Just Share Discussion Threads

[scrapheap] 18/3/2020 16:15

FTSE 250 stocks getting slaughtered...

[scrapheap] 16/3/2020 17:00

I know these are unusual times but would have expected some broker research updates post results - nothing per the HL website....

[18bt] 13/3/2020 15:39

Have now listened to the webcast attached to the presentation. It is very apparent they have moved quickly to start generating capital, to early adopt the regulatory change, adjust down the capital cost of regulatory change by c£50m and continue to develop new products. They seem to have plenty more actions on capital. On the disappointing side, there is no commitment on dividend, but when you start flowing through some of their guidance, it should start throwing off capital in 2020, some of which could be used to restart the dividend. The webcast and slides are always technical, but it creates an impression.

[18bt] 13/3/2020 14:22

Spectacular gain today. Presumably positive brokers notes or someone speculating on corona virus deaths benefitting it - it’s a bit more complex than that.

[scrapheap] 12/3/2020 09:47

There is reference to the risk of further regulatory challenges so I guess not wanting to raise hopes on the dividend front in case another capital hit is needed.

[robsy2] 12/3/2020 08:04

So broadly heading in the right direction.

[18bt] 12/3/2020 07:24

Great result on capital generation, offset by no return to the dividend and no indication when it might be. Substantially de-risked regulatory-wise.

[scrapheap] 11/3/2020 11:21

Results tomorrow then...

[scrapheap] 11/3/2020 07:14

More which firms are less exposed than others to this crisis. Banks obv are for example.

[18bt] 10/3/2020 15:10

The care business would be exposed to pandemic and a lot of ERM business will be in the high risk groups, which would have a hedging effect as mortgages would not last so long. But I don’t think JUST or any of its shareholders would want to benefit from a pandemic.

[scrapheap] 09/3/2020 14:05

Great analysis BT.

Just's type of business it writes is presumably not the most (negatively) exposed to a pandemic either...

[18bt] 06/3/2020 11:14

Good spot - PTP consensus has drifted up but consensus EPS has drifted down. There are 2 key things for me in the results: 1) They reaffirm that they will be capital generative by 2022 (confirmed in the HY results) and, connected, 2) That dividend payments restart (0.8p forecast rising to 1.1p relating to 2020).

Just re-read the AKG Solvency report which is on the JUST web-site. This is the nub of the capital position;

"Just has estimated that a change in the regulatory treatment of lifetime mortgages will lead to a capital impact of £350m. Of this, £70m has already been implemented, £150m arises from PS31/18 and £130m from PS19/19. This is being phased in during the 3 year period between 31/12/18 and 31/12/21. To offset this, Just has already executed £118m via a management action in H2 2019 (the DB reinsurance transaction [a transaction with RGA to increase the existing longevity reinsurance programme in relation to the post Solvency II DB liabilities written during the 3 ½ years to 30 June 2019.]), and is working on other management actions to offset the balance. Just has stated that it would continue to review the need for further capital and its optimal mix, including consideration of the refinancing of PLACL's Tier 2 debt of £100m, which has a call option in March 2020 and in October 2019 it issued £125m of Tier 2 capital, primarily to refinance this. Just states that this means 'we can focus on our key objective of being organically capital generative by 2022'. A £200m revolving credit facility remains undrawn and available to support the business." We should also expect to see some further growth in H2 over H1 in in-force capital generation.

L&G reported growth in individuual GIFL sales and it will be interesting to see whether JUST has seen the same. The other thing I will be looking closely at is the elimination of trading losses at Hub Financial Solutions. The affinity business with e.g. Phoenix Life, Prudential, Royal London, Scottish Widows, Standard Life and Zurich needs to make money on a self standing basis, nit just by securing profitable GIFL sales.

Lastly, Andy Parsons will have had 2 months getting to know the business. His take on things will be closely watched.

[scrapheap] 27/2/2020 11:14

It's an expensive capital source to get rid of so that's got to a be a positive at least

[18bt] 27/2/2020 08:12

I wonder whether the redemption of the PLACL sub notes helps clear the way for the sale of PLACL (which is a closed fund)? There are plenty of buyers and it has always been an option, but one which I understand Rodney Cook blocked. Pure speculation on my part ... no knowledge

[18bt] 15/2/2020 13:53

Just have really taken their eye of the Care market in the last few years - which was extraordinary as they had market leadership by a mile and it is highly profitable. However, with imminent clarification on the Govt's approach to the "care funding crisis", may be having another player with some clout to publicise the options is not too bad a thing. The market is ripe for expanding from c£100m pa to 3-4x that.

[scrapheap] 15/2/2020 10:51

I see L&G are launching an immediate needs care annuity solution to market - along with the existing 2 insurers, Aviva and Just.

So a little clue they might not be about to snap up Just then perhaps?

[robsy2] 12/2/2020 15:13

This is firming up well. Looks like we will make 100p this year. It wasn't so long ago that 150-200p seemed possible.

[robsy2] 04/2/2020 18:59

That would fo nicely. I wonder if we’ll 100p again this year

[18bt] 04/2/2020 07:47

Prelims now showing on the JUST website as scheduled on 12 March. Looks like they are not going to do a trading update - so assume mkt forecasts of around £194m PTP and 12.9p EPS are correct.

[18bt] 03/2/2020 17:51

A sensible NED appointment, but it would have been nice if they had been accompanied by one at least of the older guard standing down. Anyway, finished above 80p - we'll see whether it holds.

[18bt] 24/1/2020 09:12

Seems to have bounced of a new 70p support level. I find the chart quite encouraging for more gains from here. I'm sure it will face renewed resistance at the 80p placing level.

[kilobyte2] 15/1/2020 18:09

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BCRX1J15/

[drleon] 15/1/2020 17:27

Mad CS analyst - CS as a research house prefers property insurers and undermines Lifers. On the other hand, CS group owns 4.5% of Just!! Yes I get it - research is independent of investment decision making- why do you undermine life companies? I get that toot has a lot of potential and at 5-6x PE is priced favourably to the upside.

Millennium fund LLP at NY has taken a big short on Just !

[18bt] 14/1/2020 12:09

Decided to top up on the Credit Suisse induced dip yesterday as the momentum still feels good and it remains very under-valued on conventional life assurance metrics.