Kier Share Discussion Threads

[stdyeddy] 30/8/2023 20:20

Yeah, so you keep saying. Somehow, I don't think that's what you're really hoping for. You've been a bit silent while the Kier shareprice has been steadily rising. Too many positives to discuss?

Why do you never comment on any of the positives? See my comment on the main discussion board for Kier.

[stutes] 30/8/2023 16:54

It looks as if BoE is engineering a recession to correct its own mistake in managing the inflation rate. I hope K can manage interest bill and subbies going bust?

[bathboy2] 25/8/2023 18:38

The optimism coming from costain regarding the dividend is tracking across into Kier, will their hand be forced to offer a dividend, even though Kier are not on so much of an even keel as costain appears to be

[stutes] 25/8/2023 08:39

Construction News reports three stadium owners are awaiting news on bids for parts of Buckingham Group, it made me wonder if K's HS2 jv will bid for Buckingham's earthworks unit to mitigate the delay/cost in finding a replacement subcontractor?

[itisonlymoney] 24/8/2023 17:24

around 3000 constructon firms go broke in any year. obviously more have failed this yr. kier made itself lean before the current economic situation so will likely survive well. less competition in the industry ultimately means better margins. fewer construction employers means less wage inflation. we already know what keirs overall numbers are from the trading update. in line with 'management expectations'.

[stutes] 24/8/2023 15:38

FT reports 4280 construction firms have gone under. I think those left cannot up their margin in a falling market caused mainly by BoE hiking rates.
Costain and Bam reported lower profits. We shall see how K performs and if it closes the financial performance gap between K and Morgan Sindall

[julian1000] 24/8/2023 15:27

Just my own view, I don't see the point of people just posting negativity on the same share all the time. If you don't hold them just move on to one you do and leave the past behind. I'm staying holding these shares

[bathboy2] 24/8/2023 10:22

Kier has massive packaged borrowings/ debt , its in its accounts , over 500mn , i believe at the last count , when they come out with a lot of their figures, they conveniently forget this element, and make the grass look very green , as someone has said on here before, smoke and mirrors

[itisonlymoney] 24/8/2023 09:31

kier had net cash at yr end last yr, not net debt. like costain, net cash was defined as cash minus borrowings. kiers cash balance was not huge, just £3m but that was a yr ago and will have improved since then. that will be a big reveal to the market.

[catabrit] 24/8/2023 09:10

Kier has performed well YTD and provided it maintains discipline and good risk management when it comes to contracts, should do OK for shareholders. It’s a massive company with a lot of reach and I understand why some of you are bullish.

On the Costain point, I don’t think your analysis is correct. Both are in the fruit business but it doesn’t mean they’re both apples. Costain has a different revenue mix to Kier. I’m not here to state whether it’s better or worse as the market will draw its own conclusions over time. But Costain works in the infrastructure industry only - it’s not construction focused per se. Likewise, it has a significant (and growing) percentage of its revenue in consulting and project management which is far less risky and higher margin and thus more valuable. Costain also has no (zero, none, nada) fixed price contracts on its books vs some (albeit declining) for Kier. In addition, Costain has a net cash position of £132m (not net debt like Kier) vs a market cap of £145m. It - like many peers - is guiding for margin expansion over the coming years with a target of 4.5% in 2025 and 5% beyond. Whether it gets there is another thing but it’s guiding and management will be held accountable to this and are certainly incentivised via their LTIP.

One final point, Costain is way more inclusive and ESG proof at the executive board level than Kier and Balfour for that matter. Pretty much every major person at Kier is male. Costain has way more women in higher positions. Just look at the composition of the board or the various MDs or read the comments from the recent female hires - they like going to Costain because it’s not a male dominated hierarchy. There’s no glass ceiling for them.

I’m not saying it’s better - it’s just different and I think a lot of people misunderstand those differences and merely assume they’re the same because they’re “contractors”. This is lazy and potentially harmful to your wealth.

It’s the same with the alternative asset managers (Apollo, KKR, Brookfield, Ares, Blackstone, Carlyle etc). Everyone puts them in the same bucket but look closely and you’ll see that they all made different bets and they’ve all performed according to those bets.

Not trying to put you off Kier or ask you to change horses. Kier has huge potential to rebound. But to compare it to Costain without reference to the facts is wrong and misleading.

[itisonlymoney] 23/8/2023 18:40

costain claims to have cash but so does kier. also kier is making a much healthier margin than costain. costain is on about 2%. kier is making almost twice that and has a much bigger turnover. looks like you will get a surprise on 14 september.

[bathboy2] 23/8/2023 14:01

See it very unlikely a dividend at kier anytime soon , as their debt is still strangling them , costain are cash rich , making more profits than Kier on less than a quarter of the turnover ,

[itisonlymoney] 23/8/2023 12:21

a good trading update frm costain this morning and they are considering a dividend again. costain has been without a divi for the same period as kier.

no word on the costain update from stutes. he only likes to talk about negative stories like retailers going broke.

key messg from costain is that forecast positives for their business. very confident of them to reinstate a divi.

[zicopele] 22/8/2023 11:01

They will simply bypass Buckingham and pay direct.

Will withhold monies from Buckingham. Probably no cost to the contractors as long as over certification has not occurred.

Depends on the form of contract. If Option E, the subbies may lose historical monies.

If Option A and not overcertified, they may escape without a scratch.

Interesting that Option E is riskier for the guy at the bottom in this case or at least appears to be the case.

[stutes] 22/8/2023 08:00

How much will it cost K ?

[bathboy2] 21/8/2023 19:24

After what i hear today , certain circles are getting worried regarding kier , also they have jobs keep being put back. As with Buckingham, things can unravel really fast, what has gone before is immaterial, as with the future, the here and now is all what matters

[stutes] 21/8/2023 19:01

Kier has to break away from the label it is another Carillion. The former management of K have not been subject to FCA/FRC or MP investigation. However, the business needed an emergency rights issue and has not paid a dividend for years.

[stutes] 21/8/2023 16:38

Next month's results should provide shareholders with a clear judgement call as whether the Board is worth its pay? If they want top pay then the figures need to reflect that, K isntva Morgan Sindall and therefore remuneration should be significantly less IMO.

[zicopele] 21/8/2023 13:06

I have not been around since the fabulous interim update by Kier.

How has the stock been moving guys?

[stutes] 18/8/2023 14:38

Down 3.5p - it could be linked to August being a slow month for equities or September K reports; I think it is tied more to UK economic facto and biggest construction customer pulling more and more jobs - HS2, road schemes.

[bathboy2] 18/8/2023 11:08

Bad week for construction, even cash rich firms share prices are under pressure, but the heavily indebted companies, will definitely be thrust into the spotlight, and with the buckingham group seemingly very fast demise, this is added pressure. I can see this share carrying on this downward trend at present , and where the bottom is , is anyones guess , IMO

[stutes] 18/8/2023 08:58

Imho Henry and Buckingham are only the start of banks putting the squeeze on construction sector.

[julian1000] 17/8/2023 20:46

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/stockwatch-share-radar-could-rise-third-ii528639

[stutes] 17/8/2023 16:13

The fallout of Carillion's demise is still to be addressed, I think K's problems over last 6yrs should be investigated by FCA, FRA and MPs. K's rights issues, audits and AGMs should be the starting point of any Inquiry. In my opinion if former directors are found to have misled shareholders then they should be sent to Prison

[stutes] 17/8/2023 12:25

I think the economy is starting to tank and banks are getting tough with firms generally - little headroom for losses.