Just Share Discussion Threads

[nav_mike] 14/7/2020 15:50

Bought back into these last week after a lengthy absence - initially not looking for much more than a trade up to 62 so havent caught up on this board

I see the discount to NAV is as huge as ever, but I get the reasons for that. Is it the expected drop in house prices that has caused recent weakness as last years results seem to suggest management are doing the right things?

[cjac39] 08/7/2020 07:46

there is a holder reducing presently with floor price of 48. until they stop the flow will be negative around this level.

hpi is negative but well priced into shares at this level.

[finkie] 08/7/2020 07:38

Will the governments housing incentive measures kickstart the market and mean the older generation can feel comfortable unlocking the value in their homes whist remaining in them. This also has a benefit of reducing the burden of inheritance tax which can only be a good thing for those affected, house in the south of England worth £1m+ why not spend some of it ahead of the inevitable. I don’t think the marketing of these schemes is up to scratch, older people don’t get them always, they feel they are ‘selling’; their house to someone else who could then kick them out this needs working on I feel.

[finkie] 07/7/2020 10:57

Seems weak atm house prices affect the business?

[18bt] 16/6/2020 09:22

Life assurers have shown a bit of strength in past few days and especially today. I presume that is linked to the Fed which 'will purchase corporate bonds to create a corporate bond portfolio that is based on a broad, diversified market index of U.S. corporate bonds’, the central bank said. This is the vast majority of JUST's investments and they are overweight BBB. Admittedly, a lot of these are GBP-based, but the Fed money is likely to overflow out of USD assets into liquid bonds in other currencies.

I was slightly concerned when I saw that AVIVA had flagged an "adjustment for potential future credit rating downgrades (full letter downgrade on 10% of BBB rated bonds and 5% on bonds rated A and above) in our UK annuity corporate bond portfolio" in their recent trading staement, which would have had a big effect on JUST if replicated. But a Fed put is very helpful. Off topic, but AVIVA has little reason not to reinstate its dividend.

[3rd eye] 21/5/2020 08:27

Just had a few bob in JUST GROUP.........a bit morbid but with older people suffering more than younger people they are going to need funds in one way or another and the government on evidence seems to have just forgotten them.......well until all the pressure from others at the start of this week. Think about going forward and carehomes are putting up fees hugely.


Just Group describe themselves as per below.


The Group is an established provider of retirement income products and services to individual and corporate clients. We positively disrupt markets where we can become a leader, deliver great outcomes for customers and high-quality returns for shareholders.

hxxps://www.justgroupplc.co.uk/about-us/our-business/what-we-do

[scrapheap] 14/5/2020 07:32

Reassuring statement. Sensible care annuity change re 12m protection as otherwise that market is closed

[18bt] 14/5/2020 06:42

Reasonably reassuring trading update this morning. The market may have got nervous about falls in property prices, but there is quite a big buffer, particularly now that they are capital generative in new business. It's playing its part for society in not furloughing staff and adjusting care policies to extend "capital protection".

[18bt] 02/5/2020 17:54

Have now had a chance to reader the SFCR, which contains all sorts of solvency disclosures and splits out the balance sheets of JR, Partnership Life and the other Group companies. What is striking is how comparatively over capitalised PLACL is - 178%. And this should only increase - they disclose that they are going to bring PLACL into the SII internal model (once PRA-appproved). The only reason for doing this is that it is beneficial vs the standard formula capital in which PLACL currently sits. It is quite possible that gain would allow a further increase in SII solvency even after providing for the last £80m of capital changes from the PRA changes.

It's then a question of whether they can generate further capital e.g. by another property hedge. That might be more difficult until the UK property market re-starts, but if they can, a dividend possibly comes into play - market forecasts are still for a 1p dividend in 2020.

[18bt] 02/5/2020 17:45

And I should have added that they disclosed a c£250m DB de-risking partnership (where most of the capital is provided by reinsurers) with the year end in March. The accounts disclosed that they are using ERMs to back the deal. What isn't quite clear is what the structure is for these ERMs - presumably they have been sourced by JUST, but are sitting on the balance sheet of the reinsurer partner.

