlymoney] 08/9/2023 17:03

oh yeah, things are 'hidden' that only you can see. kiers finance costs are nothin like that. also avg monthly debt is coming down and down. you shld stop making sh1t up all the time.

[bathboy2] 08/9/2023 16:49

I reckon currently, kier take between 50 to 60mn a year just to service debt , of approx 550mn , which they call package debt hidden in the balance sheet , which gets completely forgotten about when they mention net debt and cash in hand , another debt owing to subbies the next day , IMO

[itisonlymoney] 08/9/2023 12:31

the failures of carillion and interserve changed kiers attitude. davies has embedded profit discipline. kier is making almost twice costains margin. thrusday will show if theye managed to keep it that high over the last 6 months. the growing cash position at kier is one sign that they may have succeeded. £60m in cash from £2.9m 12 months before.

[itisonlymoney] 08/9/2023 12:25

low borrowings for a £3bn business and net cash. you are trolling with repeated misinformation in every post.

[stutes] 08/9/2023 12:05

As for share price - let's wait till Thursday when K reports. K's turnaround depends on contracts from HMG, high debt, patient shareholders who have forsaken dividends.

[stutes] 08/9/2023 07:40

The main client for Construction sector is HMG - between HMG and BoE they have messed the economy and the sector likely to be hurt moat is Construction. They drive cost down, keep margin low by controlling work volumes. I think UK is at a crossroad where a nasty recession is about to hit the economy.

[itisonlymoney] 07/9/2023 21:03

what about all creditors paid and all debtors paying kier? trolls here seem to have double negative standards all the time.

[itisonlymoney] 07/9/2023 21:00

'no management of yr end position'. Give me a few examples of companies that don't bother managing their yr end? really, i'd love to know cos i've never met one.

net cash is cash minus borrowings. kier has net cash of £60m according to the trading update. that's cash minus short and long term borrowings. all borrowings.

i'm not talking about enterprise value. i'm talking about the simple p/e. if the business is making £100m, the market cap is only 3.8, a very ordinary comparative measure of the stock market value of the firm.

[not helping] 07/9/2023 16:08

iTisOnlyMoney -- the better and more accurate way to look at things is that K's market cap = ~£386m i.e. post debt deduction. I would venture that a normalised level of debt here = ~£300m (e.g. all creditors paid as due et al, with no 'management' of FYE position). This means the market is probably valuing the business at gross £686m, or somewhere around 6/7x earnings? (of course it depends on how you define 'earnings', as K's P&L accounts for the last few years have been very dirty due to constant provisions et al).

[itisonlymoney] 07/9/2023 11:01

annual report is out next thursday. this firm has outperformed management's expectations. forward price earnings ratio of 3.5, peel hunt expecting share price to practically double. let's see how it turns out. cld be fireworks on thurs.

[itisonlymoney] 07/9/2023 10:58

good that yr learning to read. you shld tell andrew davies what you think about Buckingham group. i'm sure he'll be devastated.

[bathboy2] 07/9/2023 05:58

After doing some reading, i think Kier could find that buying buckingham rail division, is a bad idea , some ' in hand 'works have already been moved to other contractors . They've paid over 9mn for a n approx 58mn turnover company, which was possibly loss making ,or at best on low margins and added another 180 members of staff to their wage roll. Does anyone know Kiers current headcount?? , I wouldn't be surprised if it is nearly up to the figure of a few years ago, when they were applauded for making a large percentage redundant.

[itisonlymoney] 05/9/2023 19:41

its not like the kier share price is high either. barely above the rights i ssue price of 83p from a couple of years back. kier management were forecasting 3.5% margin on something like £3bn turnover. thats £100m. if they've got net £60m it cld be theyve actually made that kind of money. what kind of price/earnings ratio shld kier be on? 10? 8? if they make £100m theyre on 3 atm. 3!!! cmon!!

[itisonlymoney] 05/9/2023 19:23

stutes, kiers cash position is relevant. a couple of years ago it was negative by millions, then last year it was £2.9m in cash, a couple of months back the ceo was reporting it as being positive £60m, ahead of forecasts because of strong constuction performance. its an improving story getting better with each set of results. you are just doommongering for the sake of it. even if theres a recesssion kier might well thrive. buckingham is en example. the lean firms will survive and pick up business and market share. wages will come down, inflation will fall. recessions arent always bad for everyone.

[bathboy2] 05/9/2023 17:33

You really must stop downing construction, yes it is a bit quieter, but it is by no means dire , there is pain in all markets , but cash is king , now is not the time to be in debt, don't be busy fools, and keep cashflow rolling,

[stutes] 05/9/2023 14:22

Correction relating to Birmingham road PFI

The article shows how the two remaining bidders face delays and with today's announcement could be delayed even more?

[stutes] 05/9/2023 13:57

How much of the £60m is subbie payment and how much K's? Cash at bank is not necessarily a sign the cash is K's- more of cashflow management.

I think equity prices over 18 months could well fall and banks will reduce lending to the construction/property sectors. Watch Sky news tonight and see the former Chief Economist at BoE interview- the big picture looks bad and thst isn't factoring in Brexit.

[itisonlymoney] 05/9/2023 12:10

more doommongering from you. buckingham grp goes bust, but kier has £60m in the bank and picks up the assets it wants at rock bottom prices. birmingham will pay its bills, and if it doesn't kier will stop work. road maintenance is not a big investment business.

[stutes] 05/9/2023 11:35

Today's news that Birmingham City Council is effectively bankrupt following an equal pay award, suggests new construction work will be delayed for awhile.
K signed a 3 Yr road maintenance deal with BCC only last month.

[stdyeddy] 05/9/2023 10:44

Meanwhile, the RAAC revelations continue to bring opportunity to Kier. There's a good piece from the BBC today showing how schools building investment was drastically cute by the current government in 2010 and that it now needs to ramp up building. Good news for our favourite construction firm, the UK's biggest schools builder:


RAAC: How long have we known about unsafe concrete in schools?

[stdyeddy] 05/9/2023 10:34

From Kier's trading update in July:

Net cash/debt
The Group is expected to generate positive adjusted operating cash flow for the year ended 30 June 2023, significantly above the Board's previous expectations. We also anticipate reporting a net cash position of c. £60m at the year-end, higher than the £2.9m reported in the prior year and above the Board's initial expectations.

The strong year end cash position was driven by a seasonal inflow of working capital, particularly in our Construction division, which experienced stronger than anticipated growth in the final quarter.