Just Share Discussion Threads

[alex4141] 13/8/2020 10:25

"Numis analyst Nick Johnson believes that Just’s stronger than expected capital position, together with the potential to reduce its balance sheet exposure to UK property prices – one of the ‘levers’ referred to – ‘should give the market increased confidence that Just will be able to absorb macro volatility that could arise over the next 12-18 months’, which could in turn unlock ‘significant equity value upside from current low levels.’"

[18bt] 13/8/2020 09:49

Cameron, a lot of the increase in equity results from the reduction in the discount rate - that is very unlikely to happen again. IFRS profits in an insurer move up and down with the discount rate. However, having listened to the analysts' call, there should be a good chance that there will be a final dividend declared. But let's see what the analysts put in their forecasts after private discussions with the CFO.

[18bt] 13/8/2020 09:46

For interest, analysts on the call were more than in March. Included:
Gordon Aiken, RBC
Oliver Steel, Deutsche
Louise Miles, Morgan Stanley
Andrew Crean, Autonomous Research
Barry Cornes, Panmure
Nick Johnson, Numis
Ashik Musaddi, JPM

[18bt] 13/8/2020 09:34

Analysts question from Morgan Stanley how they would use increased capital between new business, paying down debt and restarting dividends. Reply was that they wuld talk to their largest investors in deciding priorities. And then in answer to a JPM question, the implication was that, absent COVID uncertainty, they would be confident in their capital position - to me that means, they are confident, but the regulator is still imagining the COVID scenarios.

[18bt] 13/8/2020 09:12

With the share price rise today, they would be cemented in the FTSE250 if it continued until the next review date. It's 225 out of 250 and there are 5 Cos in the SmallCap which currently have a MCap above £600m.

[18bt] 13/8/2020 09:05

Analysts presentation. Emphasis on:
- Still further capital generation opportunities: there is a new slide 5 on those future options;
- Before management actions, broke even on capital generation, expecting this to continue in H2 and increase generation next year
- Working further to reduce the SII property exposure - new slide on this and commmentary
- Expect NB capital strain to be kept under 4% in future
- The hedging arrangements resulted in very little movement in "Economic movements" in capital generation
- Expect expense overruns of c£20m pa to be eliminated by end of 2021 - that also benefits capital generation
- Gave further details on GIFL longenvity assurance deal - increases NB GIFL RI to 90%
- Targeting £13m pa reduction in management expenses 2020 to 2021
- Expect fully to comply with "new" ERM solvency regime by end 2021 by management actions - (i.e. don't need any new capital? - my comment)

Essentially, there are 3 priorities, capital, capital and capital. But they have gone out of their way to explain their risk management and hedging on the asset portfolio.

[18bt] 13/8/2020 08:21

Rather odly, often it has been the analysts not on the calls who have been negative. Will see who turns up to day!

[nav_mike] 13/8/2020 07:39

Be interesting to see if analyst coverage turns positive after these results - been pretty negative/neutral recently despite pretty good newsflow

[18bt] 13/8/2020 07:30

Mike ... albeit from a very subdued sp! Will be interesting to see the follow through and the volume figures; and SLA not wrecking the trend by selling further into it.

[nav_mike] 13/8/2020 07:18

Makes a change..... v good results actually being met with the appropriate market response

[alex4141] 13/8/2020 07:15

Impressive update with the super low interest rates continuing to stay for the foreseeable future :). “Retirement products provider Just Group said it expected 'significantly higher' sales in the second half of the year after reporting that first-half profit more than doubled driven by investment and economic profits owing to the fall in interest rates. For the six months ended 30 June 2020, pre-tax profit rose to £305m from £125m as revenue fell 11% to £1.8bn. Profit was also boosted by improved in-force return offsetting lower new business profit from reduced sales, the company said. Gross premiums written fell 10% to £746.2m, reflecting the group's planned reduction in new business volumes in order to reduce new business capital strain. Solvency coverage ratio was estimated at 145% as at 30 June 2020, up from 141% seen at the end of last year. Looking ahead, sales was expected to be 'significantly higher' in the second half of the year than the first, the company said.“

[scrapheap] 13/8/2020 06:57

Especially in todays market where a company is dividend paying has become so much more valuable to investors..

[theoldcodger] 13/8/2020 06:40

No dividend:

"The Group continues to manage its capital position and outlook following the significant regulatory changes relating to equity release mortgages. Taking this into consideration with the present economic uncertainty, the Board are not recommending the payment of an interim dividend."

[scrapheap] 13/8/2020 06:30

I may have missed it but is there any mention of a dividend at some point in these interims...

[nav_mike] 12/8/2020 10:38

Currently in the process of breaking the short term downtrend that has been in place since early June

Needs a break and hold above 52 to make things interesting, but I guess all will depend on the wording/content of tomorrows news

[18bt] 12/8/2020 07:52

Sensible if somewhat unexciting choice as a Chair. He definitely ticks the insurance understanding box (understanding actuaries, reinsurance and funding in particular), has a record of accepting a sensible offer for Novae and is known as a professional chair. Perhaps that's what the company needs, but is he the man to shake up the rest of the Board and to get real rigour into the strategy? We'll see.

In the circumstances JUST was in, he probably had the great merit of being available immediately.

[scrapheap] 10/8/2020 12:27

Sooner or later Just will disappear... now only £0.5bn market cap. Who knows who will take them out though and at what price.

I've not placed new business with them in ages as they 'just' don't come up well in pricing which is no doubt due to their capital focus.

[18bt] 10/8/2020 09:22

Interims on Thursday. Some small trading in advance.

[nav_mike] 21/7/2020 15:02

2.36m share trade @ 46.75

Guessing worked sell judging by recent weakness and the dumping continues

[nav_mike] 20/7/2020 14:35

Thought I had got my timing right, but looks like SL (or someone else) is still unloading

[18bt] 14/7/2020 18:03

Mike, not for a few months. The 2019 accounts cover what happens in the event of stresses to the property assumptions.

[nav_mike] 14/7/2020 16:36

Thanks 18BT - think I will go back 200 posts and read up

Are the ex-regulators still around? The ones who seemed to hate JUST with an absolute passion?

[18bt] 14/7/2020 15:57

Mike, I suspect the drip of holdings from SL Aberdeen is real cause of weakness.

last year they had a trading update on 24/7, but nothing other than interims on 13/8 (last year 4/9) shown on the financial calendar.