[18bt] 29/4/2020 12:43

And this from LCP last week on the size of the market this year:

[18bt] 29/4/2020 12:21

And that is followed by this one:



Probably the reason for the share price increase

[18bt] 29/4/2020 11:58

This has appeared on linkedin, showing that some DB de-risking deals still going on for JUST


Tim Coulson

Defined benefit de-risking through buy-in and buy-out at Just

We're delighted to have helped NG Bailey complete two buy-ins. Their Engineering and IT Services divisions formed part of the 1,000 strong team that worked 24-hours a day to complete the 750-bed NHS Nightingale Hospital North West from scratch in a grade-2 listed building.
#nhsnightingale

[cjac39] 24/4/2020 16:10

this research is nonsense. ive read it and its rubbish. they just throw out some wild assumptions that are made up and unlikely to manifest. sure if you assume worse defaults ever and property price meltdown it impacts capital but doesnt remove the fact jrp has a net bs value of > £1.5bln. who cares if they get closer to less margin over scr

[scrapheap] 24/4/2020 15:51

Won't have helped

Just Group: Deutsche Bank downgrades to sell with a target price of 55p (was hold and 70p in Jan).

[cjac39] 24/4/2020 12:44

sfcr out today. solvency improved to 143%. ltm hedges now £900mln. reduces risk to house prices by 12% of total book. generating enough capital to cover tmtp runoff. as before, super cheap at this level .

[scrapheap] 09/4/2020 09:22

Dividends - what are they?? :)

[18bt] 09/4/2020 09:10

RBC cuts price target to 130p - so share price falls to 53! Swathes of broker cuts across insurance sector as they take account of deferred dividends. My personal view is that in the life sector, these are dividends deferred rather than cancelled forever, unless the Government somehow decides to nick the excess capital

[18bt] 07/4/2020 15:45

SLA sold just over 1%, probable cause of weakness in last 48 hours

[cjac39] 03/4/2020 15:36

ive reinvested here. had sold out on conservative victory night but this has come back to a good level. capital was restated in march at 141% ie its not moving around that much. life insurers don't hold too much risk in their credit portfolios being mainly Inv grade and the matching adjustment rules insulate them from spreads moving. also, if interest rates and spreads move a lot they can still recalc their tmpt which adjusts for both although in JRP case they have hedged int rates anyway.

on an ifrs basis their profit will fall. but also dont forget wider spreads help db pension schemes as they use the AA rate in their discoutning so bulk deals will accelerate at some point when the actuaries are back to work. and in any case ifrs profit is somewhat meaningless.

ive always thought they should sell off the new biz engine and close to new biz and run it off anyway but this will reprice the returns you can get on capital i suspect

[scrapheap] 03/4/2020 15:15

Bit fed up of all these share awards for nil consideration. How is that a performance incentive?

[scrapheap] 01/4/2020 16:18

Fair points. I think point 1 is the most concerning at the moment as that's a more immediate risk as the economic 'shock' starts to filter through businesses.

[robsy2] 01/4/2020 10:42

I'm out. There are two problems 1)The bond market and impairment of assets there. The sensitivity analysis in the last accounts flag up impairment charges on the widening of credit spreads and it looks like a lot of impairment could be coming down the line. Also not just widening spreads but a spiking default rate as well.
2)There is the whole assumption of a 3.8% annual rate of increase in property prices and the threat to the Solvencey II cushion if that assumption needs adjusting downwards. I guess it is not unreasonable to see this being adjusted downwards. These together could mean they need more statutory capital and they don't seem ithat strong now so I see problems.
The NAV of 180p is great and they should be able to do well but in the short term, they, like other insurers,face serious headwinds and they are not that well capitalised.
I exit with sizeable losses and wish those who remain good luck.

[robsy2] 31/3/2020 08:33

another one today . No idea who is writing them

Just Group PLC (10:29:26)

Profit forecast increased from £219m to £307m (Forecast year ending 12/20)

[robsy2] 26/3/2020 07:26

On 24.03 there was a broker upgrade.
EBIT 2020(31.12.20) up from 156m to 255m giving EPS of 14.7 and prospective PER of 3.5.