Kainos Share Discussion Threads

[belfast_child] 27/8/2021 16:17

"You will get high returns,
when the Belfast Child sings again".

[sogoesit] 27/8/2021 11:24

I think that's a good point "What my head can't deal with here".
I think this is the issue since there's an emotional reaction rather than a rational reaction... it's a form of cognitive dissonance.

All a high PE means, and believe me 50 is not high in my experience, in essence is that you are buying growth more numbers of years ahead, or at a faster rate, than other more lowly rated stocks so that you expect the PE to adjust to the EPS in the foreseeable future. Strangely, this is where "past performance" IS a good "guide to future performance" in contradiction to the usual warning mantra and provides a rational base line for growth (ie execution risk is dramatically reduced).

Of course the risks are that that growth performance tails-off and, certainly, in time it will end but those "whiffs of disappointment" apply to all stocks, don't they?
In my experience, from the Dotcom era, this risk is mitigated by growth investing since, when it ends, having gained a few 100% will you be worried at a 50% loss, or hopefully less, from the top? Surely enough time to exit? The upside reward far outweighs the downside risk.

The major risk, 'tho with these stocks currently is not their micro (business) performance but macro interest rate risks.
After all, what is the Discount Factor to apply in valuation when sovereign interest rates are 0% or negative? And what happens when that changes?

[sunshine today] 27/8/2021 11:07

Run the slide rule over a minnow in the same sector.

Just read the Annual report.

Triad Group PLC

They have plans and more importantly cash, to do what’s been achieved here over the last 6 years.

We all have very different approaches to investment.

What my head can’t deal with here, is any possible whiff of disappointment at any stage going forward. ( Any stock on a PE of 50).

That does not mean it’s expensive though so long as the growth shows up.

Good luck and we’ll done.

[sogoesit] 27/8/2021 10:58

Indeed, price, and price action, are the signals.

"Top choppers"... love it... hahaha.
(I own CRDA and accumulated a few weeks ago and "top choppers" were described as "smart" investors when they thought a P/E of 37x was expensive! Besides, there are growth stocks in the US that trade at P/Es in the 100's times so its all relative).

It should be logically clear that if you buy a good growth stock (compounder) you are always likely to be buying at a top. This seems to elude some "growth" investors but maybe I'm missing the essence of the price action in a growth stock. Who knows!

[davr0s] 26/8/2021 18:51

Yep I'll keep riding this trend until it ends. There will be endless analysis to sell, naysaying, top choppers, too much PE and all the normal reasons to bail but in the end only one thing pays and matters and that is price

[someuwin] 26/8/2021 18:46

Good chart showing the 'stickiness' of the KNOS business...

[chuckster1] 25/8/2021 21:40

Long time from I have posted- going back to 2015/16 when the share price was just a twinkle in our eyes. How time zooms in and what a share this has been. I think I said it many years ago.
Look at the Management & Directors - still top class.
Institutions buyers as opposed to sellers.
Cash rich in a niche market with barriers to entry.
High P/E historic, results should hopefully bring that back a fair amount.
Look at the Directors sales over the years - small in relation to their total holdings.
Recent sale is by a connected party, we have no idea what it was for, could be tax, could be a string of properties- it’s none of our business all we need to concern ourselves with is the FD is still in situ with a shed load of stock. He has a fine reputation built up at Galen and now at Kainos. Galen was an interesting story and if any of you are N Ireland Investors will likely know the story. I see no reason to have any fear over this small sale.
Investor or punter- 2 different animals
I recall seeing posts not long ago saying the stock was overvalued. Sometimes the “Wee Notion” theory works. Covid has been a total catastrophe for the world however it has accelerated the business model for Kainos by a few years as many corporates and government are using them for transformation and efficiency.
I haven’t a clue if market makers still exist. They used to read these bulletin boards. They had many ways of shaking the tree and weeding out a few sellers or enticing a few buyers depending on how they were running their position and book.
Sometimes it’s fear and greed that drive the markets.
I’m a bit rusty on ‘closed periods’ when directors, senior personnel can sell or buy- maybe these recent sales had to do with entering one of these periods, who knows and who really cares.
It’s a good company, I’m not an employee or an ex -employee just someone who wants to make a few quid for retirement.
On the opening day you could have bought this stock @ 180p about 5/6 years ago.
On that note I will disappear for another 5 or 6.
As ever folk have different timescales, level of risk and patience. We all have access to charts and research so we all must make our own decision and calls.

[montyhedge] 25/8/2021 19:14

Bell ringing moment to sell, when a director does.

[someuwin] 25/8/2021 09:09

One week to trading update.

[sogoesit] 23/8/2021 22:22

Not surprising it’s profitable since it deals with government, commercially incompetent, and the NHS, managerially incompetent.

My investment case is that it’s taking my taxpayer money and making a handsome profit from the rent.
Looking for £28 by mid-2022 so that I can pay my green energy bills.

[johnrxx99] 18/8/2021 10:14

Bloody hell, can't it slow down a bit to let me buy some more. I hate these verticals.

[someuwin] 18/8/2021 08:59

Two weeks to trading update.

[ali47fish] 12/8/2021 17:40

director selling a chunk

[someuwin] 12/8/2021 10:38

Trading update in less than 3 week's time...

FY22 interim trading update - 1 September 2021

[someuwin] 12/8/2021 08:41

....Also, from the above link.

"In June, the Belfast-headquartered firm also kicked off a £54.5m two-year engagement to support a digital transformation programme at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs."

[someuwin] 11/8/2021 22:20

Surprised they haven't RNS'd this deal...

HM Passport Office picks £50m data transformation partner

Written by Sam Trendall on 10 August 2021 in News

Kainos awarded potential five-year deal to work on organisation’s data products...

https://www.publictechnology.net/articles/news/hm-passport-office-picks-%C2%A350m-data-transformation-partner

[jomool001] 11/8/2021 16:04

moving with the market

[someuwin] 11/8/2021 15:56

Wonder if there's some kind of corporate action imminent?

[belfast_child] 21/7/2021 19:46

Couldn't agree more Dav. See you at £20 for another chat.

[davr0s] 21/7/2021 19:21

Yes 100% - if growth can be maintained it will go much further than any valuation analysis would say. I trade this scenario all the time and spend a lot of effort swotting off those claiming these shares are overvalued

[davr0s] 21/7/2021 19:18

In your opinion, and I beg to differ

[youluckyfellow] 21/7/2021 17:11

When you think FD Technologies PLC is double the price of Kainos, with a similar offering.

[belfast_child] 21/7/2021 16:06

I’d agree that 1450p is actually a fair price looking at the basics, but people are investing because of the potential growth, not just in the UK but around the world. When you consider the number of offices in various countries that are continuously hiring you might consider 1450p very cheap today (if you ever see that price again). Look to the future Monty – it’s green (or a big green dot anyway).

[montyhedge] 20/7/2021 16:15

1450p about fair, but even that price way to high.

[davr0s] 19/7/2021 19:38

Haven't looked at valuations at all for years and I do just fine. People tend to wheel the argument out when a share price goes higher than they were expecting or they sold out only to see it go higher. Like on Dechra (lol) where the same argument has been made