Kier Share Discussion Threads

[not helping] 17/7/2023 12:42

@bathboy -- I think it's a share worth holding but it's at least a 2-year play, the problem being to identify when 'lift-off' is likely e.g. 1- when core debt is largely eradicated to repair the structural weakness in the B/S (and reduce refinancing risk)2- when DV payments can start to flow on a sustainable basis. On this point, the decision here rests with the NEDs (many of them) as Exec Management are conflicted by their very generous LTIPs. I remain of the view that a DV won't be seen until Q4-24 at earliest, this assuming retained cash in FY23 will be as expected. IMHO, they should not reward equity from using debt, and we all know the expected June 30th net cash B/S report will be 'heavily managed'. The suggested backcloth of struggling subbies could also act to drain cash from Kier, as it'll be in their interest to keep the subbies afloat/healthy. Of course, all this assumes no material surprises, which would appear the case, as they would have had to report to market via an update if there were ('see it, say it' rules) -- although on this they have leeway as they don't give strong forward guidance, the latter common across the sector.

[stutes] 17/7/2023 07:48

K could be faced with a logjam problem as well as HMG rescheduling workload to keep to overall budget figures.

[dht4] 16/7/2023 11:07

hxxps://www.building.co.uk/news/analysts-expect-kier-to-resume-dividend-in-2024/5119322.article

[bathboy2] 15/7/2023 19:16

Can't see they will re-instate the dividend, for a long time , the debt pile will still be too large , and now they are refinancing at higher rates , it must be hurting

[stutes] 15/7/2023 12:40

I hope K is fixed, 6yrs + of no dividend shows to me the the overall hit to the balance sheet due to past strategy.
The timing K's recovery coincides with a possible macro recession which could result in K not reinstating the dividend?

[stutes] 14/7/2023 13:31

HMG having agreed to pay public workers 6.5%, school budget underspend helping to fund the additional cost. Looks as if school capital projects could be delayed as a result.Less work from Government departments adding to negative sentiment in construction sector.

[gixxer1] 14/7/2023 09:22

I anticipate positive news from the K trading update that will be released on 19th July.

[stutes] 14/7/2023 07:59

How many more firms will need to hike their provisions? I think this is Construction sector's version of the Banking sector's PPI - years of provisions. IMO HMG should pay the bill for approving the fire insulation.

[stutes] 12/7/2023 08:54

The news over Thames Water tapping its shareholders for £700m while positive shows those firms in debt are suffering from higher rates. I think construction firms need to be very careful in working for clients with high debt levels.

[stutes] 11/7/2023 07:59

Another rate hike; Graham's result show a drop in profit margin. The squeeze is on for construction firms. HMG/ Regulators agreed or set inflation busting increases in tax/Broadband/energy , source of inflation

[stutes] 09/7/2023 14:26

If you compare the remuneration package of K's CEO with Mr Morgan at Morgan Sindall, Mr Davies seems to be over paid based on profitability, eps, dps and consistency of results?

The City should cut K's remuneration scheme.

[stutes] 07/7/2023 16:25

This month's trading update, ahead of September Results, needs to address the big value discount and the recovery of some or all of the value destruction under past management.

[stutes] 07/7/2023 11:56

The strength of a construction firm's balance sheet is set to come more in focus as the predicted recession hits the UK and work should be directed to the stronger finance firms?

[stutes] 06/7/2023 12:32

High Street banks are setting 2yr mortgage rates at or above 7%; banks appear to have lost confidence in BoE and are acting independently.
The only outcome, IMO, is a recession.

[bathboy2] 06/7/2023 08:34

2 weeks from trading update , share price roughly the same as last year , so at least stable , if results are good it will pitch up a bit ,but not as wild a rise, some will claim on here, but if there is any hint of a fall back and mention of refinancing costs, and any uncertainty going forward, the share will be hammered, also with no dividend possibly, it is not a share to own IMO

[stutes] 05/7/2023 10:50

Another project pulled; the economics is turning against building projects - inflation, taxation, interest rates, lending policy, etc.

The BoE/HMG have messed up the economy.

[stutes] 04/7/2023 14:13

Why are builders paying the bill?

[stutes] 03/7/2023 16:38

I wonder why Carillion's demise hasn't pushed margin% up over 4%?

Should the authorities look at K's issues over last 7yrs and former directors?

[stutes] 03/7/2023 11:13

Turner Townsend are reported warning of a future downturn in construction sector, linking falls in concrete, bricks, sand and gravel as a warning sign.

Interest rates, inflation, jobs pulled all add to the negative spin .

[stutes] 29/6/2023 09:48

The return from fit out business makes me wonder why construction firms generally don't seem to generate high returns from work undertaken after the building is watertight?

[bathboy2] 28/6/2023 17:40

Kier do some work on the big infrastructure projects on lot 2 of Thames water amp7 framework , depending on what happens, galliford try seem to be most in the firing line , if they can't pay their bills , they are on most of the 7 lots let in 2020 , to run until 2030

[stutes] 28/6/2023 12:13

If TW collapse how will it affect the construction sector and what about other indebted firms?

[stutes] 27/6/2023 16:14

If Economists are right in forecasting 6.25% base rate will we see real rates at 7%×'?