Just Share Discussion Threads

[18bt] 22/10/2019 06:36

Pausing for breath before it attempts to break through resistance at c73p?

[cjac39] 18/10/2019 16:30

yes flat vol but they do have positive fwd price which some find theoretically unsound but i think is swamped by vol assumption. if you model out what 13% vol can do (13%*sqrt T) it makes for some dramatic ranges of where property can go but they also asssume 3.25% hpi i think

i guess this afternoon was bookies saying boris will lose...

[drleon] 18/10/2019 15:23

The PRA and their team of technical experts

[chucko1] 18/10/2019 07:35

cjac39, I take it that that 13% is a flat vol. for all 10-30 years? And without any mean reversion parameter used in evaluating the "option"?

Who dreamed that one up?

[cjac39] 18/10/2019 07:25

whilst painful short term it has to be a sustained collapse in house prices for 10-30 years rather than a short term blip and they are reserved anyway. 13% vol assumptions in pricing house price options, notwithstanding the argument over the forward price used for house prices, is really quite some conservative assumption to use. realised historic vol is closer to 6%....

[scrapheap] 18/10/2019 07:05

Oh the NNEG risks... ok - thanks.

[horndean eagle] 17/10/2019 19:06

Fear over collapse in house prices. Part of the reason why JUST had been whacked in the first place.

[scrapheap] 17/10/2019 09:38

Why is the price seemingly a proxy for a brexit deal?

[cjac39] 15/10/2019 21:06

mainly hedge funds unwinding brexit shorts i suspect. however its been artificially so low it could pop loads on fundamental as its worth 90-100p min all dya long

[robsy2] 15/10/2019 20:39

I have no special insight but was struck by the new ceo’s comment that ‘my job is to maximise shareholder value, with no options excluded’
I see that as quite bullish. A bid ? Or just cheap anyway? It just looks too cheap.

[bobbybullet] 15/10/2019 20:07

Significant price movement over last couple of weeks. Either someone's snapping up shares prior to declaring an interest or institutional buyer recognition of discount to NAV. Anyone an opinion?

[scrapheap] 11/10/2019 10:48

so we're all hoping this brexit potential deal gets done then!!!

[finkie] 07/10/2019 12:06

still paying 8.125% from 9.5% hardly cheap debt.....

[scrapheap] 03/10/2019 07:04

Impressed to get this away given how debt capital markets for lower grade issuance seems to be a struggle at the mo

[18bt] 03/10/2019 06:43

These 2 announcements seem to represent further stabilising of the ship. New debt significantly cheaper than the last 2 debt raises and not that much PLACL debt tendered, so a capital strengthening. Demand for new debt would seem to imply that some are now happy with the ERM capital and accounting situation. DR is doing the right things and the market will give him credit in the end.

[cjac39] 30/9/2019 07:09

yes they are delighted with this but in pr speak its in line with their planning assumptions. they really need to work on who writes these things....

[18bt] 30/9/2019 07:00

There's a sense in their press release commenting on the PRA's PS that they can now move forward with some certainty.

[topvest] 28/9/2019 12:26

Tentative signs of this having bottomed, and started a recovery.

[cjac39] 28/9/2019 11:01

£1bln is my personal guess based on npv of cash flows and closed to new biz.

[fez77] 28/9/2019 10:22

As someone who has very little of the knowledge that others on this thread have, can anyone work out roughly what the current value of these shares would be? Albeit it may not be reflected in the current share price!

[cjac39] 27/9/2019 10:50

pra has published EVT and lowered the deferment rate to 0.5% which is less onerous than i think market expecting yet shares go down....very curious

[cjac39] 26/9/2019 09:58

still quite jumpy and thinly traded but i would imagine from here on its only going to be positive news stories about realigning capital (yesterdays announcement), sharing new biz origination with other peoples capital (more reinsurance, DB JV) and cost cutting (HUB is up for sale apparently). PRA announcements on EVT under stress could be a headwind but they have flagged up how much they think that costs and i doubt would have done that without some guidance from PRA. still reckon its at 50% of conservative fair value so im not selling any until its back over 75p

[topvest] 19/9/2019 19:42

I like the CEO - he talks about capital, shareholder value etc. The Rodney bloke just talked about sales and profit and ignored cash flow and capital. He was incentivised incorrectly and ran the business into the ground. Looks like the share price is responding to what's going on, at last. Lots of potential to restore shareholder value if they focus on proper capital allocation.

[scrapheap] 19/9/2019 06:32

Yes - the for sale sign is up (still)

[robsy2] 19/9/2019 06:11

The new ceo ends his piece by saying ‘my job is to maximise shareholder value, with no options excluded’
I see that as quite bullish.